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- Top NBA Plays 11/20 | 4 Games to Dissect for this Tuesday Slate
Top NBA Plays 11/20 | 4 Games to Dissect for this Tuesday Slate
Today's LineStar Daily Dribble is a tribute to former NBA star Baby Jordan Harold “Miner” because we've got to do some real digging with just 4 games on the schedule. I'm Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) again filling in for the regular curator, Greg Landry. He's not entirely on his vacation, questioning my picks saying, “what have you done?” (probably) just yet, so let's try to build some momentum as we head towards Fat Thursday.
It's not really that appealing of a slate this evening but there's always DFS value even if Cleveland was playing Cleveland's backups. Gamblers are really loving Toronto tonight (75%) even though they are giving +7 points at Orlando. We saw how important home court was last night as Charlotte beat Boston as +3.5 home dogs and the Pacers beat the Jazz in Indiana by 27 even though the line was Utah -4. The Clippers are in a back-to-back situation but oddsmakers are calling that game a toss-up at the downtrodden Wizards. The Heat and Nets meet up in a game you should shield the women and children from and my upset special of the night is the Knicks +8 at home against Portland. The TrailBlazers are playing their 4th straight road game and are looking ahead to visits at Milwaukee tomorrow and at Golden State on Friday. As the Mavs proved yesterday, my upset specials are sometimes a bit undercooked.
Let's take a look at the DFS angles for tonight's slate:
Guards
If last night was the night for big men with Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid in action, then Tuesday night is probably going to be more guard-centric. The three highest priced players on DK tonight are guards and backcourt players fill 6 of the top 10 priciest spots:
Damian Lillard (DK: $9,700 FD: $9,600 Y! $41)
There's also good value in teammate CJ McCollum but tonight, under the lights of Madison Square Garden, feels like a big output for Damian Lillard. The Blazers are in the middle of a long road trip but so far, Lillard has a 31 point night and a 40 point night over that span. Lillard is providing all-around value during this stretch too, as he has posted 6+ rebounds and 5+ assists over this 3-game stretch. The Knicks are also 3rd worst in the league in defensive efficiency. New York actually does defend the PG well (26.6 FPPG /4.8 AST /4.4 FG) but Lillard is good enough to transcend those numbers.
Tim Hardaway Jr (DK: $7,200 FD: $8,000 Y! $29)
Sticking with the same game from the Mecca of Basketball, if the Knicks are indeed going to pull off the upset tonight, it will likely be due to a big game from Tim Hardaway. Portland has allowed 110+ points in 7 of the last 9 games and should be a bit fatigued on defense this evening after playing their 4th road game in 6 days. Hardaway has posted back-to-back 30+ point games and has gone for 27+ in 4 of his last 6. The Trailblazers allow nearly 30 FPPG to SG which also includes 4 AST / game.
Patrick Beverley (DK: $4,600 FD: $4,800 Y! $13)
The Clippers are on the second leg of their back-to-back when they face Washington on Tuesday night but 65% of the public bettors still like LA in this game. The value play at guard in this contest is LA's Patrick Beverley. This game has the highest O/U of the night at 230.5 and Beverley should be one of the freshest Clippers players after logging just 19 minutes in last night's win over Atlanta. The reason Beverley is a play this evening is because the Wizards are giving up 34.9 FPPG to PG starters which includes 6.2 AST/G. With trade rumors surrounding both John Wall and Bradley Beal the Washington backcourt could be a bit more distracted / vulnerable on Tuesday night.
Forwards
Kawhi Leonard is the costliest F on the slate tonight and he should be fresh after being given the night off vs. Chicago Saturday. Leonard is a solid play but let's find some value in some other players as well:
Aaron Gordon (DK: $6,900 FD: $7,900 Y! $32)
The Orlando Magic have won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 and I like them with the points vs. Toronto. The Magic are fresh, having been at home for three straight games, and their offense is clicking with back-to-back 130+ games. If that high scoring trend is going to continue tonight, and it should with an O/U of 221, then Aaron Gordon is more likely than not going to have a big evening. Gordon dropped 31 in 29 minutes last time out vs. the Knicks and has a favorable matchup vs. the Raptors who allow 28.7 FPPG to PF's.
Kelly Oubre, Jr. (DK: $ 4,600 FD: $ 5,000 Y! 16)
Kelly Oubre is a contrarian play with value and potential. First off, Oubre isn't even a starter, and second of all, the Clippers are very good vs. SG/SF reserves, allowing just 2.4 FG/G. Oubre has seen his usage increase lately however and he's logged 27+ minutes in back-to-back games scoring 18 and 19 points respectively. If Oubre can get 30+ minutes this evening, he should be able to have a productive night vs. an LAC team playing on consecutive nights. Oubre actually logged the 2nd most minutes on Washington behind John Wall last game, so the usage should be there.
Tobias Harris (DK: $7,600 FD: $8,200 Y! $16)
If you're going to spend big on a F, instead of Kawhi Leonard, it might be Tobias Harris that is more of a sure thing. We'll get to the scoring in a minute but Harris should have big rebounding numbers tonight regardless of the fact that the Clippers are playing their second game in as many nights. Washington is 27th in the league in total rebounds per game and Harris has snagged at least 8 boards in 7 straight games. Throw in the fact that the LA forward has 27 and 24 points in consecutive games and you see why Harris is so costly tonight. The only thing that's worrisome is his usage (33+ minutes in 7 consecutive contests) which isn't ideal coming into a B2B situation but Harris is worth the risk.
Centers
For such a small slate, there's actually some decent C options for tonight's NBA DFS. That doesn't mean these players aren't risk/reward as the Center position often is however...
Hassan Whiteside (DK: $8,000 FD: $8,600 Y! $36)
I thought there'd be better value and slightly less ownership on Hassan Whiteside tonight considering he's coming off a 6 point, 7 rebound, 26 minute night vs. the Lakers. I was sorely mistaken, as the big man's ownership is over 32%. That doesn't mean he still isn't worth rostering however, as he posted double-doubles in the six games prior. That stretch also includes two 20-rebound nights and a 29 point outburst two weeks ago vs. San Antonio. Plus, Brooklyn is giving up nearly 40 FPPG to opposing C which includes 12.2 REB/G. Whiteside is better at home and Brooklyn's slower pace definitely favors the Miami center.
Enes Kanter (DK: $6,300 FD: $6,500 Y! $24)
Enes Kanter saw some great usage last game with 37 minutes and he responded with a 21 point , 19 rebound night. The Knicks have had a night off to recuperate and are back home tonight vs. Portland, which should mean another heavy dose of EK. Kanter has three 15+ rebound nights in his last 5 games and the Trailblazers are surrendering over 6 REB/G to opposing backup C, let alone starters. Kanter has a tough matchup vs. Jusuf Nurkic but all that has done is drop the Knicks C to under 10% ownership, which is good for us.
Montrezl Harrell (DK: $6,600 FD: $7,500 Y! $25)
Harrell was going to be a solid play at C tonight regardless, but that only improves with the news that Washington's Dwight Howard will likely miss Tuesday's game with a buttocks issue (we've all been there). Harrell has the ability to slide from either PF to C, which means he can take advantage of the matchups vs. either Markieff Morris or a duo of reserves that includes Jason Smith or Thomas Bryant. Harrell has logged 27+ minutes in 5 straight games and is coming off a 25 point, 11 rebound performance last night vs. Atlanta. The Clippers are riding a 5-game win streak and go back home for two nights off after the game vs. Washington, so there's no reason to think they don't go 'all in' for tonight's win.
We're milking the nectarine with just 4 games on tonight's docket but the DFS gods are going to reward our patience today with a 13-game docket for Blackout Wednesday. Cheers to building our bankrolls tonight to get ready for that massive extravaganza tomorrow!
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