Hello LineStar friends. Your regularly scheduled writer, Greg “The Gregulator” Landry is out this week so the team has turned to their Nathan Peterman to get the newsletter out over the Thanksgiving holiday. My name is Carl Taylor, I wrote the daily newsletters for the beginning part of the MLB season while the NBA playoffs were overlapping and will aim to help us all make some extra stuffing this upcoming week. You can follow me on twitter @dailydogsports although most of my content on there is just DM's to Emily Ratajkowski. Anyway, on to our first look at the NBA docket for Monday November 19th, which is coincidentally “have a bad day, day” . We'll try not to observe that particular holiday.

There's some damage to be done tonight with 9 games to choose from on the NBA schedule. Memphis and San Antonio are playing in back-to-back situations while Detroit (-10.5) and Philadelphia (-12) are the biggest favorites of the night. Some lines that seem a bit off include Charlotte giving just +2.5 at home to the Celtics and the Pacers being +1.5 home 'dogs to Utah, so we'll watch those games. The Grizzlies are also favored in their back-to-back contest (MEM -3.5) vs. a Dallas team that is horrible on the road this season (1-6) but is also riding a 4-game win streak. Let's get a bit more specific and take a look at these games with a more DFS perspective...after all, that's why we're here. 

Games to Keep an Eye On

Cleveland @ Detroit (DET -10.5, O/U 211.5)

I know thanksgiving is this week but this game is more like a Halloween matchup because it's downright scary. If you're looking for contrarian plays tonight, the Cavs might actually be worth a look. Yes they are 0-7 on the road and already have Zion Williamson's locker reserved but Detroit is coming off a very emotional 106-104 win over the Raptors on Saturday. You may remember that Pistons coach, Dwayne Casey, was unceremoniously dumped by those Raptors in the offseason...the reigning NBA coach of the year Dwayne Casey. The Cavs have also held 3 of their last 4 opponents to under 100 points, so don't be tempted to automatically load up on Pistons players in this game.

Phoenix @ Philadelphia (PHI -12, O/U 224)

This game definitely has blowout potential, as Phoenix is 27th in defensive efficiency up against the new look 76ers with more offensive potential after the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. The Philadelphia offense has improved in points scored in every game since acquiring Butler, scoring 106, 113, and 122 (OT) which is a sign of being more comfortable with the all-star in the lineup. The Suns have given up 110+ points in 4 of the last 5. Not only can anybody in the Sixers line-up light it up tonight – perhaps everybody can.

Boston @ Charlotte (BOS -2.5, O/U 218)

The Celtics are getting hammered early by the betting public with roughly 75% thinking this line is way too low. The spread has only moved ½ a point however and experienced gamblers know what that means. Yes, Boston is tops in the NBA in defensive rating (101.3) but Charlotte is sneaky good on the offensive side of the ball (111.3 rating is 7th in the league). The Celtics have allowed 115+ in three of their last six games and tonight's total of 218 is the 2nd highest in a Boston game this season. That means there could be some serious points scored tonight. The big question is if those points are indeed going to come from Charlotte, and there's a good chance that answer is 'yes' as the Hornets have dropped 113+ in 5 of their last 6.

Dallas @ Memphis (MEM -3.5, O/U 204)

Oddsmakers aren't expecting a lot of points in this contest (204) but why no love for Dallas on the spread side of things? The Mavs have put together a four game win streak including taking down Golden State 112-109 on Saturday night. Obviously, there's the possibility of a letdown after that game but it seems absurd that Dallas would be almost 4 point 'dogs vs. a Memphis team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Griz are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency but you have to throw that out the window after a 100-87 win in Minnesota yesterday afternoon and the subsequent travel back home. Memphis is last in possessions per game (99.7) and Dallas, despite their record, is 11th in defensive efficiency. If you're a bettor and not just a DFS player, the Mavs are veeeeery appealing tonight. 

Guards

De'Aaron Fox (DK: $6,100 FD:$7,800 Y!: $29)

There's incredible value on De'Aaron Fox in DraftKings and FanDuel, as he's ranked out of the top 15 in G for tonight's docket. There's going to be some points scored when Sacramento hosts OKC, as the Kings are 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Thunder are 10th. Fox had a triple-double to start November and has gone over 19+ points in 6 of 8 games this month. OKC has been tough vs. PG this season (26.9 FPPG and 4.6 FG/Game) but Fox could offset any lower scoring numbers with a higher assist output. The Thunder give up 6.2 AST/G to PG's and the Kings have a top assist combo in Fox and Willie Cauley-Stein.

Luka Doncic (DK: $6,600 FD: $7,800 Y! $29)

The ownership for Luka Doncic is going to be low tonight because he's up against a good Memphis defense – but that's a good thing. As mentioned, the Grizzlies are on night two of a back-to-back and Doncic is on a tear with three games of 22+ points in his last five. Dallas has the top defensive efficiency in the league over their last four games and have held four of their last six opponents to below 100 points. That definitely means more offensive opportunities for Big D tonight – especially against a tired Grizzlies team. And who better than Doncic to take advantage of those increased possessions?

Collin Sexton (DK: $5,100 FD: $6,000 Y! $14)

Collin Sexton has crazy value tonight, which will leave you a lot of money for a premier big man like Anthony Davis or Joel Embiid. The best thing is that Sexton is not just a value, but also has a great chance to produce solid numbers, which is the name of the game in DFS. I may have been drinking early this Monday morning but I like Cleveland to put up a fight tonight, mostly due to the letdown factor that Detroit is going to be going through after their last second win over Toronto on Saturday. Sexton has also gone for 15+ points in each of the four games that George Hill has been out of the Cleveland lineup, including dropping 24 last game vs. Washington. Sexton had 14 points and 5 assists in 25 minutes on October 25th vs. Detroit – how much better can those numbers be with about 10 more minutes of playing time? 

Forwards

TJ Warren (DK: $6,400 FD: $7,000 Y! $30)

If Philadelphia does indeed get a big lead on Phoenix tonight as expected, it means the NBA's version of the prevent defense could come into play. The best bet for volume garbage points tonight for the Suns is TJ Warren. Truth is, he could have a big game regardless of what the scoreboard says. Warren has gone for 20+ in each of five games since being declared healthy from back issues, including three games of 25 or more points. The DeAndre Ayton / Joel Embiid battle on the blocks should open things up on the other side for Warren. The Sixers are 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but they do struggle against opposing PF's. Philly is allowing 31.1 FPPG to PF including 7.4 REB/G.

Paul George (DK: $10,500 FD: $10,000 Y! $48)

George is obviously going to cost you tonight but he's about as close to a sure thing as we have on the schedule. The Thunder are -3 road favorites at Sacramento tonight in a matchup of two teams averaging a boatload of possessions per game. George is the unquestionable go-to guy for OKC with Russell Westbrook still on the shelf and he's coming off his third straight game of 32+ points. George's rebounding numbers (8.67) are also impressive over that span. The Kings struggle vs. wings too, allowing 26.5 ppg and 9.4 rpg on nearly 50% shooting.

Harrison Barnes (DK: $5,500 FD: $6,300 Y! $21)

OK, I think at this point the Dallas Mavericks might be starting to put together the paperwork for a restraining order against me but I love this team tonight. That includes Harrison Barnes in the F spot. His 11.78% projected ownership is higher than I expected considering Memphis is allowing only 23.5 FPPG to PF starters, where Barnes is expected to be at tonight. That includes a so-so 5.6 REB/G and a very poor 3.7 FG/G. Barnes averaged 23 ppg and 8.67 rpg in his last three games against the Grizzlies in 2017, so there are some matchup advantages there. Barnes also has two 23 point games in his last three, so he's finding a groove within this Dallas offense lately.

Centers

Obviously if you've got the budget, it's a no-brainer to go with Joel Embiid and/or Anthony Davis tonight, as those two big men have the potential to dominate on every single night. Here are a couple more under-the-radar plays however:

Alex Len (DK: $4,200 FD: $4,200 Y!: 10)

Alex Len is available in the $5 movie bin at Wal-Mart tonight but you just might discover a cult classic for the value. Len has just 11 total points in his last two games but did average 15.5 points and 9 boards in the two games prior. The name of the game in taking Atlanta's Len tonight is 'potential' as the Hawks take on the Clippers. LAC allows 27.3 ppg to opposing C on 55.9% shooting. That also includes 9.6 REB/Game which in total is good for 44.2 FPPG. The Clippers are playing in the middle of a three road games in four night stretch and if Trae Young can feed him, Len should be able to eat tonight.

DeAndre Jordan (DK: $6,400 FD: $7,200 Y!: $26)

Yes that is another Dallas player and no, I'm not Mark Cuban's son. The truth is there's great value and low ownership tonight on DJ. First off, Mark Gasol played 36 minutes yesterday and will be fatigued in tonight's battle down low. Even with a healthy lineup however, the Grizzlies allow 10 REB/G to opponent C starters. DeAndre Jordan has tallied double digit rebounds in all but one game this season but his scoring is a concern with a high point total of 13 so far in November. If Memphis is indeed tired from their B2B, expect Dallas to hammer it inside and wear them down early...and often, which highly benefits the Mavs big man.

Tristan Thompson (DK: $5,500 FD: $ 6,500 Y! $20)

Selecting Thompson proves that even though Cleveland has been horrible this year, they still have a lot of value in terms of DFS. Thompson has a 6.56% projected ownership tonight, which seems high considering he's up against the Detroit front line of Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. Thompson is going to be a contrarian play in that regard considering Detroit only allows 7.7 REB/G to opposing C and 30 FPPG total. Cleveland has had four full nights off however, and Thompson's output jumps 42% when he's well rested. He's also played well lately, including an 11 point and 21 rebound performance on November 13th vs. Charlotte. That was preceded by a season high 22 point (including 12 rebounds) game vs. the Bulls, so maybe Thompson is finding his way within this offense.

That's tonight's outlook for the November 19th NBA slate. We went very Dallas – centric this evening but when your loaded game hits as planned, that's how you can find some real success in DFS. Plus...if that fails miserably, we can always dig deep into tomorrow's narrow 4-game docket. Enjoy the games everybody!

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