Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

5 PM EST UPDATE:

New Orleans:

Anthony Davis is doubtful, Elfrid Payton is out, Darius Miller is out, and Julius Randle is probable. With Payton out, continue to expect Jrue Holiday to run the point and see a usage increase. He gets even more of a bump without Davis. Moore and Mirotic also see a usage bump without Davis on the floor. It's unclear if Okafor or Randle will start but Randle is the guy you want. The line on this game has gone from POR -4.5 to POR -8.5. I'm a bit skeptical of the possible blowout, especially with New Orleans on the second night of a back to back after a tough game in Golden State last night. These guys are GPP options only for me.

Boston:

Jaylen Brown is a game time decision. Local reports here in Boston are putting him as more doubtful. Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier would both see a bump in minutes and be viable options in tournaments though I don't love this game overall.

Sacremento:

De'Aaron Fox is probable in a great matchup against the Hawks. He continues to play big minutes despite being on the injury report on a daily basis.

That's it for the news today! Good luck in your contests!

NBA DFS. A magical place where we learn several minutes after the games start that players aren't available. I was on Tyus Jones last night also. Frustrating, yes, but nothing you can do about it. Unfortunately, it's just part of DFS, especially in the NBA. Fortunately, because of my game selection (H2H, 3, 5, 10, and 20 man contests) he was incredibly high owned, so it wasn't a total wash. But it sounds like many of you were negatively impacted by it. Maybe the new FanDuel rule isn't so bad after all?

This is as good a time as any to remind all of you new DFS players about how important bankroll management is. Don't be the guy that deposits his money and then plays his entire budget in one night. If you do that, and then something like what happened with Tyus Jones happens, it would have been easier to just light your money on fire. Stick to a plan, no more than 5% to 10% of your total bankroll should be in play on any given night. This way, when stuff like last night happens, you can just shrug it off and say "oh well, what's tomorrow's slate look like?"

With that said, we've got a six game Thursday night slate to talk about. We got one of the biggest pieces of news already yesterday when it was announced that Giannis Antetokounmpo has cleared concussion protocol and will play against Boston tonight. The other more major injury news we will need to monitor is Anthony Davis. He is "expected" to play in the second night of a back to back after missing several games with an elbow issue but there's always the possibility of this changing, so just be aware.

Games to Target

We are missing Vegas information on one game tonight between the Pelicans and Blazers which could become interesting if we think it will stay competitive. For now, there is one game that really stands out to me from a fantasy standpoint:

Kings @ Hawks (SAC -1.5, 231 O/U)

The surprising 5-3 Sacramento Kings are 1.5 point favorites on the road in Atlanta tonight. This game should produce at least a couple of monster fantasy lines, as we are looking at the team with the fastest pace of play (Atlanta) against the team with the second fastest pace of play (Sacramento). Both teams are average at best on defense, with the Hawks ranked 12th in defensive rating at 107.2 and the Kings ranked 15th at 108.6. I'm particularly interested in the Sacramento side of this game as it's (technically) a pace up spot for them. They are seventh in the league in points per game, and the Hawks are 22nd in the league in opponent points per game allowed. This should be an extremely high scoring back and forth affair that may likely have a lot of mistakes along the way but should still, ultimately, lead to fantasy production.

Injury Report

Guards

Russell Westbrook, OKC (DK: $10.7K, FD: $12K, Yahoo: $55)

The Hornets have been an above average test for point guards so far this season, ranking 17th in fantasy points allowed to the position. This can, at least somewhat, be attributed to two games against Cameron Payne, who isn't much of a fantasy producer and has skewed the results a bit. The matchup-proof Westbrook is a different story and Kemba Walker is not a threatening individual matchup. He ranked 44th among point guards in DRPM last season with a -0.55. After missing the first two games of the season, Westbrook has come out strong, playing 35.1 minutes per game and earning 1.59 fantasy points per minute. This has resulted in 50 or more fantasy points in three of his four starts. He's averaging a double-double with 29.2 points per game and ten rebounds. He has one of the highest usage rates of any player this season at 36.5%.

Trae Young, ATL (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.3K, Yahoo: $27)

I have yet to roster the super talented rookie this season. He's been pretty volatile up to this point, which is to be expected for an inexperienced player who is basically being thrown into the fire on a team with low expectations. He typically hovers somewhere in the 25-35 fantasy point range, which actually makes him a little expensive today, but he has flashed a 60+ point ceiling. This game should play at an incredibly fast pace, with the Hawks ranked first in pace of play and the Kings ranked second. Atlanta is 12th in defensive rating at 107.2 and Sacramento is 15th at 108.6. Sacramento is allowing both the 20th most opponent points per game and assists per game, which sets up nicely for Young who is averaging 20 points and 6.4 assists. Despite being a rookie, he has a very high usage rate at 26.7% and he's playing over 30 minutes per game. The Kings are 21st in fantasy points allowed to point guards. I think Young, with some extra opportunities tonight, exceeds his salary expectations.

Collin Sexton, CLE (DK: $4.6K, FD: $5K, Yahoo: $11)

Sexton isn't the starter but he's playing more minutes than George Hill at this point. Since the Cavaliers are heading toward (already in?) full tank mode, I would expect this trend to continue until Sexton ultimately takes the job over completely. Over the last five games, he's played 28, 25, 25, 23, and 28 minutes per game. Hill, meanwhile, 28, 24, 23, 29, and 20. Both players have performed well, but Sexton is standing out with his 22.6% usage rate for such a cheap salary. Today is a difficult matchup against Denver, who is third in the league in overall defensive rating. But the one place they can be exploited is at the point guard position where Jamal Murray is a very weak individual defender. This is also a pace up spot with the Nuggets ranked 12th in pace of play and the Cavs ranked 21st, which could lead to a few extra opportunities for Sexton to put up fantasy points. There is little risk here, assuming he gets at least 25 minutes tonight. Cleveland has little reason to not give him the playing time, as they ultimately want to give him as much experience as possible. Even in a blowout situation, which is possible in this lopsided matchup, Sexton would be the guy in garbage time.

Forwards

Paul George, OKC (DK: $9.1K, FD: $9.3K, Yahoo: $39)

I'm waiting for the Thunder to explode. They are clearly under performing with a 2-4 record and only 22nd in points per game after finishing 12th last season. There is too much talent on this roster for that trend to continue. I really like the game environment here with a solid 229 O/U and a spread of only 1.5. This should be a close battle. Charlotte is not threatening on defense, ranking 17th with a 108.8 rating. George didn't have much success in this matchup last season but the Hornets have moved MKG, who is an excellent defender, to the bench and replaced him with Nicolas Batum who has a -1.07 DRPM. George should have an easier time with most of his minutes being matched up with Batum. The Hornets are 21st in fantasy points allowed to small forwards and George is hot right now with over 40 fantasy points in all except one game this season. He's averaging 34.2 minutes per game and 1.31 fantasy points per minute with an outstanding 29.2% usage rate.

Nemanja Bjelica, SAC (DK: $6.2K, FD: $7.2K, Yahoo: $20)

I've been trying very hard to avoid this situation but Bjelica is not making it easy for me. Every time he's had a big game I've just brushed it off as an outlier. There's very little in the numbers or his history that suggest he can continue to sustain this kind of production. But here we are, after four straight games of 40 fantasy points or more, I'm starting to wonder if this is real. The Kings, as a team, are over performing expectations, sitting at a comfortable 5-3 record. This is as good a spot as any for him to continue producing, as this game has the highest O/U on the slate at 231, the closest spread at just 1.5 points, and of course, the fastest projected pace of play. All of this adds up to a ton of possessions and a ton of opportunities to put up fantasy points. He's not standing out in any one category but he's filling the stat sheet by contributing in multiple ways, averaging 17.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.6 steals/blocks per game. He's had two double-digit rebound games and could have an advantage in that area again tonight as Atlanta continues to be thin in the front court. This no longer feels like point chasing as I originally thought and if we look at his average production over the past four games, he's still a bit too cheap for the expected return.

Robert Covington, PHI (DK: $5.4K, FD: $6.5K, Yahoo: $23)

Speaking of filling the stat sheet, Robert Covington is doing exactly that in the early going. He can often be a difficult player to trust in fantasy basketball, as we typically look for offensive stats when choosing players to roster. Covington does not contribute much at that end of the floor with just a 14% usage rate. Defense is where he makes his money and he continues to earn it. He was first among small forwards last season and third overall with a DRPM of 4.24. He's currently averaging two steals and 1.8 blocks per game. This is especially important tonight as the Clippers are giving up the sixth most turnovers per game in the league at 16.4. He's also adding a bit more on offense than usual, putting up double-digit shot attempts in five straight games and averaging 13.6 points per game. This has lead to 30 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. As long as he can maintain his near fantasy point per minute rate (currently 0.90) and continue averaging 35.5 minutes per game, he should have no problem exceeding value at his very low price tag.

Centers

Nikola Jokic, DEN (DK: $10.1K, FD: $10.3K, Yahoo: $49)

My only concern here is a possible blowout, but with Denver on the road, Vegas has them installed as only 5.5 point favorites, so I wouldn't view that as a reason to fade here. This is an awesome matchup for Jokic as Cleveland has been getting crushed by centers, including allowing 43 fantasy points in 27 minutes to Alex Len two nights ago who had been very ineffective before that game. Cleveland is 26th in opponent points allowed per game and 29th in total defense. Even better is they are 25th in opponent points allowed in the paint, allowing 53.1 per game. They are also 18th in rebounding compared to 8th for Denver with Jokic leading the charge averaging 10.6 rebounds per game. Denver is also third in the league in second chance points, which again, Jokic plays a big role on the offensive glass. To cap it off, as we highlighted in this article a couple of days ago, Tristan Thompson graded out as the worst individual defender at the center position last season, ranking 57th out of 57th. All of this adds up to a ceiling game for Jokic. He's my favorite player on the slate.

Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.3K, Yahoo: $25)

I've actually been picking on WCS recently when he had some tough matchups but tonight seems like a good night to pivot to using him instead. By now, I've drilled into your brain the fact that this game will be fast and high scoring, so no need to repeat myself there (except I just did). The Kings are fourth in the league in points scored in the paint with 58 per game which sets up well for Cauley-Stein to put up some points. Atlanta is solid at defending the paint (8th) but again, with the pace, there should be plenty of opportunities here even if they are efficient. He's not the strongest on the boards, averaging 9 per game, but this is a rare night where he actually has an advantage as Dedmon is averaging only 6.8 per game and Len is averaging only 5.9 per game. The Hawks are allowing 10.3 rebounds per game to opposing centers. He should be able to pick up the double-double here. As long as this game stays close, he's looking at 30+ minutes. He's played over 30 minutes in four straight games and scored 45 fantasy points or more in two of those.

Al Horford, BOS (DK: $6K, FD: $6.7K, Yahoo: $21)

I don't love this game as a whole, as it should be a defensive battle. The Celtics are first in total defense and the Bucks are second. The Celtics are first in opponent points allowed per game and the Bucks are fourth. The Celtics are seventh in opponent points allowed in the paint and the Bucks are sixth. It's not appealing from a DFS perspective. With that said, however, Brook Lopez is a terrible defensive center, ranking 49th out of 57 in DRPM last season at 0.09. Milwaukee is in the top ten in fantasy points allowed to every position except center, where they actually rank dead last. The last five centers to face them have all had at least 30 fantasy points and three of those players played less than 30 minutes. This is the one place where you can exploit them. Horford had a lot of success in this matchup last year with multiple games over 40 fantasy points and one game with 57 fantasy points (in 44 minutes). He's not a guy I plan to be moving salary around to fit in today but I do like the price and the floor is strong. So if I ultimately landed on him in the course of my roster construction, I'd be happy with that.

Freeroll

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll!

• 1st Place: serrano_markees: 356.25

• 2nd Place: mjj792: 351.50

• 3rd Place: segler12: 344.75

Send a DM to @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

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• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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