Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

This is a massive eleven game slate tonight so we’ll keep the introduction short today. The only team on the second night of a back to back is Cleveland. We know at this point that Russell Westbrook will miss tonight’s game. Damian Lillard is probable, Nikola Mirotic and Andrew Wiggins, among others, are questionable. Jimmy Butler is expected to make his debut for Philadelphia. What we don’t know is the status of the players involved on the Timberwolves side of the trade. Originally, both sides had said their new additions would debut Wednesday night but none of the players were allowed to participate in yesterday’s practice with their new team because the paperwork making the trade official had still not been finalized. Philadelphia has still said that Butler will play but Minnesota hasn't given us any official word. The injury list is pretty long today so there will be plenty to check back on prior to lock, so be sure to leave yourself enough time to make adjustments on a slate of this size. Let’s get to work.

Games to Target

Wizards @ Cleveland (WAS -11.5, 217.5 O/U)

Both of these teams are horrendous and typically ones to avoid in DFS but tonight, against each other, this actually sets up nicely for fantasy production. The Wizards get the luxury of playing the one team tonight that is on the second night of a back to back. Cleveland is one of the better matchups for any team from a fantasy perspective, ranking dead last in defensive rating at 114.4. They rank 25th in opponent points allowed off turnovers, 27th in opponent points allowed in the paint, 28th in opponent three point shooting percentage allowed, and 23rd in total opponent points allowed. Basically, the opposing team can score on them pretty much however they want. Depending on injury news, the Cleveland side of the ball is also appealing against an equally bad defense in what will be a pace up game. Washington is 7th in pace of play and 12th in points per game but they are 28th in defense and dead last in opponent points per game. The total isn't overly appealing here but I do think there are some pieces we can consider.

Pelicans @ Timberwolves (MIN-1, 234.5 O/U)

On paper, this game has a ton of potential from a fantasy perspective but which players to use will depend on injuries and if the newest members of Minnesota suit up tonight. It will be very up tempo with New Orleans fourth in pace of play and Minnesota ninth. Both teams are strong offensively and put points on the board. The Pelicans are third in the league in points per game and the Timberwolves are 11th. If that doesn’t convince you, then add in the fact that neither team plays defense either. New Orleans is 27th in opponent points allowed per game and 26th in defensive rating. The Timberwolves are 28th in opponent points allowed per game and 29th in defensive rating. Two high powered fast offenses against two weak defenses. If this game is even remotely competitive, there should be a ton of fantasy production to go around.

Blazers @ Lakers (LAL -2.5, 227 O/U)

Targeting fantasy options from both sides of any game that the Lakers are involved in has been a pretty profitable decision so far. The Lakers are another team that plays quickly (third in pace), scores a lot of points (seventh) and doesn’t play defense (26th in opponent points allowed per game). This means a pace up game for the Blazers who also have a high powered offense (seventh in points per game) but a strong defense (fifth in opponent points per game). With the Lakers averaging a ridiculous 105.6 possessions per game, they should still be able to produce even in a bad matchup against a tough defense based on the sheer volume of opportunities they will see. Both sides of this game are worth a look.

Injury Report

Guards

John Wall, WAS (DK: $9.1K, FD: $10.2K, Yahoo: $42)

The Wizards are heavy favorites tonight. How bad do you have to be in order to be 11.5 point underdogs to the Washington Wizards? Cleveland Cavaliers bad, of course. The large spread doesn't surprise me with the Cavs incredibly banged up right now and playing on the second night of a back to back. Still, despite the possible blowout, it's really hard to ignore the Wizards players. It's speculation on my part but I could see a situation where they let the starters play full minutes anyway and just pile it on. Washington could use a good confidence booster. Regardless, Cleveland is last in the league in defensive rating, 23rd in points allowed per game, and 25th in opponent points allowed off turnovers. Washington, meanwhile, is 12th in points per game and third in opponent turnovers forced, with 17.2 per game. The Wizards should pick up a lot of easy fast break buckets tonight with the pace they run at. Wall is playing an insane 39.1 minutes per game and averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute over his last five games. If he gets anywhere close to that amount of playing time tonight against this defense, he'll crush his salary expectations.

Jrue Holiday, NO (DK: $8.5K, FD: $9K, Yahoo: $39)

This was another one of the games I highlighted earlier in the article that has a really strong environment for fantasy production. It will be extremely fast, with the Pelicans ranked fourth in pace and the Timberwolves ranked ninth. Both teams are in the top half of the league in scoring and the bottom half of the league in defense. Holiday continues to benefit from Elfrid Payton's absence and while he's getting closer to returning, he's not expected to play tonight. Nikola Mirotic is also still questionable so we'll have to see if we get more information after their shoot around this morning. If we pull both of those players off the floor, Holiday sees a nice 3.14% usage increase and an additional 6.45 fantasy points per game. We've seen this first hand recently, as he's had over 40 fantasy points in eight straight games and over 50 in two of his last three (since Mirotic also got hurt). He's averaging a double-double over his last five games with 23.2 points per game and 10.8 assists per game as the point guard in this offense. If both Payton and Mirotic miss again tonight, Holiday should be played with confidence.

Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN (DK: $4.9K, FD: $5.8K, Yahoo: $15)

It's awful that Caris LeVert got injured on Monday night. He was having such an outstanding start to his season. The good news is the injury turned out to be less serious than what it looked like when it happened and he's actually expected to return later this season. In the meantime, the Nets have a big hole to fill, particularly in the scoring department. That should create value in the DFS world on this team. If we take LeVert off the floor using our usage matrix tool, it's Spencer Dinwiddie who sees the largest increase at 5.27% and an additional 8.77 fantasy points per game. Those are big spikes considering his very low salary. He's already been averaging 26.5 minutes per game off the bench and he should get some additional time with LeVert's minutes now up for grabs. Over the last five games, he's averaged a fantasy point per minute and that should increase with the additional usage available. He should have no problem exceeding value in this spot tonight.

Forwards

Paul George, OKC (DK: $9.6, FD: $10.3, Yahoo: $45)

I'm going right back to the well again. I think I'll have to stop when his price goes over $10K on DraftKings but for now, he's still showing an ability to meet or exceed salary expectations at this price. Let's do a simple comparison and you can tell me which player you'd rather have tonight. LeBron James is $10.3K on DraftKings tonight. He's playing 32.7 minutes per game and averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute over his last five games. During that span he has 48, 31, 56, 39, and 44 fantasy points. George is $9.6K on DraftKings tonight. He's playing 37 minutes per game and averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute over his last five games. He has fantasy point totals of 52, 33, 57, 50, and 52 during that span. LeBron has one game over 50 in his last five and George has four, yet George is $700 cheaper. I cannot believe we live in a world where I want to play Paul George over LeBron James, but here we are. If they were the same price tonight, I would still pick George right now. Obviously, he's been helped by Westbrook being out and the 2% usage increase he sees but Westbrook is, once again, expected to miss, so we have the same situation again tonight. The Knicks are 21st in total defense and 18th in opponent points allowed per game. George should be able to exceed at least 50 fantasy points again here.

Serge Ibaka, TOR (DK: $6.2K, FD: $6.7K, Yahoo: $22)

Let's play a little game of which player doesn't belong. These are the top five fantasy-point-per-minute scores by forwards/centers over the last five games: Antetokounmpo: 1.60, Durant: 1.56, Davis: 1.41, Ibaka, 1.40, James: 1.33. Can you spot the player who doesn't fit in with that group? He's volatile, making him a tournament option only, but he's been thriving since picking up the starter's minutes at the center position for Toronto (he's forward eligible on most sites). Over his last five games, he's averaging a double-double with 19 points and 10.8 rebounds. He's averaging 28 minutes per game which, ideally, we'd like to see a little more but it's been enough most nights for him to reach value. He's averaging 1.40 fantasy points per minute and has forty fantasy points or more in three of his last five games. He's got a tough matchup tonight against Andre Drummond, but until his price catches up with his recent production, he's someone that needs to be on our radar. He's coming off a tough matchup against Anthony Davis and he still managed to go eight of 16 from the field with 14 rebounds. This game has a solid 223.5 and if Detroit can keep it competitive, there should be fantasy production for the taking.

T.J. Warren, PHX (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.4K, Yahoo: $24)

The Suns have shaken up their lineup and rotations a bit and Warren has been a clear beneficiary of his move. He's been part of the starting rotation for three games in a row now and scored 45, 42, and 35 fantasy points. He's playing ridiculous minutes, averaging 39.6 per game during that span and he's been part of the DraftKings perfect lineup two of those three games. Obviously his price is increasing as a result of this success but it's still not high enough when you factor in this production. The Spurs are not the same team defensively that they've been in the past. They rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to power forwards over their last five games. As long as the minutes are still there for Warren and he continues putting up double digit shot attempts every night, he should have no problem reaching salary expectations in this matchup.

Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (DK: $9.5, FD: $10.5, Yahoo: $44)

There are a lot of "if" situations here, so let's see what this looks like. With Butler out of the picture and both Teague and Wiggins questionable, we have to continue to consider Towns even at his elevated price. With all those guys off the floor, according to our usage matrix, Towns sees a massive 20.4% usage increase (albeit it's a small 27 minute sample size but you get the point). Even if Wiggins and Teague both play tonight, Towns still sees a 3% usage increase and an additional 12.9 fantasy points per game. Butler leaving is what really gives him that boost. If Covington and Saric play, that's when I start to consider pivoting elsewhere. I'm not expecting these guys to be available since they weren't able to participate at practice yesterday and it seems crazy to throw new players on the floor for a game when they've never actually played with their teammates, but I could be mistaken. If they play, I want to watch the game and see the rotations, usage, etc. If they miss, then Towns (and others from this team) are very interesting options tonight. Towns has had 67 and 59 fantasy points in the two games since Butler left. He's averaging 24 points and 13.2 rebounds per game over his last five. You think he was happy about the trade?

Hassan Whiteside, MIA (DK: $8.4K, FD: $9.2K, Yahoo: $35)

He's always a bit difficult to roster because his minutes can be so unpredictable, but generally speaking, I'm comfortable using him as long as the game is expected to be close and they are not playing on a back to back. Since both of those criteria are being met tonight, I think it's safe to pencil him in. Of course, it doesn't hurt that he's playing the Nets tonight and even better, the Nets might be without Jarrett Allen. Brooklyn ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to centers over their last five games. Whiteside is averaging 15.2 points and 14.6 rebounds per game with a comfortable 21.6% usage rate. He's picking up a ridiculous 1.61 fantasy points per minute over his last five games, including a monster 20/20 game against the Spurs a few nights ago where he went 10 of 18 from the field with 20 rebounds and he nearly picked up the triple-double with nine blocks. This resulted in 76 fantasy points. The ceiling on Whiteside is always incredible and given the matchup and the fact the Heat are not on a back to back, I'm feeling pretty good about his floor in this spot as well.

Jusuf Nurkic, POR (DK: $6.5K, FD: $8K, Yahoo: $23)

This is another game expected to be high scoring and competitive that we highlighted earlier in the article. It will be a pace up game for the Blazers with the Lakers on their home court and ranked third in pace of play this season. They are 26th in opponent points allowed per game, 23rd in opponent rebounds allowed per game, and 29th in opponent points allowed in the paint. Nurkic, on the other hand, is sixth in the league in offensive rebounds per game and the Blazers as a team are first in the league in total rebounds per game. Nurkic should dominate underneath tonight, both defensively and on the glass, while picking up some easy second chance buckets. The Lakers are 23rd in fantasy points allowed to centers over their last five games, including a game against Nurkic who put up 40 fantasy points in 31 minutes. In what should be a closely contested game, I like Nurkic to play at the higher end of his minutes range tonight, which makes him too cheap, especially on Draftkings.

Freeroll

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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