Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Daily Dribble! We have eight games on tap for tonight's slate and already a bunch of news to talk about. James Harden is listed as a game time decision but is not expected to play tonight. He's currently targeting tomorrow to return. Donovan Mitchell has already been ruled out for Utah, which makes that game a little more interesting in terms of staying competitive. Dwight Howard will make his debut for Washington tonight. It will be a boost to a thin front court for the Wizards but his minutes should be limited tonight so I wouldn't jump on board quite yet. Devin Booker is a game time decision, which will have a big impact. If he plays, that game becomes more interesting being played in Phoenix. If he misses, we can look at some value on the Suns but I would fear a possible blowout. The Vegas line movement should be an indication for us here.

Games to Target

Two games are missing Vegas information at the moment. We already know Donovan Mitchell has been ruled out although Vegas may be waiting for a more official confirmation. If Devin Booker doesn't play for the Suns, their game against Toronto could be a blowout risk. We'll take a wait and see approach for now. In the meantime, there are a couple other games that have my attention:

Thunder @ Wizards (WAS-3, 230.5)

I know the Wizards are at home but I'm still a bit surprised to see them as three point favorites with how poorly they've been playing and how talented the Thunder are. It wouldn't shock me to see the line move toward the Thunder as the day goes along. Either way, this game should be competitive and have a lot to offer from a DFS perspective. Both of these teams are middle of the league in scoring, though OKC is under performing at this stage and should start to increase their points per game average. These teams are both fast, with the Thunder ranked fifth with 106.1 possessions per game and the Wizards ranked seventh with 105.7. The Wizards are really struggling defensively, allowing the most opponent points per game and ranked 26th in total defensive efficiency. Both sides have appeal but there are multiple members of OKC that I'm looking at.

Timberwolves @ Warriors (GS -11, 239.5 O/U)

We are banking on Minnesota keeping this game competitive, which is always a risk when a team plays the Warriors, especially when the game is in Oakland. Jimmy Butler has denied that he is holding out from the team and is expected to play, which helps Minnesota's outlook. I'll be keeping a really close eye on line movement throughout the day. The potential here is undeniable just judging by the massive 239.5 total alone. The Warriors are first in points per game with 125 and the Timberwolves are eighth with 116 per game. Both teams are fast, as Golden State is 10th in pace of play and Minnesota is 11th. Neither team is overly intimidating on defense either. Golden State is good, ranked 13th in total defense, but they are giving up the 15th most opponent points. Minnesota is a wreck on defense, ranking 27th and allowing the 27th most opponent points per game. If, and I stress if, Minnesota can hang in this game, it should be very high scoring with a lot of fantasy production.

Injury Report

Guards

Stephen Curry, GS (DK: $10.3, FD: $10.7, Yahoo: $46)

The only thing holding me back here is the possibility of a blowout, which would limit his ceiling. But even then, for the Warriors to be in that situation, you have to think it's because Curry has already had a big night. Golden State is projected to score right around their season average in points, which happen to be first in the league at 125 per game. The projected pace here is neutral, with the Warriors tenth and the Wolves 11th, so Golden State should maintain its number of possessions and opportunities for fantasy production. Minnesota is terrible defensively, ranking 27th in overall efficiency with a 114.2 rating. They are also allowing opponents to take 33.1 three point attempts per game, which is seventh most, and hit 37.4% from beyond the arc (22nd). Obviously, that sets up well for Curry who takes the most three point shots in the league at 11.6 per game and is shooting 52.9% from that range. Don't be fooled by Minnesota allowing so few fantasy points to point guards this season, as four of the last five players they've faced at the position have failed to top 30 minutes. Curry is averaging 34 minutes per game and 1.46 fantasy points per minute. He's one of the top projected players on this slate.

Tim Hardaway Jr., NYK (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.6K, Yahoo: $26)

Hardaway's usage rate is through the roof at 29.9% on a team that doesn't have much in terms of playmakers. His matchup tonight is outstanding against a Dallas defense that funnels shots to the outside. With DeAndre Jordan owning the rim (Dallas is allowing the third fewest opponent points in the paint) teams are forced to take more shots from the perimeter. The Mavericks, despite being so strong at protecting down low, still rank 22nd in total defense and are allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 47.9% from three point range. Obviously, that number isn't sustainable, but we still get the point that Dallas is best attacked on the outside. Hardaway is seventh in the NBA in shot attempts per game with 20 and fifth in the league in three point shot attempts with 9.1 per game. It's true, he isn't overly efficient with those attempts but because he takes so many it still leads to plenty of fantasy production. With this being a pace up spot for the Knicks, it should lead to a few extra possessions and likely a few extra shot attempts for Hardaway. Coming off two straight games of over 40 fantasy points, I like him to get there again tonight.

Dante Exum, UTA (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.8K, Yahoo: $10)

It's not completely clear who is going to be pushed into the starting lineup tonight between Exum and O'Neale in place of the injured Mitchell. Either way, both players should see an uptick in minutes. I'm actually hoping that O'Neale gets the start and Exum continues to play with the second unit but with the increased playing time. He has a solid 23.7% usage rate this season and put up 26 fantasy points in 25 minutes in their last game. With Mitchell off the floor, according to the usage matrix, Exum sees a 3.9% bump which would put him at 27.6% usage for basically minimum salary on all sites. The matchup itself isn't great, as Memphis is allowing the second fewest opponent points per game, plays at the second slowest pace, and is ranked third in total defense. But with the additional usage and a shot at 30 minutes tonight, Exum's value far outweighs the risk of a poor matchup. He'll be popular but it's likely going to be a situation where you need to take the free square and move on.

Forwards

Kevin Durant, GS (DK: $9.9K, FD: $10.7K, Yahoo: $49)

As with Curry, the blowout factor applies here. I am not someone who typically fades a player based on only the possibility of a blowout, as they are hard to predict. Also, in these cases, it's safer to have interest in the team that's expected to crush, as this generally means the players had a solid performance to begin with. The floor is still strong even if they wind up sitting out most of the fourth quarter. It's the ceiling that is limited. Durant was outstanding against Minnesota in two games played last season with 73 and 69 fantasy points. It's worth noting that Jimmy Butler did not play in either of those games and he's going to be the player to guard Durant tonight (assuming he plays). Even with Butler on the court, however, other top tier small forwards have had success this season already, including Kawhi Leonard who put up 52 fantasy points and LeBron James who put up 62 fantasy points. Durant has an elite 27.8% usage rate on the team projected to score the most points tonight in a game that should be up tempo. He's top ten in the NBA in minutes per game (35.3) and points per game (27.8). He's viable in both cash and tournaments tonight but keep an eye on any line movement.

Pascal Siakam, TOR (DK: $4.8K, FD: $5.7K, Yahoo: $16)

Is Pascal Siakam the hottest player in the NBA right now? No, he's not. But still, he's been lights out recently. He's averaging 26 minutes per game and 1.03 fantasy points per minute which is equaling 26.7 fantasy points per game. Those numbers don't really stand out but it's his recent trend that's exciting. He had a monster 44 fantasy point performance against the Bucks, including 10 of 16 from the field with eight rebounds, four steals, and two assists. This appeared to be mainly due to Kawhi Leonard missing that game. Then he followed it up with a 43 fantasy point performance going 6 of 8 from the field with 15 rebounds even when Kawhi returned. He played 33 minutes in each of those games, despite both being blowouts (one win and one loss). If he's going to continue to get over 30 minutes per game at this price, it's almost impossible not to have interest. Today, he has an ideal matchup against the Suns, who struggle in so many areas. They average just 41 rebounds per game which is 28th in the league, they are 28th in defensive efficiency, and 29th in opponent points allowed in the paint with a whopping 58.6 per game. This screams double-double opportunity for Siakam with the clear rebounding advantage and soft matchup near the rim.

Jerami Grant, OKC (DK: $4K, FD: $4.9K, Yahoo: $19)

It feels like a "stars and scrubs" kind of day for roster construction with some of the value available on Utah and potentially from Phoenix depending on the Booker news. This is another punt option to consider. The minutes have been a bit unpredictable but he's never played less than 25 and he's played as many as 37 since the start of the season. Even if we consider 25 minutes as the floor, that's still more than enough time to pay off such a cheap price tag here. The matchup is ideal on many levels. Oklahoma City is projected to score above their season average and it's going to be an up tempo game that should lead to extra possessions. The Thunder have a huge rebounding advantage, ranking eighth in the league compared to the Wizards who rank 27th. Washington is dead last in opponent rebounds per game allowed with 53.3. Grant's rebounding numbers don't jump off the page but he's been steady with 5.3 per game and a likely chance at a few extra today. The Wizards are 19th in opponent points allowed in the paint, allowing 50.3 per game. They are also 28th in second chance points allowed with 18.1 per game. A double-double here is probably a stretch, but with some extra opportunities for rebounds and easy buckets underneath, I think he has a chance to flirt with it. Anything close would be more than enough to exceed salary expectations. If this game stays competitive, he could also end up on the higher end of his minutes range. He's a sneaky option tonight.

Centers

Rudy Gobert, UTA (DK: $8.2K, FD: $10.1K, Yahoo: $32)

The salary on FanDuel is a little tough to swallow but but he's still priced reasonably on DraftKings and Yahoo. He's coming off three straight monster games all over 50 fantasy points including 14, 16, and 13 rebounds. This game looks like it could be his best yet as he already had some clear advantages based on the matchup and now he'll see nearly a 5% usage increase (4.91%) without Mitchell on the floor tonight. What stood out to me immediately here is the Grizzlies are dead last in the league in rebounding with just 39.7 per game. Even better is they are dead last in offensive rebounds with only 7.2 per game. Gobert, who is sixth in the league in total rebounds, averaging 13.4 per game and sixth in the league in offensive rebounds averaging 3.7 per game, should be cleaning the glass all night long. With opportunities on the offensive boards, he should be able to pick up some extra points and without Mitchell on the floor, he'll be leaned on heavier than usual for scoring. My bold call of the night is a 20/20 game for Gobert. I'll be locking him in where I can.

DeAndre Jordan, DAL (DK: $8.3K, FD: $8.6K, Yahoo: $30)

The overall outlook here for Dallas isn't great. They are comfortable six point favorites but it's a low total. The Knicks are only allowing the tenth most opponent points per game and they are 23rd in pace of play, which makes this a pace down spot for the Mavericks. However, Jordan's individual matchup looks very promising. New York is currently only allowing the sixth most fantasy points to centers but this is heavily skewed due to a small sample size and poor performances from Damian Jones (15 fantasy points in 15 minutes) and Miles Turner, who is basically the most inefficient player in the league. A deeper dive into the numbers shows a lot for us to like about Jordan in this matchup. The Knicks are 24th in the league in rebounding while Jordan is third with 14.9 rebounds per game. New York is 18th in the league in opponent points allowed in the paint and the Mavericks, thanks in large part to Jordan, are ranked 11th in points scored in the paint, with 50 per game. Assuming Kanter gets the start (not sure if he will), he ranked 50th out of 56 centers last season in DRPM with a -0.12. Only seven centers had a negative DRPM rating last season and Kanter was one of them. I'm not quite as high on Jordan as I am on Gobert but I do think this is a great spot for a signature double-double with upside for more.

Jarrett Allen, BKN (DK: $5.1K, FD: $6.5K, Yahoo: $18)

IF (and I'm stressing "if" because I don't see myself doing this) I was going to punt at center tonight, this is where I would end up. A matchup with Clint Capela isn't ideal, as he was tenth in the NBA last season with a DRPM of 2.88. But despite that, the Rockets are still getting dominated down low this season. Allen's minutes are all over the place, ranging from 20 all the way up to 34. This game is expected to stay close, with a spread of only three points, which should allow Allen to end up on the higher end of his range. This is the least expensive he's been all season on DraftKings which lowers the risk slightly. He's a volatile player with a floor of about ten fantasy points and a ceiling somewhere in the forties. For that reason, I can't recommend him as anything more than a GPP option. With all that said, what's standing out to me here is how much the Rockets' defense forces the ball inside. Houston has outstanding perimeter defense and allows the least opponent three point attempts in the league at 25.7 per game. They are also allowing the 12th lowest opponent three point shooting percentage at 34.4%. But they are dead last in opponent points allowed in the paint with an incredible 59.3 per game. They are also 25th in total rebounding with just 42 per game. This will give a boost to Allen in both the scoring and rebounding department tonight. He's currently averaging 11.1 points per game and 7.4 rebounds per game. I think he gets into double-double territory tonight, which would be a nice return, particularly on DraftKings at his current salary.

Freeroll

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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