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- Top NBA Plays 11/27 | An Ideal 5-Game Tuesday Slate
Top NBA Plays 11/27 | An Ideal 5-Game Tuesday Slate
Not sure if he had the chicken or the fish, but regular contributor Greg Landry has experienced some flight issues so this is Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) holding down the fort once again. I think we can have some major NBA DFS success on this 5-game docket for Tuesday night. The shorter 5-game schedule can, in a weird way, actually lend itself to more DFS profitability as the amount of variables in a roster are limited. November 27th is also the National Day of Giving as well as Jaleel “Steve Urkel” White's birthday. My goal is to give out some winners and not have to say, “did I do that?” so let's get to it:
Games That Stand Out at First Glance
As expected, the Indiana Pacers did indeed upset a fatigued and battered Utah Jazz team (121-88) as +4.5 road underdogs. Indiana will be a hot play tonight as they are just -2.5 favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back at the Phoenix Suns.
The game of the night sees the Toronto Raptors putting their league best 17-4 record on the line as -4.5 favorites at the Memphis Grizzlies. The Raptors are also riding a 5 game win streak but the Grizzlies are a very solid 7-2 at home this season.
Lebron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will likely also see their fair share of betting action tonight as they are +4 underdogs at the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets are highly underrated however, sitting at third place in the Western Conference and coming into Tuesday's contest on the heels of a 3-game winning streak.
Guards
Reggie Jackson (DK: $5,400 FD: $5,800 Y! $19)
The Detroit Pistons are in a good spot as -7 point favorites vs. the Knicks tonight. The Pistons front court of Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond could have a big night but why can't Reggie Jackson and the backcourt produce as well? New York is 24th in the NBA in FG% as well as 23rd in the league in 3-point shooting against (36.1). Jackson scores 29.9 FPPG in up-pace games and has highly correlated assist options in his big men on the block. The Pistons PG has tallied 19+ and 6+ assists in B2B games while his minutes have stayed up at 31+ in each contest.
Jamal Murray (DK: $6,900 FD: $7,300 Y! $23)
There's a lot of gambling action on the Lakers at Denver tonight, which means the Nuggets have a very good chance of winning and covering the -4 spread. If that's how it goes down, expect another big night from Jamal Murray who is coming off a 22 point, 8AST, 8REB night last time out vs. OKC. The Nuggets have had 2 nights off before tonight's game and Denver has a positive pace differential vs. Los Angeles. Murray can feed Nikola Jokic down low who should have a big night vs. the Lakers front line. The Denver PG has 14+ points in 11 of 13 games in November and has 5+ assists in 8 of those contests. Murray also has six 5+ rebound games this month, so he can score fantasy points a multitude of ways.
Josh Richardson (DK: $7,400 FD: $7,900 Y! $29)
Miami's Josh Richardson is in line for a very big evening as the Heat are 7 point favorites at the Hawks today. The two teams met up on November 3rd when Richardson went for 32 points and 3 assists which was good for 44.12 fantasy points. Atlanta gives up 32.8 FPPG to SG starters which includes 6.6 FG and 3.8 AST/game. Richardson has scored 15+ in 9 straight games and also has either a 5+ rebound or 5+ assist game (or both) in 6 of those contests.
Forwards
Tim Hardaway, Jr. (DK: $6,500 FD: $7,000 Y!: $28)
Tim Hardaway has become a staple in these daily projections but you just can't deny his production lately. The Knicks are +7 tonight but they've played well, covering the spread in 5 of the last 6 games all as underdogs. Hardaway has been a major reason why, as he's put up 20+ points in six of the last 7, including three games of 30+ scoring. Hardaway has also chipped in 4+ assists in 3 of the last 4 and has 4+ rebounds in 3 of the last 6.
Jaren Jackson, Jr. (DK: $5,800 FD: $7,100 Y! $22)
The youngster, Jaren Jackson, is a great play tonight because of his a) value – especially in DraftKings and b) because he can score in a variety of ways. The Grizzlies are going to be in a dogfight vs. Toronto on Tuesday but Memphis is 7-2 at home this season. Jackson is averaging 18 ppg the last two but also has 3+ blocks in four of the last five games. That goes along with 6+ rebounds in 3 of the last 6 and even two straight 3+ assist contests. Memphis has a positive pace differential vs. Toronto and Jackson could be the major recipient of a big assist night from Mike Conley, Jr.
Pascal Siakam (DK: $ 6,000 FD: $ 7,500 Y!: $30)
Pascal Siakam has been one of the major producers on a very good Raptors team. Toronto is on the road at Memphis tonight but they are a very formidable 8-2 away from Air Canada Centre this season. You can contribute a lot of that success to Siakam, who has eight games of 15+ points over his last 10. He also puts up great rebounding numbers with 6+ in six of the last seven. The ownership for the Toronto PF is moderate at 20% despite the fact that it's not a great play on paper vs. a Memphis defense, allowing just 23 FPPG to the power forward position and only 5.7 REB/game. In this big matchup however, you have to think Siakam steps up.
Centers
Nikola Jokic (DK: $8,800 FD: $9,000 Y!: $39)
All we can hope for is that Nikola Jokic has a night like the similarly named Nikola Vucevic (30 points, 12 rebounds, 4AST) had yesterday vs. Golden State. There's no reason to think Jokic can't do just that against another California team, as the Nuggets host the Lakers. LA is giving up 40.8 FPPG to opposing C which also includes 11 REB/game. Jokic scores 49.6 FPPG in up-pace games and should be a major benefactor from a big assist night from teammate Jamal Murray. The thing that scares me about Jokic is his usage lately, as he's logged just 22 and 27 minutes in consecutive games. He still had an 11 assist and 10 rebound night in those 22 minutes vs. Orlando and had 16 points last time out vs. OKC. Jokic did log 32+ minutes in three games prior and that lower usage was probably for a) rest and b) because Denver won both contests handily. After 2 nights off, expect a lot of Jokic on the floor today.
Domantas Sabonis ($DK: $6,700 FD: $7,000 Y! $25)
Some people might shy away from Domantas Sabonis tonight because the Pacers are on a back-to-back but last night was more of an exhibition as Indiana toppled Utah by 33. Sabonis logged just 23 minutes last night but still scored 13 points, grabbed 10 boards, and dished out 6 assists. Pacers big man Myles Turner did log 25 minutes vs. Utah which could actually help Sabonis' usage as Indiana gives Turner fewer minutes in the B2B. When Sabonis logged 34 minutes two games ago vs. the Spurs, he responded with 19 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assists. The Pacers also play the Suns tonight, who are the NBA's 2nd worst team in terms of defensive efficiency. Phoenix gives up 37.9 FPPG to opposing C but Sabonis should be able to surpass that Tuesday.
Bam Adebayo (DK: $4,500 FD: $4,600 Y! $13)
The name of the game for Bam Adebayo in his favorable matchup with Atlanta tonight is 'usage.' When the Miami big man earned 36 minutes last time out due to Hassan Whiteside foul trouble, he responded with 16 points and 21 rebounds. Of course, some of the collateral damage from that game is the fact that Whiteside played just 12 minutes and will be fresh tonight. Even so, coach Erik Spoelstra has shown more confidence in Adebayo as he logged 26 minutes vs. Chicago the game before and had a 14 point, 13 rebound game. He's now logged 19+ in 4 of the last 7 games and should see plenty of floor time vs. an Atlanta team giving up 24.1 FPPG to C reserves alone, which includes nearly 7 boards to big men off the bench. There's incredible value in Adebayo tonight.
Don't sweat, Greg should return from his flight issues for tomorrow's newsletter on what is a jam packed 10-game NBA docket. Until next time...
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