Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

Before we get to tonight's slate, I just want to highlight that this is a "first look" article. I typically start writing this the night before and finish up early the morning of the slate. A LOT can happen, especially in NBA, between the morning and when the slate locks. I'm mentioning this because I got some questions on Friday about why I didn't talk about Boban, an obvious lock, in my article. When I wrote the article, he was not the starter and we didn't know about the Gortat situation, so there was no need for him to be mentioned. On most days, I'm basing a lot of my recommendations off of scenarios that may or may not happen. Some of these guys will be solid plays regardless of news but others may change depending on what happens. You have to be able to adjust to news in the NBA or you won't be successful. I'll do my best to post updates to the article closer to lock when time permits to help with this.

With that said, we have some injury news that we already know about as well as some to watch for throughout the day, so be sure to check out the injury report below. There are a few teams including Minnesota, Memphis, Toronto, New York, and Orlando who are all on back to backs. There are some games missing Vegas information because there are either injuries to watch or the teams are playing late into Sunday night. For the most part, even without all the details just yet, there are some obvious games we can target for DFS purposes and some very obvious games to avoid on a slate of this size. The game between Boston and Denver is particularly ugly with one of the lowest totals we've seen all season between two top-three defenses. We are also looking at some serious blowout potential in Oakland tonight with the Warriors pegged as 14 point favorites against a struggling Grizzlies' team on the second night of a back to back. We've got a lot to get to, so let's jump right in.

Games to Target

We have a few games currently missing Vegas information that have the potential to be intriguing. But for the time being, there are two games that pretty clearly stand out, in my opinion:

Pelicans @ Thunder (OKC -4, 238 O/U)

This game has all the ingredients for a shootout and plenty of fantasy production to go around. The Pelicans are fourth in the league with 118.9 points per game and Oklahoma City is 13th with 112.1 points per game. Each team plays a fast pace and this should be viewed as neutral on both sides in that category. The Thunder are solid at defense, allowing just the 12th most opponent points per game and a solid 105 defensive rating. They can obviously be beat and with the amount of points the Pelicans score and the pace they play at defense is going to be hard to come by in this one. I'm particularly interested in the Thunder, as the Pelicans are next to last in opponent points allowed per game.

Timberwolves @ Clippers (LAC -5, 228 O/U)

Currently, we have no Vegas information on this game but I'm pretty comfortable pegging it with a high total and a single digit spread that will be in favor of the Clippers. We are waiting on some injury news on the Minnesota side (and for their current game to finish). Both teams play at a quick pace, with the Clippers ninth at 104.3 possessions and the Timberwolves 11th at 103.7 possessions. Each team is also top ten in points per game. The Clippers are scoring an average of 115.8 points per game, which is eighth in the NBA and the Timberwolves are scoring an average of 114.1 points per game, which ranks 10th. The Clippers are actually solid defensively, only allowing the 10th most opponent points per game. This doesn't mean Minnesota can't have fantasy production here but it will be more difficult to come by. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has a dream matching against Minnesota who has a poor 114.2 defensive rating and is allowing the 26th most opponent points per game in the league. UPDATE: The Vegas info is available now and it basically supports everything I just said. Attack this game especially the Clippers side.

Injury Report

Guards

Russell Westbrook, OKC (DK: $11.1K, FD: $12K, Yahoo: $55)

Highest total on the slate? (check) Spread close enough to assume the game will stay competitive? (check) Up tempo game? (check) This has all the makings for huge fantasy production. It's actually a slight pace-up game for the Thunder against a Pelicans defense that is 27th in total defensive rating and 29th in opponent points allowed per game. They are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to the point guard position over their last five games. Westbrook has had a bunch of success in this matchup previously, with 69 or more fantasy points in two of this three starts against New Orleans last season (52 the other start so still a very high floor). He's nearly averaging a triple-double early on this season with 25.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game. He has the highest usage rate of any player on the slate at 35.5% and the highest projection of the night as well.

Victor Oladipo, IND (DK: $8.2K, FD: $9.1K, Yahoo: $38)

Oladipo is coming off 2 straight 50+ fantasy point performances including when he crushed my soul on Friday night by nailing the game winning three point shot as time expired to defeat the Celtics. He's been stuffing the stat sheet, including having a heavier than usual involvement in rebounding where he's grabbed 14 and 12 boards in those last two games. The Rockets continue to be a good team for us to target players against for fantasy production. They are ranked 21st in total defensive rating at 111.3, 24th in opponent points allowed per game, and 26th in fantasy points allowed to the shooting guard position. Oladipo is averaging 33.1 minutes per game and 41 fantasy points per game, which comes out to a comfortable 1.24 fantasy point per minute to go along with his solid 27.9% usage rate. If we believe his recent spike in rebounding is going to be a trend, this should be another good spot for him to pick up some extra boards, as Houston is allowing the 20th most opponent rebounds per game at 45.5. Oladipo has one of the strongest floors in the NBA, only dipping below 30 fantasy points three times all of last season, and there's still room for value on his current salary if you consider the results he's had in his last two games.

Klay Thompson, GSW (DK: $5.9K, FD: $6.4K, Yahoo: $26)

I always want exposure to Golden State when they are playing but the spread in this one is pretty scary. The Warriors are fourteen point favorites against a Memphis team that doesn't score a lot of points and prefers to slow the game down and rely on their very strong defense to stay in games. The problem with this strategy, of course, is this is the Golden State Warriors and defense doesn't matter. You can't stop them. You really can't even slow them down. They are averaging 124.1 points per game, which is the highest in the NBA. The only thing teams can hope to do to stay competitive is to match them shot for shot but Memphis simply isn't equipped to do this. They are one of the slowest teams in the league, ranked 29th, and they only average 104.6 points per game, which is 27th. Thompson has had a strong minutes floor so far this season, even in the Warriors blowout wins. He played 30 minutes in a 22 point win over Washington, he played 34 minutes in a 28 point win over the Knicks, he played 27 minutes in a 25 point win over the Bulls, and he played 36 minutes in a 17 point win over the Timberwolves. This is a solid matchup as the Grizzlies are extremely strong at defending the paint which typically forces a few extra shots on the perimeter. They are allowing teams to shoot 36.8% from beyond the arc which plays right into Thompson's obvious strength. The risk with him of course is he relies heavily on scoring and three point shooting to rack up fantasy points, so if his shot isn't falling, you can be left with disappointing results. Despite the volatility, he's an inexpensive way to get exposure to the best team in basketball and this matchup should create a lot of open looks for him to get into a rhythm.

Forwards

Nikola Mirotic, NO (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.4K, Yahoo: $34)

Admittedly, the Thunder have been pretty good defensively, ranking sixth in total defensive rating at 105 and allowing only the 12th most opponent points per game. But this game is going to be so fast and the Pelicans are such a high powered offense that, at best, Oklahoma City might make them a little less efficient with their opportunities. I can't see them stopping them entirely. Vegas obviously agrees, with this game having the highest total of the night at 238. Mirotic is a unique player who can score from pretty much anywhere on the court. He's a power forward with 45.5% of his points coming from within the paint and he's averaging 10.9 rebounds per game which both suggest someone who is constantly battling down low. But he also attempts seven three point shots per game which is the highest on his team and he's shooting an impressive 36.5% on those shots. Tonight, we should expect him to attack near the rim a little more often as the Thunder are 23rd in opponent points allowed in the paint. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are second in the league in points scored in the paint with 61.1. This is a nice advantage for New Orleans and a way for them to stay in this game despite being on the road. Oklahoma City is good at defending the perimeter, allowing just 28 three point attempts per game (seventh fewest) and for opponents to shoot 33% from beyond the arc, which is the eighth lowest. This likely limits his three point shooting upside but I still like him to get involved underneath the rim and pick up a few extra rebounds and second chance points to make up the difference. Mirotic has had at least 40 fantasy points in six of his nine games this season. I like him to do that again tonight.

Danilo Gallinari, LAC (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.9K, Yahoo: $25)

The Timberwolves are one of my favorite teams to attack in DFS. They play at a fast pace, ranking 11th with 103.3 possessions per game and they score points with an average of 114.1 per game. But they don't play defense, ranking 26th in total defensive rating and opponent points allowed per game. This is exactly what we are looking for when searching for fantasy production. Their high scoring keeps them in games but their pace and lack of defense allow their opponents to have monster fantasy production. Gallinari, similar to Mirotic, can score from anywhere on the floor, including near the rim and from beyond the arc. He's second on the team in points scored per game and rebounds per game and he's first on the team in three point attempts and three point shooing percentage. He has nearly an even split between points scored in the paint and points scored from three point range. The Clippers are seventh in the league in points in the paint with 52.9 per game while Minnesota is 24th in the league at defending the paint, allowing 52 points per game. The Clippers are third in the league in three point shooting at 39.1% while Minnesota is 23rd in opponent three point shooting allowing 37.5%. Gallinari should be able to stuff the stat sheet tonight and produce from basically anywhere on the floor. He's one of my favorite mid-range options on this slate tonight.

Mario Hezonja, NYK (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.6K, Yahoo: $12)

As I talked about in the introduction today, this is one of those "what if" scenarios as we need news to break our way for Hezonja to become a viable play. I'm not expecting Hardaway to play today after he had to leave the game twice last night, appeared to be in pain, and it's the second night of a back to back. Hezonja was the clear beneficiary of Hardaway being in and out of the game last night, as he played 25 minutes. If you've never rostered this guy before, I'll go ahead and sum it up for you: The man likes to shoot...a lot. With Hardaway ranked 15th in the NBA averaging 18.7 attempts per game, that's a lot of shots we need to replace today. Hezonja should help to fill that void. If he's putting up double-digit shot attempts at basically minimum salary, he grades out as one of the best value options on the board. It doesn't hurt that this is a favorable matchup either, with the Bulls ranked 21st in opponent points allowed per game.

Centers

Andre Drummond, DET (DK: $8.6K, FD: $9.2K, Yahoo: $40)

One of the pieces of news I was waiting on came early today, which is great news. Hassan Whiteside is out for Miami tonight, which is a massive matchup upgrade for Drummond who I honestly thought was already a little under priced to begin with. With Whiteside out of the way, Drummond is going to have a much easier time on the boards, which he really doesn't need help with since he's first in the NBA averaging 15.4 rebounds per game. Whiteside is second in the NBA with 14.6 rebounds per game. This was shaping up to be an epic battle between two monsters and instead, Drummond is going to eat on his own. On paper, both of these teams score and defend in the paint and rebound well. You can pretty much throw all that out the window on the Miami side (don't forget James Johnson is also still out). Drummond is a lock for a double-double and should have a ton of opportunities for second chance points. He's now one of my favorite players on the board today.

Boban Marjanovic, LAC (DK: $4.5K, FD: $5.4K, Yahoo: $13)

It looks like Boban is here to stay but his price won't be this low for very long so we need to jump on while we still can. It turns out, according to reports, that Gortat is not dealing with an injury but is simply losing his role. Doc Rivers appears to be unleashing the Boban and he's shaping up to be the new starting center. He's a fantasy production monster with 1.53 fantasy points per minute so far this season. He already has games this year with 27 fantasy points in 18 minutes, 31 fantasy points in 12 minutes, and 38 fantasy points in just 23 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the worst individual defenders at the center position in the NBA and he's not overly strong on the boards either. The Clippers have a massive advantage in the paint tonight, ranked seventh with 52.9 points per game while the Timberwolves rank 24th at defending the paint, allowing 52 points per game. Minnesota is also allowing the second most opponent rebounds per game with 51.1. Boban should absolutely reach a double-double tonight as the starter in this spot and a ton of upside for more at his still ridiculously cheap price.

Montrezl Harrell, LAC (DK: $5.5K, FD: $5.7K, Yahoo: $17)

With Gortat falling out of favor, there should be enough minutes to go around between Boban and Harrell that I'm actually really warming up to the idea of playing these guys together. I've already gone into a bunch of detail between Boban and Gallinari about all the reasons why I like the Clippers today as a whole. The same can be applied here. There isn't anyone on the Timberwolves side of the ball who can stop these guys. Harrell isn't quite as strong from a fantasy standpoint as Boban but he's close. He's averaging a respectable 1.27 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 21.9%. The minutes have been a bit volatile so far, averaging 21.4 per game, but I'm expecting them to stabilize as Gortat is essentially phased out all together. It seems like Doc has realized his best chance to win is with the Harrell/Boban combo. In their last game, without Gortat, Harrell played 25 minutes and put up 34 fantasy points including twelve rebounds. That's an outstanding return on his current price tag. The Clippers are definitely one of my favorite teams to target tonight outside of the Pelicans/Thunder game.

Freeroll

Congratulations to the winners of Friday's freeroll contest!

• 1st Place: boilerfan17: 295.75

• 2nd Place: mikewall47: 287.75

• 3rd Place: justinreniva: 281.00

The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:

• 1st Place: $10 via PayPal

• 2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug

• Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!

Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.

Here's the link to today's contest!

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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