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- Top NBA Plays 11/5 | The Defense Doesn't Rest Tuesday
Top NBA Plays 11/5 | The Defense Doesn't Rest Tuesday
Talk about a night and day NBA card between Monday and Tuesday. There were 6 games on the schedule yesterday, with 8 of the top 10 pace teams in action with each game having a total of at least 220 points. The high water mark for the O/U today is just 218.5 and that's in the Spurs @ Hawks game that is stringent on Trae Young's ($9,200) health.
It may be a lower scoring evening in the league, but that's just on paper. Let's see how the DFS card shakes out:
Tonight's DFS Headlines
One of the inspirations for Joaquin Phoenix laughing maniacally in the Joker was anybody who rosters Nikola Jokic ($9,400) right now. Jokic has three fantasy games in the 30's over his last 4. Like clockwork though, the Nuggets host Miami and the league's #3 team in defensive efficiency. You think Jokic is going to stink it up again and it's one of those nights he probably goes for 38/14/9
It's slim pickings in this defensive oriented slate but the Pacers have the best matchup with Charlotte's #27 team in defensive efficiency. Malcolm Brogdon's ($8200) pricing has come back down to Earth a bit after he was $10.2k on Sunday.
Do we play anybody in the Magic at Thunder matchup? Orlando hasn't broken 100 points scoring even once this season and combine with OKC for the #5 and #4 team defenses in the league respectively.
Can the Bulls keep things close as +7 home underdogs so that Lakers players are a potential roster tonight? Anthony Davis ($10,000) and LeBron James ($9600) are the two highest priced players on the card but what's the usage in a potential blowout?
Guards
Tyler Herro (DK: $5,800 FD: $5,800 Y! $16)
Both Justise Winslow and Derrick Jones missed Miami's last game and are questionable for Tuesday vs. Denver. In their absence, Duncan Robinson ($4000) had a breakout game with 39 points. For a little higher price, Tyler Herro gives us a less volatile floor vs. the Nuggets. Make no mistake, Herro was also great on Sunday vs. the Rockets, scoring 12 points but dishing out 7 assists and grabbing 7 rebounds for a 34 point fantasy night. Herro has 30+ fp in three straight, including a 41 point night last Tuesday vs. Atlanta.
The Heat don't see a big boost without Winslow or Jones - but that's good considering they are both GTD.
Dejounte Murray (DK: $6700 FD: $7,000 Y! $24)
The Spurs must have hired Mike Shanahan as a special consultant in the offseason, as they've begun to use the 'by committee' approach that killed Broncos RBs fantasy value in the early 2000s. San Antonio has been doing this with Dejounte Murray and Derrick White running the point. Of course a lot of that is load management for Murray as he makes his way back from a knee injury but you have to like his numbers in limited minutes. Murray had 44 fantasy points in just 24 minutes Sunday vs. the Lakers, going 7-12 while grabbing 11 boards. The Spurs have a nice pace differential vs. Atlanta (5.66) and Murray will be matched up with Trae Young playing on an ankle that may not be 100%. Another efficient night in the books.
Jeremy Lamb (DK: $6,100 FD: $7,300 Y! $22)
In a largely defensive-centric night, it's important to get some exposure on the one offense with a favorable matchup and that's Indiana. The Pacers play Charlotte in what could be a 'revenge game' for Jeremy Lamb, who spent 2015-2019 with the Hornets. Charlotte also has the 4th worst defensive efficiency in the league and rank 26th in opponents field goal %. There are things to like and not like about Lamb's last game. The thing not to like is that he had just 6 field goal attempts after averaging 16 the two games prior. What you do like is that Lamb still had a 34 point fantasy night on Sunday, aided by 9 FTs, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. You gotta love a player that can fill up a score sheet in a multitude of ways.
The one area of defensive Charlotte excels is vs. the SG. With all of the GTDs on the Pacers, Lamb is almost guaranteed to get his shots though.
๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐
Kemba Walker ($8500) has been by far the focal point of the Celtics offense with field goal attempts of 22, 17, 19, and 19 the last four. He's getting calls too, going to the FT line 14X in each of the last two. Malcolm Brogdon ($8200) is in the same spot as Lamb as his usage should climb with Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and Doug McDermott all being GTDs vs. the Hornets.
Forwards
Hamidou Diallo (DK: $3,500 FD: $4700 Y!: $10)
The matchup isn't there against Orlando's #5 defensive efficiency team but you have to like Hamidou Diallo's price, ownership and ability to get shots. Diallo has 11, 9, and 14 field goal attempts the last three games and had 10 rebounds in 20 minutes two games ago vs. Portland. Both Steven Adams (knee) and Nerlens Noel (ankle) are a GTD for Tuesday so the minutes could potentially be there again for Diallo.
Miles Bridges (DK: $5,200 FD: $5,400 Y!: $18)
It's hard finding value at the forward position in all of these defensive games but a solid GPP play is Charlotte's Miles Bridges. First, the reasons why this is a contrarian play - 1) it's two of the 9 worst teams in pace and 2) Indiana is 1st vs. the SF position defensively over the last 5 games. Here's why Bridges could have a better game than his projected 25.62. The main reason is that he at least gets his shots, going for 10+fga in four straight games with a high of 17. Second, those numbers that Indiana has used to allow a high of 26 fp the last 5 games have come against Cedi Osman (twice), Tony Snell, Caris Levert and a banged up Otto Porter, Jr. Speaking of banged up, the Pacers could be missing Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner in the front court as well as Doug McDermott on the wing making Bridges even more valuable.
T.J. Warren and the Pacers defense has been stout vs. the SF recently - but look at the players they've faced.
Rudy Gay (DK: $5200 FD: $4900 Y! $18)
Atlanta gets a boost in their back court (as well as in pace) with the return of Trae Young but they could potentially be thin in the front court. John Collins (ankle) and Alex Len (ribs) will both likely take the court, but they are banged up and may lose their effectiveness. Either or both Collins and Len could see their minutes limited anyway, as Atlanta is on the front end of a back-to-back and with a much more winnable game against Chicago (also on 0 days rest) coming to town Wednesday. Thus, Rudy Gay has value in this one. Gay has 10, 9, and 13 field goal attempts over the last three and has two double digit rebound performances in that span.
๐๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐๐
Kevin Love ($8,800) is on a tear going for 48+ fantasy points in 3 of the last 4 games. Once again, he's up against Boston's top 10 unit in defensive efficiency tonight though. Dwayne Bacon ($4900) is F eligible in DK, and was a huge part of the Charlotte offense with 21 shots last game. T.J. Leaf ($5000) is drawing a lot of love with all of Indiana's injuries and the fact he had 13 fga and 15 rebounds with increased PT last game.
Center
Anthony Davis (DK: $10,000, FD; $11900 Y!:$52 )
$10k plus for Anthony Davis? Worth it not only because Nikola Jokic ($9400) is slow and out of shape and Nikola Vucevic ($8400) has been held to 40 fp or less in 5 of the last 6 as the other high priced big men on the card. Davis has a floor of 45 points in 6 games this season but he's also reached 60+ twice. Throw in the fact that Davis is back in his hometown of Chicago tonight, the field goal attempts should be flowing like they were with 28 shots vs. Dallas on Friday. That same night, Andre Drummond was busy grabbing 24 rebounds vs. the Bulls.
๐๐๐ Other Likes ๐๐๐
Tristan Thompson ($7100) has value after posting 40+ fp in 4 of the last 5. He's seen his field goal attempts drop from 16,18, and 19 over a three game stretch to 8 and 10 the last two. Thompson has to rely on rebounds to reach his value but Boston is 12th in offensive boards/game.
We'll get this defensive oriented slate out of the way to make room for a 9-game card on Wednesday that includes some nice back-to-back matchups. Make sure to check out the LineStar chat tonight. You can also follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more DFS and sports betting talk.
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