- LineStarยฎ Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA Plays 1/14 | The Curse of Okafor Island
Top NBA Plays 1/14 | The Curse of Okafor Island
The everyday quest that DFS'ers embark on is finding players like Jahlil Okafor last night, a $3k play that returns a 19X ROI with 24/15/5 vs. the Pistons and Andre Drummond...somehow. On the flip-side, you spend $8.2k on Hassan Whiteside vs. the Hornets' dead last ranked defense vs. the C spot and he gets 7 points and 11 rebounds for 30 less fp at a salary of $5k more.
This is our passion - this is our curse. Hey look, a 6-gamer for Tuesday night's slate. There are two real nice spots tonight and a whole lot of ugly. Let's take a dip:
Tonight's DFS Headlines
Suns @ Hawks
Keep an eye on Trae Young ($10.2k) because he sat last game with hamstring soreness and the Hawks were down nearly 40 points at one span. Young is a powerful player, his presence (or lack thereof) opens (or closes) a wide variety of guys here on both teams.
Jazz @ Nets
The return of Kyrie Irving ($8.6k) over the weekend as well as his and Caris Levert's ($5k) subsequent minutes restrictions have really killed DFS value for the Nets, specifically Spencer Dinwiddie ($6.7k). Balance is good for real basketball, but we want usage. Can any Brooklyn player even be rostered against Utah's top 10 defense?
Rockets @ Grizzlies
Chalk game of the night by far with a betting total of 239. Memphis has won 5 straight (scoring 119+ in each), Houston just hung 139 on Minnesota Saturday, and it's the #3 and #8 teams in pace. It's James Harden ($13k) ๐จHammer Time ๐จ as Russell Westbrook is out (rest) for Houston.
Knicks @ Bucks
Starters are probably off the board in this ๐ฃBlowout Game ๐ฃ as the Bucks are an incredible -16.5 home favorite.
Mavericks @ Warriors
The Mavs have put up 140+ points in both games vs. the Warriors this season with Luka Doncic ($12.6k) averaging a 33/11/13 line. Dallas may put on the brakes though, considering they have to visit Sacramento tomorrow. Kristaps Porzingis is expected to make his return in one of the two games.
Cavs @ Clippers
Schedule makers aren't doing the Cavaliers any favors having them play the Lakers and Clippers on consecutive nights. That kind of kills some DFS value for LAC as well with a ๐ฃBlowout Game ๐ฃlikely coming with the Clippers -15 point favorites.
Guards
Dillon Brooks DK $5.4k | FD $5.3k
Things were already looking good for a Dillon Brooks bounce back game in an up-paced game vs. Houston. Then the Memphis injury report came out with Brandon Clarke, Kyle Anderson, Jae Crowder, and Bruno Capoclo all in danger of missing the tilt vs. the Rockets. That gives a crazy bump to Brooks and at $2.2k less than Ja Morant. Brooks had 15+ shots in 4 of 5 games as it was, he'll likely hit the 20+ for the 3rd time in the last 4 tonight.
It's a beauty of a usage and production boost with all the potential missing pieces for Memphis tonight.
D'Angelo Russell DK $7.9k | FD $7.3k
One thing you're going to get from D'Angelo Russell tonight is shots. He took 24 shots last game and was 5-9 from three point range, an impressive feat considering Russell missed the 6 games prior with a shoulder injury. Dallas is on leg one of the back-to-back tonight so they could keep a little in the tank and not make this a blowout game as -8 road favorites. The Mavs have also given up 40+ fp to 4 of the last 5 PGs they've faced.
RJ Barrett DK $5.6k | FD $5.2k
It might not sound so crazy that the Knicks keep things respectable tonight as +16.5 underdogs against Milwaukee. The Bucks are an astounding 18-2 at home but their winning margins the last 6 at Fiserv Forum have been by 9 (SA), 2 (MIN), 11 (ORL), 28 (IND), 7 (LAL), and a 4 point loss to the Mavs. Those aren't incredibly out of hand (except for the Pacers) and the betting total is 227 for tonight. R.J. Barrett should see great usage in a fast paced game, as the Knicks are missing Dennis Smith, Jr. (oblique) and Frank Ntilikini (groin) and with a banged-up Reggie Bullock (thigh) in the back court as well as Marcus Morris (neck) sitting in the front court. Barrett has two 23+ real point outings in his last 5 and has at least 5 rebounds in 4 of 5.
๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐
A lot of people like Elie Okobo ($3.2k) moving into the starting lineup for the Suns as Ricky Rubio is off for the birth of his child. Okobo had 9X this price when Rubio sat December 21st.
If you can get James Harden ($13k) and Luka Doncic ($12.6k) both in the lineup it would be good because they're each probably going off tonight. That leaves you about a $4k average for the rest of your roster but no Westbrook for the Rockets and Doncic has averaged a triple-double vs. the Warriors this year.
Forwards
Ben McLemore DK $3.5k | FD $4.1k
The biggest thing you like about Ben McLemore tonight is the price. He only needs 24 to get 7X at this price, a number he's hit in two of the last three games. McLemore has been inserted in the starting lineup in place of Danuel House starting last Saturday and he responded with a 13 point night on an efficient 6 of 8 shooting. House actually got more minutes vs. the T'Wolves since it was a 30 point blowout but the Rockets are just +5 favorites tonight vs. the Grizzlies. Memphis and Houston are in the top 8 in Pace and the Rockets will have more usage available with Westbrook (rest) sitting.
Kelly Oubre, Jr. DK $7.9k | FD $7.2k
If Trae Young does play and with the news that Ricky Rubio will not (personal), the Hawks/Suns game becomes a lot closer. The betting line is only Atlanta +3 and Kelly Oubre, Jr. gets a slight 4.2 fp boost with Rubio out. The last time the Suns starting PG missed a game, Oubre put up a 26/5/4 line. Granted that was against Houston, but the Suns play an equally up paced Atlanta team tonight that also ranks last defensively vs. the SF spot, allowing 47.25 fp/48. Oubre has two 50+ fp nights over his last three road games.
Joe Ingles DK $6.1k | FD $5.4k
Joe Ingles can be slotted into the F position tonight and it's likely going to be him or Donovan Mitchell going off against a Brooklyn defense struggling in the back court lately. The Nets rank 29th vs. the SG spot the last 5 games and Ingles has gone for 40+ fp in his last two road contests. Mitchell is fighting back from an illness which should leave Ingles with another good usage night.
๐๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐๐
Khris Middleton ($7.4k) should get to the same 40 fp floor he's had the last three games. Middleton had 23 points in 24 minutes vs. the Knicks on 12/21 and 16 points in 18 minutes on 12/2.
Center
Clint Capela DK $7.8k | FD $7.9k
Clint Capela is a risk because he missed Saturday's game with a heel injury but has had 2 nights to rest and should be good to go. When Westbrook sat three games ago for scheduled rest, Capela dropped 22 points and 22 rebounds in a fast paced game against Atlanta. It should be another up-tempo game vs. Memphis tonight and even though the Grizzlies are solid in post defense, Capela has gone for 59+ in two of his last three.
๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐
If the Knicks do get blown out by the Bucks, could Bobby Portis ($4.5k) have some upside? Portis took 17 shots and grabbed 13 rebounds when New York lost by 24 to the Jazz in their last road beatdown.
____________________________________________________________________________________
You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.
Freeroll
The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:
1st Place: Your Choice: One month LineStar premium membership, a LineStar T-Shirt or $10 via PayPal.
Bonus: If you place 1st in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you can choose 2 prizes.
Please Note: While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as youโd like, you can only win a prize 1 time.
Winners: DM us on Twitter with a screenshot of your win to claim your prize.
๐ฅ SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play
Today's SuperDraft multiplier must-play is James Harden. Feels like a "check yourself" game vs. Memphis who has won 5 straight. Harden also gets a 7% usage and 11+ fp boost as Westbrook is out (rest).
๐จ Bonus: Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium
Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!
Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.