- LineStarยฎ Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA Plays 11/12 | Laying the Groundwork
Top NBA Plays 11/12 | Laying the Groundwork
There's news out of the Big Apple that the Knicks are 'laying the groundwork' to fire their coach. You never want to see somebody lose their job, but 19 wins in your first 92 games isn't exactly ideal. Everybody who played NBA DFS consistently also has a story about David Fizdale and how his draw-playing-time-out-of-a-hat strategy has cost them. It's made Knicks players unrosterable - well, also because they are bad.
Hey look, those Knicks are in action tonight as part of an 8-game card. Overall, it's looking like a more defensive night with just one betting total in the 220s. Let's see how it breaks down:
Tonight's DFS Headlines
Andre Drummond ($8900) played 29 minutes last night and Derrick Rose (out today) returned from a hamstring issue to start and log 19. Could be a big night for Miami (O/U 218.5).
The Sixers will rest Al Horford tonight and Ben Simmons ($7400) could sit again as well, especially considering Philadelphia is a -9.5 favorite vs. Cleveland. The LineStar usage matrix sees a nearly 12 fantasy point boost for Joel Embiid ($9,400) with those two out of the 76ers lineup.
The Pacers and Thunder both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in possessions per game but are also a respectable 12th and 13th in defensive efficiency. Does that destroy value for a Domantas Sabonis ($8400), Malcolm Brogdon ($7,600) or even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,000)?
The Bulls could be a bit shorthanded when they face the Knicks tonight. Otto Porter, Jr. is ruled out and Lauri Markkanen ($6,400) will suit up but is struggling through an oblique injury. It's a ๐จREVENGE GAME๐จ for New York's Bobby Portis ($5,500) who really doesn't let go of a grudge against his former squad.
The Nets have an interesting matchup tonight as Brooklyn's #2 pace is up against Utah's #2 defensive efficiency unit and 28th ranked squad in possessions per game. Caris Levert is out of the lineup for the Nets though which gives a boost to Kyrie Irving (+6.4 fp) and Spencer Dinwiddie (+6.1% usage).
Guards
Jimmy Butler (DK: $7,800 FD: $9400 Y! $39)
It could be a big night for Jimmy Butler. First off, he's facing a Detroit team that is on leg two of a back-to-back and a bit banged up in the back court with Reggie Jackson being out. Derrick Rose played Monday, but has been battling a hamstring injury and is out today. Butler would have loved to exploit his ex-teammate Rose in a ๐จREVENGE GAME๐จ scenario as well. Butler has landed in a perfect lineup 6 straight games and should continue to get big usage and opportunities with Justise Winslow (head) and Derrick Jones, Jr. (hip) out and rookie Tyler Herro (ankle) and Kelly Olynyk (knee) also added to the injury report.
Spencer Dinwiddie (DK: $5500 FD: $5500 Y! $19)
Bad matchup but good price for Spencer Dinwiddie up against Utah's 3rd lowest pace and 2nd best defensive efficiency. The Jazz are on part two of a back-to-back though and four starters logged 30+ minutes last night vs. the Jazz. Dinwiddie gets a boost with Caris Levert out of the lineup as well and Brooklyn still has the league's 2nd highest pace. Dinwiddie has field goal attempts of 18 and 16 the last two games, is averaging 5 assists and 4 rebounds per game over that span,
Bogdan Bogdanovic (DK: $5400 FD: $5600 Y! $16)
There's going to be a lot of touches available for Sacramento with De'Aaron Fox out for a month with an ankle injury. The LineStar usage matrix gives a 13.94 fantasy point and an 8.6% court time boost for Bogdan Bogdanovic as the biggest benefactor. He has the versatility of a G/F in DraftKings and is in the highest implied scoring game of the night 226.5 as the Kings host Portland. For that price, it's worth it to see what he can do in his first 30+ minute game of the season.
๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐
Some people are liking Yogi Ferrell ($3000) in a GPP play, as he's in the same Sacramento situation with Fox out of the lineup. Trae Young ($9200) took 30 field goal attempts on Sunday, so you have to like that usage. Ricky Rubio's ($7700) price is climbing, but he's getting more and more shots to go with other peripheral stats (16,11,14, 12 last four).
Forwards
Bobby Portis (DK: $5,500 FD: $5,600 Y!: $15)
He isn't going to fly under anybody's radar tonight but it's still a good price tag for Bobby Portis in a potential ceiling game. Portis definitely finds motivation playing against his old team Chicago, scoring 28 points and grabbing 11 rebounds in the first meeting this year on October 28th. Portis averaged 15/9/3 in three games vs. the Bulls last year, making this a true ๐จREVENGE GAME๐จ. Chicago's Wendell Carter, Jr. has already 'called out' Portis and the last thing you want to do is fire up this maniac. Mitchell Robinson, Elfrid Payton, and Dennis Smith, Jr. all continue to be out for New York so Coach Fizdale is going to have to be real creative to limit Portis' minutes tonight - he'll still probably find a way though.
Will Barton (DK: $6,000 FD: $6,600 Y!: $18)
Michael Porter, Jr. was activated for Denver on Halloween and Will Barton has been in the perfect lineup in the three games he's played since. Porter is getting less than 10 minutes a game, but Barton knows he has competition coming for playing time. Barton has 38, 36, and 32 minutes the last three with field goal attempts of 16, 12, and 10. He's got some unexpectedly good rebounding numbers as well, averaging just under 10 per the last three games. Atlanta doesn't run the pace they did last season (so far) , but it's still a nice boost for Denver.
Tobias Harris (DK: $6800 FD: $7300 Y! $31)
No sense in bringing Ben Simmons back tonight vs. Cleveland is there? Al Horford is already listed as out (rest) and who knows the minutes that Joel Embiid will get as the 76ers are nearly a double-digit favorite. That leaves a lot of potential shots available for Tobias Harris, who wants to scratch his itch after going just 6 for 9 from the field on Sunday. Harris had at least 14 field goal attempts in 6 of 7 games prior and should be able to get back to that number tonight.
๐๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐๐
Taj Gibson ($4200) could have some value going back to Chicago tonight. Is Mario Hezonja ($4200) a deep sleeper for GPP in a higher scoring game with the Suns vs. the Kings?
Center
Bam Adebayo (DK: $6,800, FD; $8200 Y!:$28 )
Normally not a great play vs. Drummond and the Pistons but Detroit comes in on leg two of a back-to-back. Griffin is out tonight and Drummond played nearly 30 minutes last night too, so his usage could be scarce as well. That's good for Miami's Bam Adebayo who has gone for 49 and 35 fantasy points the last two.
๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐
Andre Drummond ($8900) is on a back-to-back and he had just 28 fp the last time he was matched up with Spoelstra's Miami defense. If you have the budget, Joel Embiid ($9400) isn't a bad play with Horford out for Philadelphia. Horford's absence also increases the value of Tristan Thompson ($6700) who is at a nice price point.
Lots of NBA this week with another 7 games on tap for Wednesday night Make sure to check out that LineStar chat tonight for some valuable insight and angles from fellow DFS aficionados. You can also follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk.
Freeroll
The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:
1st Place: Your Choice: One month LineStar premium membership, a LineStar T-Shirt or $10 via PayPal.
Bonus: If you place 1st in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you can choose 2 prizes.
Please Note: While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as youโd like, you can only win a prize 1 time.
Winners: DM us on Twitter with a screenshot of your win to claim your prize.
๐ฅ SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play
Today's SuperDraft multiplier must-play is Jimmy Butler. Some injuries to the Miami back court as well as a potential street ball game with old teammate Derrick Rose (and Detroit on a back-to-back).
๐จ Bonus: Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium
Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!
Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.