- LineStarยฎ Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA Plays 1/16 | Break Out the Fatigue Angle Modulator
Top NBA Plays 1/16 | Break Out the Fatigue Angle Modulator
It's your typical condensed NBA Thursday slate with 5 games on tap - that actually isn't bad compared to seeing just two games some nights. What really ruins tonight's docket is that 3 of the 5 games feature teams on 0 days rest after Wednesday's huge 10 contest feature.
Two of those games (Boston @Milwaukee, Orlando @ Clippers) have spreads factored in with fatigue (-9, -11.5) and even Denver visiting Golden State (DEN -6) isn't as high of a number as you'd expect. That leaves the Suns @ Knicks and the Jazz @ Pelicans as the main games to target. Let's see what we can dig up here.
Tonight's DFS Headlines
Suns @ Knicks
Phoenix really missed Ricky Rubio (personal) last game after losing to the worst team in the league, Atlanta 110-123. Just when Rubio likely gets back after the birth of his child, the Suns lose Kelly Oubre, Jr (concussion). Do the Knicks keep things close as just +3.5 home underdogs?
Celtics @ Bucks
Boston is a huge +9 point underdog in this battle of Eastern Conference titans, mostly because the Celtics lost at home to Detroit last night 103-116. The C's could also be without Jaylen Brown (thumb) and Jayson Tatum (knee) as Boston tries to go to 2-0 vs. Milwaukee this season.
Jazz @ Pelicans
Utah brings a 10-game win streak into the Big Easy, finding great offensive balance as they've scored 120+ in 4 of the last 5. New Orleans is no pushover in this one though, winners of 9 of the last 13 despite being very banged up. The Pelicans injury list is another long one tonight.
Nuggets @ Warriors
Denver was efficient in their 100-86 win over Charlotte last night, playing no starter more than 31 minutes in preparation for the back-to-back vs. Golden State. The Nuggets did lose Jamal Murray with an ankle injury and could be without his back court mate Gary Harris (groin) for the 2nd straight game as well. Golden State is trying to avoid a 10th straight loss tonight.
Magic @ Clippers
Can Orlando go two for two at the Staples Center? The Magic took down the Lakers last night but have lost 11 in a row to the Clippers.
Guards
PJ Dozier DK $3k | FD $3.5k
One of the bigger mysteries on tonight's slate is Denver's G-League call-up PJ Dozier. He had 12 points in 13 minutes last night vs. Charlotte and should see a playing time increase with Denver on the back-to-back and with Jamal Murray suffering an ankle injury and being doubtful for tonight's tilt with Golden State. Gary Harris may miss a 2nd straight game as well, which would bode well for Dozier against the Warriors' #29 ranked defense vs. the SG.
Damion Lee DK $5k | FD $4.9k
Damion Lee has reached the end of the 1st phase in his NBA journey, signing a multi-year contract and putting the days of being a 2-way player behind him. Lee has missed the last two games while his contract was being sorted out so he should be fresh and ready to roll vs. a Denver team that is subsequently playing on the back-to-back. The Nuggets are also potentially without their entire starting back court due to injuries, which opens up Lee's matchup tremendously. It's time for Steph Curry's brother-in-law to start making a name for himself and rewarding Golden State's faith in him.
Joe Ingles DK $6.1k | FD $5.6k
Joe Ingles just keeps putting the English on the ball with 20+ real points in back-to-back games. Ingles has shot 6-8, 4-8, and 3 of 5 from three point range in his last three games. Utah gets a pace boost vs. New Orleans, a Pelicans team that ranks 25th in opponents three-point percentage.
๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐
Torrey Craig ($4k) also gets the boost for Denver (+2 usage, +11 fp) if Murray and Harris are both out and in a good matchup vs. the Warriors.
Kemba Walker ($7.3k) still hasn't seen the price drop despite being held to under 30 fp in 3 of 5 games since returning from injury.
Lou Williams ($6.9) has 20+ real points in each of the last 3 games but has still failed to break the 40fp barrier. Could he actually be better with Paul George in the lineup? Either way it's not the best matchup vs. Orlando tonight but a great contrarian play spot.
Forwards
Gordon Hayward DK $6.4k | FD $5.8k
Boston is on the back-to-back and there could be a whole lot of forward usage opening up as Jaylen Brown suffered a thumb injury Wednesday and Jayson Tatum missed the game vs. Detroit with knee stiffness. The obvious choice to pick up the slack if one or both of those players do miss tonight is Gordon Hayward. The Boston SF / PF shot 11/15 last night vs. Charlotte en route to a 39 fp night. Hayward has logged 36, 34, and 35 minutes the last three times Boston has been on leg two of the back-to-back. It will be an up-tempo game vs. the Bucks, as the Celtics get the best pace boost of the night.
Julius Randle DK $8k | FD $7.9k
Julius Randle doesn't have the best matchup tonight vs. Phoenix's top 10 defense vs. the PF. That being said, Randle is transcending matchups right now, as he scored 25 points and grabbed 15 boards in just 26 minutes last game in the 26 point loss to Milwaukee. The Suns are in no position to ๐ฃBlowout Game ๐ฃanybody, especially with Kelly Oubre, Jr. out (concussion). Randle has taken 20 shots in each of the last two and in 4 of his last 8 total.
Michael Porter, Jr. DK $3.6k | FD $3.6k
Michael Porter, Jr. has shown signs of coming into his own with 18 and 19 real points the last two games. Denver is on the back-to-back here, but that could work into Porter's favor as Will Barton had 32 minutes and Jerami Grant 31 in the front court. The Nuggets have Golden State tonight with ๐ฃBlowout Game ๐ฃpotential. Either way, Porter should see increased time with the injury to Jamal Murray and with Gary Harris a possibility to miss as well.
Barton and Jokic are the biggest benefactors of the possible Murray/Harris absence, but are also on the back-to-back.
๐๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐๐
Mikal Bridges ($4.5k) steps into the starting spot for Kelly Oubre, Jr. - but Bridges just doesn't get enough shots with a max of 8 over his last 8 games.
Center
Rudy Gobert DK $9.2k | FD $9.2k
New Orleans is a bit banged up in the front court with Brandon Ingram (knee), Derrick Favors (hamstring) and Jahlil Okafor all expected to play, but through ailments. Rudy Gobert is a solid play even when the other team is at full strength. In the last three games, the Utah big man has shot 23-32 with at least 13 boards and with a 3 block average. Gobert scored just 9 points vs. New Orleans back on January 6th, but he did grab 19 rebounds.
๐๐ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐๐
Nikola Vucevic ($8.5k) played 32 minutes last night vs. the Lakers but had 16/24 and 22/11 games in two contests vs. the Clippers last season.
Nikola Jokic ($9.6k) might hit value by default with Murray and Harris possibly out for Denver. There's a good chance of a blowout vs. Golden State though.
____________________________________________________________________________________
You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.
Freeroll
The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:
1st Place: Your Choice: One month LineStar premium membership, a LineStar T-Shirt or $10 via PayPal.
Bonus: If you place 1st in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you can choose 2 prizes.
Please Note: While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as youโd like, you can only win a prize 1 time.
Winners: DM us on Twitter with a screenshot of your win to claim your prize.
๐ฅ SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play
Today's SuperDraft multiplier must-play is Nikola Vucevic. Orlando being in the back-to-back should drive ownership down and Vucevic averaged 19 points and 17.5 rebounds in two games vs. the Clippers last season.
๐จ Bonus: Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium
Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!
Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.