Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

Just a three game mini slate tonight so as we usually do on slates this small, we'll talk about each game at a high level and then go into a couple of options at each position. The most interesting game on this slate is the Warriors and Rockets where Houston is currently favored by 1.5. We know Curry is going to be out but that spread suggests someone else might miss also. On the Houston side, we have quite a few guys on the injury report so some value should be available from both of these teams. Outside of that, we have a potential blowout in Denver and then a game that I wouldn't really consider appealing if it were on a larger slate. Let's take a look.

Games to Target

Warriors @ Rockets (HOU -1, 220 O/U)

Is Golden State falling apart before our eyes? Unlikely, I’m sure they will figure it out and run away with the title this year but it’s still created some interesting storylines the past few days. The Vegas line is making me think Curry might not be the only one who misses this game tonight. Could Green get another night off or will Durant sit this time? There’s no other reason why the 6-7 Rockets would be favored by a point and a half here. Just Curry alone being out isn’t enough, so this will be worth monitoring. These are two teams that we thought could be competing for the West at some point this season but at the moment, they are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Golden State is second in points per game, 11th in pace of play, and 14th in defensive rating. Houston is 28th in points per game, 28th in pace of play, and 20th in defensive rating. Both teams rely heavily on three point shooting. The difference though is Golden State’s shots are falling, shooting 41.8% from beyond the arc (best in the league) while Houston’s shots are not falling, shooting 32.9% (25th). Until Houston figures things out more, I’m having a hard time investing much in them right now. The Warriors side of this game is appealing though, especially if the game is expected to stay close.

Hawks @ Nuggets (DEN -12, 222 O/U)

Love Denver here with the obvious caveat that a blowout situation is in play considering they are double-digit favorites. This will be a massive pace up game for them with the Nuggets playing at the 27th fastest pace and the Hawks playing at the fastest pace in the league. That’s an instant boost to the Denver players with the extra possessions they should see in this game. The Hawks defense is nothing to write home about either, ranking 23rd in total defensive rating. So, the Nuggets are going to get extra opportunities to put up fantasy points and be efficient while doing it against a soft defense? Sign me up. The Hawks are 28th in second chance points allowed and dead last in opponent points allowed off of turnovers. These will not do them any favors against the team that is ninth in total rebounding (6th in offensive rebounding) and sixth in steals, forcing 15.1 opponent turnovers per game. It’s hard to get very excited about anything on the Atlanta side against a Denver team that is sixth in defensive rating and fourth in opponent points allowed per game.

Spurs @ Clippers (LAC -5, 219.5 O/U)

The Spurs are slowly starting to regain their identity as a team that likes to slow things down and play good defense. They still aren’t anywhere near as scary as years past but they are now ranked 26th in pace of play and just outside the top 10 (11th) in defensive rating at 107.1 This can make them a bit difficult to target players against in DFS. On a larger slate, this might be a spot to avoid. But given we only have three games to work with, we are forced to look for edges anywhere we can find them. One thing standing out to me is San Antonio ranks 16th in opponent points allowed in the paint and 15th in rebounding. The Clippers rank fifth in points scored in the paint and seventh in rebounding. They should have an advantage near the rim on offense tonight. On the other side, the Clippers aren’t a great team to target either. They do play at a faster pace but they still rank 10th in defensive rating. Similar to the Spurs, however, they aren't great at defending near the paint either. They are 18th in opponent points allowed in the paint and 24th in second chance points allowed. Whichever team wins the battle down low likely has the advantage in this game.

Injury Report

Guards

Klay Thompson, GS (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.5K, Yahoo: $31)

He's just a beast without Curry on the floor. He took 31 shot attempts in their game against the Clippers. Granted, it was an overtime game and he played 45 minutes, but you get the point. He followed that up with 19 shot attempts in his last game against Atlanta and he played 38 minutes. He gets a 5.51% usage increase, the highest on the team, when Curry is off the floor. This results in an additional 11.96 fantasy points per game. He's proving the usage matrix to be accurate as he's had over forty fantasy points in both games that Curry has missed so far. All of this means that his current price still hasn't caught up to the expected production here with Curry out again tonight. The Rockets rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to the shooting guard position over their last five games and that includes two games against Bryn Forbes and Terrance Ferguson, neither of whom are big fantasy producers. The game environment, plus matchup, and additional usage all add up to Thompson being at the top of my short list for this slate.

Monte Morris, DEN (DK: $4.1K, FD: $5.2K, Yahoo: $10)

Morris has already been playing pretty solid minutes this season and he's shown a pretty high ceiling with one game over forty fantasy points. With a minutes floor of somewhere in the 20-25 range (he's actually averaging 25.4 minutes per game over their last five games) and the added potential of garbage time in an expected blowout, I'm really liking the value we could see here. As mentioned earlier, this is a very large pace differential for the Nuggets who are one of the slowest teams in the NBA and will be playing the fastest team in the NBA. Atlanta is also 23rd in defensive rating and 17th in fantasy points allowed to point guards over their last five games. Nothing about Morris's stats scream "play me," as he's averaging 11 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. What does stand out is he contributes in a number of categories and that has led to him averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute (0.94). If he can stay in that range and pick up near 30 minutes tonight in garbage time, he would be a steal at this price tag tonight (especially on DraftKings).

Forwards

Kevin Durant, GS (DK: $11.1K, FD: $11.8K, Yahoo: $54)

Something is not right about this game. The Warriors, who average the second most points per game in the league, have an implied total tonight of 109.3. That's 11.4 points below their season average but they are playing a Houston team that ranks 20th in total defense. The Rockets are still a respectable seventh in opponent points allowed per game but an implied total for the Warriors that is this low implies something else here. I'm saying all this because it's possible that Durant misses tonight for rest purposes. This is pure speculation on my part. I haven't seen anything indicating this but I'm just really finding this Vegas information strange. If it's true, then obviously a ton of value would open up on the Golden State side. If he plays, you have to like him here with the 4.81% usage increase and additional 8.41 fantasy points per game he sees with Curry off the floor. In the three games Curry has missed, he has 58, 71 (overtime) and 45 fantasy points. I'm throwing the last one out as it was the second night of a back to back after an overtime game and those almost always hurt fantasy production. This isn't exactly analysis but he'll also be playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after the incident with Draymond in the locker room after their last game. A little "Angry Durant" could spell big things for us in DFS tonight.

P.J. Tucker, HOU (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.8K, Yahoo: $12)

One of the remaining duo of SF/PF for Houston is going to have a good game tonight. We have Carmelo Anthony out of the picture for now. Gerald Green and Gary Clark are both looking unlikely to play due to injury. That leaves us with Tucker or Ennis as the remaining options. If we take all these players off the floor it doesn't make a huge difference for either one. Tucker sees a 1.17% usage increase but actually loses 0.91 fantasy points per game. Ennis sees a 0.85% usage increase and gains 3.79 fantasy points per game. Those numbers are so small that I wouldn't put any weight on them at all. Neither player has a high usage rate or a strong fantasy point per minute ratio. It's all about the minutes here and their low price tags in the game with a high total that's expected to stay close. This is where I'm leaning toward Tucker. He's averaging an incredibly high 37 minutes per game over his last five games including 40 minutes or more in his last two. Ennis, meanwhile, is averaging 25.2 minutes per game and has only passed 30 minutes once during that span. It won't be pretty, but Tucker only needs about 20 fantasy points to meet salary expectations, which he has done in four of his last five games. As long as he continues to play heavy minutes he's someone we can look at as a salary saver, especially on a three game slate.

Centers

LaMarcus Aldridge, SA (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.4K, Yahoo: $33)

I don't love the idea of playing Aldridge on the second night of a back to back but he did play less than 30 minutes last night in a blowout loss, so the situation isn't too bad. He also may get passed over by the field when they see he only put up 20 fantasy points last night, which is appealing on a three game slate. We know he is capable of a very high ceiling. I'm not interested in Jokic with the very real possibility of a blowout, you could make an argument for Capela but his history against Golden State is a bit scary. I mentioned earlier in the article that the Clippers don't defend well near the paint. They are 18th in opponent points allowed in the paint and 24th in second chance points allowed this season. They also ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to centers over their last five games. Aldridge will have a bit of a challenge rebounding but I like his potential for scoring here and the Spurs should pick up a few extra possessions in a pace-up spot.

Miles Plumlee, ATL (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.7K, Yahoo: $10)

There are a couple of reasons to like Plumlee here. First, there's a good chance for garbage time with the Hawks being 12 point underdogs. Second, he might not even need garbage time to play tonight as both Dwayne Dedmon and Alex Len are on the injury report. If both of them miss, Plumlee will soak up a majority of the minutes at center and then the Hawks will likely play some small ball lineups whenever he needs a breather. It's hard to get a true read on him since he doesn't play very often and we clearly don't have many stats to go off of. What is encouraging though is in the limited time he has played, he's averaging over a fantasy point per minute. Even 15 minutes tonight, at a fantasy point per minute, would allow him to reach near value at his price tag. If both Len and Dedmon miss, there's a pretty good chance Plumlee plays 20 minutes or more, which would give him a good shot at exceeding value tonight. This situation will definitely be something to watch as Plumlee could be the key to fitting in Durant and Harden together.

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