Top NBA Plays 11/4 | The Pace is Right for Monday

It's looking like a nice high scoring night is in the cards to begin this week's NBA DFS slate. 8 of the top 10 teams in pace are in action tonight with every game having a total of 223 or higher.

Prices seemed to be climbing towards the end of last week with guys like Kevin Love and Malcolm Brogdon climbing towards $9k plus. Granted, they also performed for that price but it's trending like we're going to have to start digging a little deeper for value. To quote Tolstoy, "oh well."

A six pack of high scoring games on tap for tonight.

Tonight's DFS Headlines

Houston has been experiencing growing pains getting their new superstar tandem acclimated to each other. The Rockets are just 3-3 to start the season. It should be a nice DFS game to target when Houston (4th in pace) takes on Memphis (3rd in pace). Russell Westbrook is also out for load management in the back to back so look for a retro game for James Harden.

Minnesota is tops in the NBA in possessions per game but they'll be without Karl-Anthony Towns tonight as he wraps up his suspension for being a bad boy. It should still be a high scoring contest against Milwaukee, who is the #2 scoring team in the league.

New Orleans visits Brooklyn in yet another point-friendly game as the betting O/U is 231.5. Brandon Ingram ($7200) was priced at $9.4K last game but suffered a head injury and only finished with 15 fp. He's cleared for Monday.

It just keeps getting worse for Golden State. They already have buyers remorse after going 0-4 so far in their new stadium. They're already facing injury woes to Klay Thompson and Steph Curry. Now Draymond Green is out indefinitely after tearing a ligament in his thumb and D'Angelo Russell ($8600) could miss Monday's game with an ankle injury. Portland is a -9.5 road favorite tonight, could this one get ugly?

Guards

James Harden (DK: $10,800 FD: $11,000 Y! $55)

It's finally James Harden and James Harden alone's Rockets team tonight. We're about to see retro Harden, as Russell Westbrook sits on the back-to-back for the Rockets. There's a 14 fp boost for Harden when Westbrook isn't on the floor and the Beard should be fresh after playing just 26 minutes vs. the Heat on Sunday. Memphis is 3rd in the NBA in pace. Also, even though there are new faces on both teams, Harden averaged 47.3 points scored (not fantasy) in 4 games vs. the Grizzlies last year.

Harden is projected for a near 60 point fantasy night with Westbrook out. We want even more than that.

Isaiah Thomas (DK: $4900 FD: $5,300 Y! $10)

Isaiah Thomas could be the rare bird in that his minutes being limited actually improves his fantasy value. Thomas knows his time on the court is scarce, so therefore he comes in and just launches. That's evidenced by a 14 shots in 19 minutes performance vs. the Timberwolves on Saturday. Thomas isn't shooting 100% of the time either though, as he has 5, 10, and 7 assists over the last three games. A lot of people are going to be fading Thomas with Detroit's lowered pace and in the "Ish Smith Revenge Game" for Washington but you like the ceiling for the price on the I.T. guy.

The price doesn't seem to be catching up to the performance - yet - for Isaiah Thomas

Caris Levert (DK: $6,000 FD: $6,500 Y! $22)

Nice price point on Caris Levert tonight. He is coming off a down game in 6-17 shooting on Saturday but that was on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. Plus you still like the 17 fga in that one. That was the fourth straight game with 15+ field goal attempts for the Nets SG. It's a great matchup on Monday with the Pelicans #6 highest pace and 3rd worst defensive efficiency.

The Pelicans have had their struggles vs. the SG position...and every other position.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes  / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Damian Lillard($8900) and CJ McCollum ($6100) are likes vs. the Golden State banged up back court, but then again, that game could be a blowout and their usage may be limited.

Forwards

Kelly Oubre, Jr. (DK: $6,300 FD: $6200 Y!: $28)

The biggest problem with Kelly Oubre, Jr. hasn't been production, it's been staying out of foul trouble. Oubre has a 21 and a 25 point fantasy night in the last two, but he's also had 4 fouls in both of those which have kind of destroyed momentum. You like that Oubre has at least 10 fga in each game this season and that the Sixers are giving up 20.8 points and 6.3 rebounds to the SF over the last 20 games. Ownership is still decent for Oubre, Jr. so people haven't soured on him too much.

Oubre, Jr. isn't the GPP play you'd think he'd be after two down games.

Rui Hachimura (DK: $5,700 FD: $5,500 Y!: $17)

Big bounce back game for Rui Hachimura today. The rookie finally played like his age with a 2-11 night from the field on Saturday. Scott Brooks taught the youngster a lesson in that game, limiting him to just 22 minutes. You have to like Hachimura's usage before that though, going for 35+ minutes in three straight with field goal attempts of 20,14, and 15. The pace with Detroit is kind of a downer tonight, but the Pistons have struggled vs. the PF spot with Blake Griffin out. Three straight PFs went for 40+ fp vs. the Pistons to start the season.

Washington has the worst pace differential of the night. Will that destroy Hachimura's production?

Al Horford (DK: $6900 FD: $7500 Y! $29)

Lot of things to like from Al Horford on Monday night. First off, there's no Joel Embiid for Philadelphia, as he continues to serve his suspension for getting in a tussle with Karl-Anthony Towns. According to the LineStar Usage Matrix, Horford sees a bump of 4.15% more time on the court but also an increase of 8.4 fp when Embiid misses time. That trend continued on Saturday when Horford was able to get 24 shots in the Sixers offense, ultimately finishing with 48 fantasy points. LineStar users have also pointed out that Aron Baynes is starting for Phoenix now. He was Horford's teammate in Boston for two years so the two are very familiar with each other.

A nice boost for Horford with Embiid out of the lineup Monday.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Brandon Clarke is coming off a 41 point fantasy night on Saturday and should see lots of action Monday with Jaren Jackson, Jr. ruled OUT. Houston is last defensively vs. the PF and just gave up a 35 fp night to Meyers Leonard and 51 to Taurean Prince the game before that.

Center

Jahlil Okafor (DK: $3,100, FD; $5000 Y!:$13 )

Just when you think prices are climbing across the board, DraftKings throws out a $3100 salary on Jahlil Okafor. Granted, Derrick Favors (Q-knee) could be back for the Pelicans but how has Okafor not earned more playing time after posting 38 fp in each of his last two games? The Pelicans play Brooklyn on Monday, a team that just gave up a 20 rebound night to Andre Drummond on Saturday and allowed a 44.75 fp night to Jonas Valanciunas last week in just 20 minutes of court time. With Brandon Ingram also possibly being limited after suffering a head injury last game, you'd have to think the minutes are there for the Big Oka Tree.

It wouldn't be smart of Alvin Gentry to confine Okafor to the pine and ruin his good momentum.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Andre Drummond will cost you $10,400 but he's been blowing up in his contract year. Drummond has 68 rebounds in his last three games (!) and had 75 fantasy points vs. the Nets on Saturday. With Towns and Joel Embiid both on suspension tonight, Drummond looks like easily the highest scoring big man on the slate.

May the points be with us tonight. On paper, it's looking like a great DFS night so you can bet the the LineStar chat will be jacked up on Monday so check it out. You can also follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more DFS and sports betting talk.

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