Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

We have only three games on tap tonight. One of them is shaping up as a complete blowout and the other two both feature teams who have basically their entire roster on the injury report. Do not be afraid to leave salary on the table tonight, as there is so much value available. Even with only three games, I almost think it might be impossible to use the entire salary cap. Let's briefly take a look at each game and then we'll run through a couple of value options (there are a lot of them) at each position.

Games to Target

Hornets @ Cavaliers (CHA -7.5, 218 O/U)

On a normal night, Charlotte would clearly stand out in this matchup. The Cavs are next to last in total defensive rating and 22nd in opponent points allowed per game. This should give the Hornets the opportunity to be efficient with their shots against a very soft defense. Tonight, however, with basically the entire Cleveland team on the injury report and looking unlikely to play, we are going to have several players forced into some serious minutes. On a full game slate I’d be less interested, as the total isn’t overly appealing at 218.5 and the pace of play will be on the slower side with both teams ranked in the bottom half of the league. But on a three game slate, there’s going to be quite a few usable pieces for our rosters in this game. Charlotte isn’t the easiest matchup in the world, ranking middle of the pack in defensive rating and 11th in opponent points allowed per game, but the value available from the Cavs is going to far outweigh the matchup.

Rockets @ Nuggets (DEN -4, 214.5 O/U)

Houston is a complete disaster right now and removing Carmelo Anthony is not going to solve their problems. It won’t get any easier tonight either, taking on a very difficult Denver team. The Nuggets ranked fourth in total defensive rating, second in fewest opponent points allowed per game, and fifth in total rebounding. Houston is essentially the exact opposite, ranking 19th in total defensive rating. They are allowing the second-most opponent points per game and rank 25th in rebounding. One of the Rockets biggest issues is three point shooting. They take the most attempts per game in the league (42.3 per game) but are ranked 25th in three point shooting percentage at just 32.7%. They either need to hope their shots start falling or find other ways to generate offense. Denver is not an overpowering team offensively, ranking 17th in points per game and 25th in pace of play, but they should score at will tonight against a bad defense and dominate the glass. The Nuggets will be particularly dangerous near the rim where they rank fifth in points in the paint while Houston ranks 23rd in opponent points allowed in the paint. Houston does have several players on the injury report. So while I much prefer the Denver side of this game, there is going to be some value available on the Rockets tonight.

Hawks @ Warriors (GS -12, 229 O/U)

This could get ugly in a hurry, as I don’t see much of a scenario where the Hawks defense is able to stop (or even slow down) the Golden State offense. In addition to the Hawks being 23rd in defensive rating and 29th in opponent points allowed per game, they also play at the fastest pace in the NBA. This means the top scoring team in the league is going to play up tempo against a team that allows the second most opponent points per game. Yikes. I can’t imagine Stephen Curry would return tonight given how much the Warriors should be in control. Our best bet would be for Curry and maybe another member of Golden State to sit and give this game a chance of staying competitive. Otherwise, I’m likely targeting more bench players here that are still key parts of the rotation but would likely see a minutes boost in the event of a blowout.

Injury Report

Guards

Quinn Cook, GS (DK: $5.5K, FD: $5.8K, Yahoo: $15)

I have to assume that people are going to be jumping off of this train as quickly as they can after last night's performance. I'm going to view this as an outlier. It was a tough matchup against Patrick Beverly, which is one of the reasons I didn't like him last night. Tonight, it's a completely different story against a weak Hawks defense that plays at the fastest pace in the league. Like I said earlier, the top scoring offense in an up tempo game equals money in the bank. Cook will be on fresh legs tonight, only playing 22 minutes yesterday, while the rest of his teammates played well into overtime. If this game gets out of hand, which Vegas is expecting, Cook should soak up the garbage time minutes as well. If you're into revenge narratives at all, Cook also used to play for the Hawks, and he was cut. I really hope everyone fades him tonight due to recency bias because I will be all over this play myself.

Rodney Hood, CLE (DK: $5.4K, FD: $5.4K, Yahoo: $16)

I guess we shouldn't be surprised that Cleveland is such a mess, what did we expect would happen after LeBron left? In addition to the 1-11 record, they have an incredibly long injury list right now. From a fantasy perspective, this is going to create a lot of value as certain players are going to be forced into pretty heavy minutes. In the backcourt, it looks like George Hill and Kyle Korver will definitely miss, while JR Smith is questionable with an illness. If Smith plays while the other guys sit, Hood sees the largest usage increase on the team at 3.68%, equaling an additional 8.09 fantasy points per game. He's not the most efficient player, averaging about .80 fantasy points per minute but that should see a bump tonight with the extra usage and he also has a pretty clear path to 30+ minutes in this game. He has multiple games already this season of over 30 fantasy points and I think we can expect a similar outcome tonight in this situation.

Forwards

Larry Nance, CLE (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.9K, Yahoo: $14)

Love is out, Dekker is out, Osman is out. Who is going to play the power forward minutes on this team? Channing Frye? Nance is a lock for at least 30 minutes tonight. It's not always pretty but he typically finds a way to produce when he's given the playing time. In their last game, he went just one for eight from the field but still managed to grab 14 rebounds and pick up 31 fantasy points despite the terrible shooting night. This is a pretty good matchup, as Charlotte is not particularly strong in the paint or around the rim. They are 16th in rebounding, 25th in opponent points allowed in the paint, and 18th in opponent second chance points allowed. Nance should get opportunities under the basket for some extra rebounds and potentially some easy second chance buckets on the offensive end. Charlotte is middle of the pack (15th) in offensive rebounds per game while Cleveland is quietly sixth in that category. It will probably make you a bit queasy to watch if you roster him but if we assume he gets the playing time, his chances of paying off this salary are strong.

Gary Clark, HOU (DK: $3.7K, FD: $5.1K, Yahoo: $10)

It would appear that James Ennis is falling out of favor in Houston because in their last game with both Gerald Green and Carmelo Anthony sidelined, it was Clark who picked up 33 minutes off the bench while Ennis played just 22. The other interesting piece about tonight's situation is the status of P.J Tucker. He played a whopping 40 minutes in their last game and Clark still got to play 33 minutes of his own. If Tucker misses (along with Green and Anthony), then Clark would literally play all the minutes he can handle while even Ennis would likely be looking at close to 30 minutes himself. Clark didn't blow anyone away in his opportunity but he stuffed the stat sheet with six points, eight rebounds and an assist resulting in 22 fantasy points. Obviously, that's not very efficient from a per minute standpoint but it was still a huge return on his near minimum salary. We wouldn't expect him to be efficient tonight anyway, in a very difficult matchup against the Nuggets who are one of the best defensive teams in the league. The opportunity for minutes and the very cheap price tag are the reason we should have interest here.

Centers

Tristan Thompson, CLE (DK: $5.7K, FD: $6.1K, Yahoo: $17)

This is pretty similar to the Larry Nance situation. There's basically nobody else to soak up these minutes. Both of these guys are going to have to play as much as possible just to get through this game. Thompson is very volatile but he's flashed some signs of brilliance recently (did I really just use Thompson and brilliance in the same sentence?) He has a double-double in three straight games including rebound totals of 16, 15, and 12. This has resulted in over forty fantasy points in two of his last three games. He's averaging 31 minutes per game over his last five games with 1.02 fantasy points per minute. It's really difficult to ignore the production and dare I say even the pretty strong floor/ceiling combination he's shown with all the additional playing time. Pairing Thompson and Nance together tonight could very well be the optimal lineup solution.

Alex Len, ATL (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5K, Yahoo: $10)

Alex Len just won't stay away from our lives. Every time he has a poor game, I think to myself the Hawks are finally just going to start Dwayne Dedmon. But nope, Len rolls back out there the next night. He hasn't been playing a ton of minutes but both guys are eating into each other's production enough that it's been a pure stay away situation. Tonight, Dedmon looks likely to miss the game, so we should have a situation where Len is forced into bigger minutes (25+) and Plumlee picks up whatever is left over. He's extremely unpredictable. He has a massive ceiling of close to 50 fantasy points but a floor that is legitimately in the negative numbers. He can break the slate if you catch him on the right night. So on days like today, we can feel confident he'll play at the higher end of his minutes range. It's typically a good idea to have some exposure if you're rolling out multiple entries. His playing time should be pretty secure already without Dedmon and if this game turns into a blowout, I think he still plays in garbage time as well. He averages right around a fantasy point per minute so 25 or more minutes tonight, which looks likely, gives you a good shot of at least meeting value. If he goes off, you're in a really good spot to jump the field.

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