Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

First and foremost, for those of you who have or are actively serving our country - Happy Veteran's Day. Thank you for your service.

Welcome to a nine-game Monday slate. There's a lot to like today with some good game environments and also plenty of value already available and more injury news to watch. In case you live under a rock and didn't hear, Jimmy Butler was traded to the Philadelphia 76ers over the weekend. The trade actually can't become official until a call is placed with the league office, which is closed on the weekend, so that is expected to happen this morning. Philadelphia has said that Butler will make his debut on Wednesday, which will open up some value on the 76ers side of the ball as they are sending away Robert Covington and Dario Saric. Minnesota has not said anything about the availability of their new additions but I would be surprised if they played tonight, which will create value on the Minnesota side as well. The Timberwolves are also expected to be without Jeff Teague and both Derrick Rose and Andrew Wiggins are questionable. I have no clue who will play for them tonight. We also have Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry expected to miss tonight's game and a few other noteworthy players to watch including Mirotic, Gordon, and Green.

Games to Target

Pelicans @ Raptors (TOR -9, 231.5 O/U)

This game features the highest total on tonight's slate. The Pelicans are 4th in points per game and the Raptors are 3rd. The Pelicans are 7th in total rebounding while the Raptors are 9th. Both teams score well in the paint with New Orleans ranking 2nd and the Raptors ranking 6th. The advantage here is on defense, as Toronto ranks 9th in total defensive rating, 7th in opponent points allowed per game, and 10th in opponent points allowed in the paint. New Orleans ranks 25th in total defensive rating, 27th in opponent points allowed per game, and 26th in opponent points allowed in the paint. The Pelicans get by on overwhelming offense and playing at a very fast pace but Toronto should be able to slow them down with their strong defense while keeping up offensively. The Pelicans players could put up big fantasy days but it will be hard to find value with how inefficient they will likely be in this spot. I prefer the Toronto players here.

Nets @ Timberwolves (MIN -3, 224.5 O/U)

Should be plenty of opportunities for offense here, as neither team plays defense well. The Timberwolves rank dead last in total defensive rating at 114.3 and the Nets are 22nd at 109.8. Minnesota is actually allowing the 2nd most opponent points per game as well, which gives a nice boost to the Nets' offense. This is a massive pace up game for the Nets who are ranked 28th in pace of play while the Timberwolves rank ninth. These teams are middle of the pack in points per game and rebounds per game. The Nets are strong outside shooters, taking the seventh most three pointers per game in the league and having the 10th best three point shooting percentage. That sets up nicely, as the Timberwolves are ranked 26th in opponent three point shooting percentage and 25th in opponent three point attempts allowed per game. Brooklyn also scores the ninth most points in the paint but only allows the fifth most opponent points allowed in the paint while Minnesota is ranked 16th in points in the paint but 25th in opponent points allowed in the paint. On paper, this game actually sets up better for the Nets but we should also keep in mind the usage that opens up for Minnesota with Jimmy Butler (and possibly others) not available.

Warriors @ Clippers (GS -3, 228 O/U)

This game feels pretty similar to the Bucks against Warriors game on Thursday of last week that turned into a high scoring game but a surprising blowout in favor of the Bucks. I don’t see a blowout happening here but I do see a competitive game between two strong teams. They are both top ten in pace of play and points per game. They had both been top ten in total defense as well, though Golden State dropped to 15th after that loss to the Bucks. Despite the strong defenses, Golden State is giving up the 16th most opponent points per game and the Clippers are giving up the 19th most opponent points per game, which we can likely attribute to how fast both of these teams play. They are first (Golden State) and second (LAC) in three point shooting percentage. The Clippers score a lot more of their points from the paint (52.8 per game, 7th in the NBA) but that’s more a product how of these teams are built. The Warriors offense funnels through Curry, Thompson, and Durant, who take most of their shots away from the rim. Their big men don’t score much but are strong defensively and on the boards where as the Clippers rely more heavily on their big men to score. If Draymond misses tonight, I'll have even more interest in the Clippers than I already do. Golden State is clearly a team to target, especially with Stephen Curry expected to miss and the usage that opens up.

Injury Report

Guards

Derrick Rose, MIN (DK: $7.5K, FD: $6.9K, Yahoo: $23)

This is an interesting situation. His price is absolutely getting past the point where you are comfortable locking him in and there are several good (and cheap) point guard options on this slate tonight. But we have some pretty special circumstances brewing tonight with how shorthanded the Timberwolves are likely to be. Jeff Teague has already been ruled out (UPDATE: he's not a game time decision), Jimmy Butler is gone, Dario Saric and Robert Covington won't be available tonight, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable (UPDATE: game time decision). If we take Wiggins, Butler, and Teague off the floor this season Rose sees a 9.54% usage increase on top of his already very strong 26.1% true usage rate. What's really interesting is if we put Wiggins back on the floor, Rose actually gets an even higher usage rate increase at 11.9% yet I'd be willing to be he'll become less popular if Wiggins plays. This will be a situation that I monitor closely tonight.

Klay Thompson, GS (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7K, Yahoo: $29)

Quinn Cook, with good reason, will obviously be popular today as he'll replace Curry in the starting lineup and see a big boost in his minutes. You could argue though that Thompson is the real winner here from a fantasy perspective. With both Curry and Green off the floor (Green is questionable) Thompson sees a 7.97% usage increase which equals an additional 11.6 fantasy points per game. This would put him right around a 30% true usage rate tonight which makes him too cheap for how much the Warriors will rely on him for offense. The Warriors have the second highest implied total on the board tonight.

Furkan Korkmaz, PHI (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.7K, Yahoo: $10)

Similar to the Timberwolves tonight, the 76ers are also going to be a little shorthanded with Jimmy Butler unavailable and obviously Saric and Covington are both gone now. If we take Saric and Covington off the floor for Philadelphia this season, it's Korkmaz who sees one of the higher usage increases at 2.97%. Markelle Fultz actually sees the highest usage increase at 3.79% but I just don't trust Fultz to come through in real-life or fantasy. Clearly, Philadelphia doesn't either or they wouldn't have gone out and made a trade for Jimmy Butler when they already have the number one overall pick sitting on their bench. In Saturday's game, the first without Saric and Covington, Fultz played 25 minutes and scored 24 fantasy points while Korkmaz played 23 minutes and scored 25 fantasy points. Not a huge difference in overall production but when you also consider the price difference then Korkmaz is the guy I'm looking at. He'll be on my shortlist of available "punt" options tonight.

Forwards

Paul George, OKC (DK: $9.7K, FD: $10.3K, Yahoo: $44)

It feels borderline insane to be considering George at this price but this offense flows through him when Westbrook isn't available and that's exactly the situation we have here tonight. He sees a 2.29% usage increase with Westbrook off the floor. Combine that with a near perfect matchup tonight against the Suns and it's difficult to not have George on your radar today. The Suns are 27th in total defensive rating, 21st in opponent points allowed per game, and dead last in opponent points allowed per game in the paint. Basically, they don't play defense. George, on the other hand, has over 50 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He's stuffing the stat sheet with 19.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game over his last five. He has also played 35 minutes or more in four straight.

Caris LeVert, BKN (DK: $6.4K, FD: $7.2K, Yahoo: $27)

He did leave Saturday's game early with a knee injury but was available to come back in later in the game. The Nets were getting blown out though, so there was no point in putting him back on the floor. He's been removed from the injury report for tonight. This actually helps us as the poor fantasy result his last time out created a significant price drop of $600 on the two main sites and $3 on Yahoo (that's a lot for Yahoo). The Nets are one of my favorite teams to target, as we talked about earlier in the article. Minnesota is dead last in total defensive rating, they are allowing the second most opponent points per game, and they play at the ninth fastest pace in the league. Fast teams who don't play defense create fantasy goldmines on both sides of the matchup. LeVert leads the Nets in minutes per game (30.7), points per game (19.7) and shots per game (14.7). He should be able to score at will tonight and the extra possessions due to the up tempo nature this game creates will only increase his opportunities for production.

Pascal Siakam, TOR (DK: $5.9K, FD: $6.2K, Yahoo: $21)

As discussed earlier, this game should be very competitive with Toronto getting an edge because of their strong defense. The Raptors are a rare team who will be able to keep up with the Pelicans at the offensive end while making their lives miserable on the defensive end. Serge Ibaka will have his hands full trying to contain Anthony Davis tonight and that should open things up for Siakam to get some extra opportunities. He's been as consistent as it gets recently from a floor perspective, with four straight games of 30 fantasy points or more. He's also flashed his upside with two games of over 40 fantasy points. The Pelicans are dead last in fantasy points allowed to the power forward position over their last five games. He'll likely see a small boost in minutes, if we assume this game stays close, along with a few extra opportunities given the pace up game environment against the Pelicans who play at the fourth fastest pace in the league.

Centers

Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN (DK: $8.9K, FD: $10.3K, Yahoo: $38)

This is basically the lock of the day. He has been incredibly volatile to start this season, which makes it difficult to have as much confidence in him as we should, but everything points to a blowup spot here for KAT. For starters, we have the obvious situation with the Minnesota roster. If we take Butler, Teague, and Wiggins off the floor, Towns sees a ridiculous 24.39% usage increase (small sample size only 20 minutes). Even if Wiggins plays tonight and we add him back on to the floor, Towns still benefits from a 5.34% usage increase and an additional 14.8 fantasy points per game. You basically have to start all your rosters tonight with Towns (and possibly Rose). The Nets are 22nd in total defensive rating at 109.8. They've been getting hammered by centers recently, ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position over their last five games. Towns is averaging a double-double during that same span including 21.6 points and 11.2 rebounds in 35 minutes per game. He's either going to crush your lineup with a disappointing 30 fantasy points or win you the money with 60 or more. I'm having a hard time seeing how he doesn't come out on the higher end of that range tonight.

Nikola Vucevic, ORL (DK: $8.5, FD: $8.5, Yahoo: $32)

This is a little off the board and there are a couple of red flags here worth monitoring, but still, the game environment sets up really well for Vucevic. First, this is the second night of a back to back, which isn't ideal but the good news is he only played 26 minutes last night in a blowout win, so we can likely weigh this less than we normally would in terms of the impact on his fantasy production. The other piece to consider is the status of Aaron Gordon. He missed last night's game with an ankle injury and is questionable for today. If he sits, then you really need to consider Vucevic in this spot tonight. If Gordon plays, I still like Vucevic though obviously he's not as appealing. The game itself is perfect for the Magic, as it will be up tempo with Washington ranked seventh in pace of play and dead last in opponent points per game allowed. Orlando also has a significant advantage near the rim, as the Wizards rank 29th in total rebounding and 26th in opponent second chance points allowed. This makes Vucevic a near lock for a double-double tonight with plenty of upside for more. Oddly enough, these two teams just played each other on Friday and he had 21 points and 14 rebounds (Gordon played 42 minutes in that game).

Jarrett Allen, BKN (DK: $5.1K, FD: $5.9K, Yahoo: $22)

I mentioned already how much I liked Towns but that doesn't mean we can't like the player he's up against either. Towns should dominate on the offensive end tonight but that doesn't fix his defensive issues which will leave the door open for Allen to play well also. I've highlighted already how much I like the Nets tonight in a pace up game against a bad defense. I especially like Brooklyn in the paint where they score the ninth most points in the league and Minnesota is ranked 25th in opponent points allowed in the paint. Allen is impossible to predict, which makes him a tournament-only option. He disappoints in games where he should play well and then he surprises you and puts up 44 fantasy points against the Nuggets who are one of the toughest matchups in the league. His minutes are a bit unstable but he should play at the higher end of his range tonight, as this game will likely stay competitive considering all the pieces the Timberwolves will be missing. The upside is too good to ignore, especially at this price, and he may go overlooked with so many people focused on the Minnesota side of this game.

Freeroll

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Here's a link for today's freeroll.

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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