Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry

I backed off of last night's slate. Yea, yea I know, I'm a chicken I get it. There was too much uncertainty as we got closer and closer to lock and I just didn't feel like I had a strong "feel" for the slate. I knew which players I wanted to use but I needed some clarification before I could truly lock them in as viable plays. When 6:30 EST rolled around, we still didn't have news on Tim Hardaway Jr., Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, or anyone from the Timberwolves. I decided at that point to cancel and live to fight another day. Something I've learned over the years as a DFS player is to know when to take a night off. It's hard to be profitable when you're forcing in plays you don't feel good about just because you feel like you have to play every slate. Profit in DFS is a marathon, not a sprint.

Today is a really interesting four-game Tuesday slate. Three of the four games opened with a one point spread and all three of those teams favored by a single point are on the road. The fourth game, between Atlanta and Charlotte, has an 11.5 point spread in favor of the Hornets. None of these teams are on the second night of a back to back so they should be well rested. Injury news isn't overwhelming considering slate size but there are a couple of players worth monitoring including Luka Doncic and Taurean Prince, who would both open up usage and opportunity for their teammates.

Games to Target

Hawks @ Hornets (CHA -11.5, 233.5 O/U)

You weren't expecting me to talk about this game were you? The truth is, I actually like all these games tonight. All the totals are reasonably high and the spreads, besides this game, are very close. It's probably asking a lot for this game to be overlooked on such a small slate but I do think the double-digit spread will keep the masses away. This game still has the highest total on the board and there are still plenty of paths to fantasy production on both sides. For Charlotte, it's a pace up game against the fastest team in the NBA that also happens to allow the 28th most opponent points per game and ranks 19th in total defensive rating. Even if this game were to get out of hand late, it likely means the Hornets players already met or exceeded value with the extra possessions they will receive and the high efficiency they should experience against such a weak defense. On the Hawks side, Taurean Prince is doubtful to play and opens up quite a bit of opportunity for his teammates. The Hornets have been solid on defense so far this season but the extra usage and low price tags outweigh the potentially difficult matchup. When I first looked at this slate, I basically had this game crossed off my list, but after breaking down each game, I find myself liking a lot more here than I thought.

Injury Report

Guards

Kemba Walker, CHA (DK: $9.3K, FD: $9.2K, Yahoo: $39)

Clearly the risk here is if this game blows out and Walker takes a seat early on. But if Atlanta can keep this close, even for three quarters, Walker should crush once again tonight. People are likely to back off him tonight when they see the price and notice he's coming off of three straight mediocre games with under 40 fantasy points. I like him to bounce back tonight in a prime spot against an Atlanta team that is ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed to point guards, 19th in total defensive rating, and 28th in opponent points per game allowed. This is a huge pace up game for the Hornets, as the Hawks play at the fastest pace in the NBA with a ridiculous 108.1 possessions per game. Walker has one of the highest usage rates on the slate at 30.3% and he's averaging a comfortable 1.37 fantasy points per minute. With the extra possessions the Hornets are likely to pick up and the lack of defense on the Atlanta side, I'm having a hard time seeing a scenario tonight where Walker returns disappointing results.

Bradley Beal, WAS (DK: $7.4K, FD: $8.8K, Yahoo: $31)

The Wizards players are priced way up on FanDuel and way down on DraftKings tonight. Beal has a $1.4K difference in his salary between the two sites to the point where you can argue he's a little over priced on FanDuel and a little under priced on DraftKings. This will be an up tempo game with both teams ranked inside the top 15 in pace of play. Both teams struggle on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 25th (Wizards) and 24th (Mavericks) in total defensive rating. Beal leads the team in points per game, field goals attempted per game, field goal percentage, three pointers attempted per game, and three point percentage. He's playing crazy minutes at the moment, with 40 in two of his last three games and 35.8 over his last five games. During that span, he's had a 26.5% usage rate and averaged 36.3 fantasy points per game. The Wizards desperately need a win here, so I expect Beal to play heavy minutes and put up a ton of shots again here tonight.

Trae Young, ATL (DK: $7.3K, FD: $7.5K, Yahoo: $29)

With Taurean Prince doubtful tonight (UPDATE: He's out) it should be the Trae Young show for the Hawks. If we run the usage matrix with Prince off the floor this season, we see Young as the clear beneficiary, receiving a 5.93% usage bump (on top of his already high 26.6% usage) and an additional 13.6 fantasy points per game. The sample size is larger than I thought it would be, at 83.9 minutes, so I'm okay putting some stock into this. The issue with Young, of course, is he's a rookie and has been extremely volatile. He has a bunch of games hovering in the 24 to 31 fantasy point range and then a couple of monster 60 and 56 fantasy point performances. Already averaging 15.2 shots per game, he'll likely take 20+ shots tonight without Prince on the floor. Even in blowout situations this season, Young has still been playing heavy minutes as the Hawks look to give him as much experience as possible so he can be a building block for this franchise. He's averaging 31 minutes per game and has never played less than 26 minutes in any game this season. With the additional usage he'll see tonight, I like his chances of a big game. If Atlanta can keep it close, the sky is the limit.

Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (DK: $12.6, FD: $12.8K, Yahoo: $55)

Yes, he's extremely expensive tonight. There is absolutely an argument for fading if that's the route you want to go. I'm typically a supporter of locking in the raw points on short slates, even if it isn't the most optimal lineup build, provided you don't need to completely sacrifice other areas of your lineup. There should be enough value today, particularly with Taurean Prince doubtful to play (again, he's out now), to make Giannis work on this slate. We also have other potential injury news where more value could open up. I didn't specifically talk about this game in the "games to target" section but that's only because it should be pretty obvious you're going to want exposure here. These are two teams in the top six in scoring and the top half of the league in pace and this game has the highest total of the night and a spread of only one point. Giannis has the highest usage rate of any player in the NBA at 34.1%. He's averaging nearly two fantasy points per minute (1.90) over his last five games and that includes two games where he played less than 23 minutes due to a blowout and then an injury. He averages a double-double and approaches a triple-double on almost a nightly basis. He's a machine. Play around with some roster builds tonight that include him and don't include him and see how you feel. He's far and away the highest projected player on the slate.

Caris LeVert, BKN (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8K, Yahoo: $30)

Forward is a bit ugly today, as we have Giannis and then everyone else. The mid-range is especially ugly with Taurean Prince doubtful to play, though Harrison Barnes becomes pretty interesting if Luka Doncic were to miss tonight. For now, we'll turn our attention to LeVert as the breakout season continues. Like any young player, there are bumps in the road as we can see from his fantasy results. He has a floor down in the teens but a massive ceiling approaching 50 fantasy points. He bounced back from an ugly 17 fantasy point performance on October 29th with three straight games of 37 fantasy points or more. This is not the most appealing game of the night, with a slower pace and the lowest total between two bad offenses. But they are even worse defenses, which should allow players on both sides to stuff the stat sheet. LeVert leads the Nets in several fantasy relevant categories including minutes per game (31.5), points per game (20), and shots per game (15.7). He's has an impressive 26.3% usage rate while averaging 31.5 minutes per game and 1.11 fantasy points per minute. As awesome as Devin Booker is on offense, he's horrendous on defense, ranking 81st out of 88 shooting guards in DRPM last season at -2.44. LeVert will likely matchup with him tonight which will provide an additional boost. This game sets up well for LeVert to be successful and I like him to end up on the higher end of his wide range of fantasy outcomes.

DeAndre Bembry, ATL (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.9K, Yahoo: $14)

Here is one of the pieces we can consider if trying to pay up for Giannis tonight. Trae Young is the obvious benefactor in terms of usage with Prince set to miss tonight's game, but Bembry is the other clear winner as he will slide into the starting lineup today and play 30+ minutes. He's been productive (and consistent) in his playing time so far this season. He's averaging a respectable 24.8 minutes per game and 23.3 fantasy points per game, which equals 0.94 fantasy points per minute. If we do a simple projection of 0.94 x 30 minutes we are looking at 28.2 fantasy points. I actually think he could play more than 30 minutes, as he should even pick up the garbage time were this game to get out of hand. This also doesn't factor in the small bump in usage he sees (1.91%) with Prince off the floor, which actually makes my simple projection a bit conservative. I think we are looking at the potential for seven times the return on his salary today, particularly on DraftKings. To give you an idea of ceiling, the last time he played 30 minutes this season he put up 46 fantasy points including 16 rebounds and five assists. The most likely outcome is he falls somewhere in between, which would easily make him the best value play on the board. He'll be a core player for me tonight.

Centers

DeAndre Ayton, PHX (DK: $7.5K, FD: $8.5K, Yahoo: $30)

The number one overall pick in the draft is not disappointing so far in the early going. He's had 40 or more fantasy points in five of nine games and 36 or more fantasy points in seven of nine games to start the season. He's loading up the stat sheet, averaging a double-double with 16 points and 10.7 rebounds per game while playing a very healthy 32.1 minutes per game. His usage rate is second highest among centers tonight at 19.1%, which is resulting in 1.18 fantasy points per minute. The Nets have been getting crushed by opposing centers (although in their defense the last three they faced were Drummond, Capela, and Embiid) ranking 26th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. I really like the advantage for Ayton on the boards tonight. The Nets are 22nd in opponent rebounds per game allowed and 28th in second chance points allowed. Meanwhile, the Suns, thanks to Ayton's work on the glass, give up the fourth fewest opponent rebounds per game. Assuming this trend continues, Ayton should be able to pick up some easy second chance buckets underneath while keeping the Nets off of the boards.

Jusuf Nurkic, POR (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.6K, Yahoo: $23)

He can be a difficult player to roster with the uncertainty in his playing time but there are a couple of things working in our favor tonight. First, he's hot at the moment. He's had 34 or more fantasy points in four straight games and 40 or more in two of those four games. He's played at least 23 minutes during that span which is more than enough time for him to pay off his salary given how productive he is when on the court, averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute. The second reason I like him tonight is Portland will need his defense against Giannis and company in what is shaping up to be a battle between these two playoff contenders. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, which is obviously hard to predict, he should be on the floor as often as possible when Giannis is out there to try and slow him down. We saw this same scenario play out last season where Nurkic played 32 minutes in both games against the Bucks and had 42 and 47 fantasy points. He has the highest usage rate (23.9%) and scores the most fantasy points per minute of any center on this slate. He's priced less because of his minutes floor being so low. Since we can safely assume his minutes will be on the higher end tonight, given the matchup, he becomes one of the better point per dollar bargains on this slate.

Jarrett Allen, BKN (DK: $5.2K, FD: $6.7K, Yahoo: $18)

Despite all the love I gave to Ayton for his offense and rebounding, the same cannot be said about his defense. The Suns are getting crushed by opposing centers, ranking 25th in fantasy points allowed to the position over their last five games. Some notable center performances in this matchup include Valanciunas (36 fantasy points in 25 minutes), Noel (53 fantasy points in 26 minutes), and Gasol (40 fantasy points in 31 minutes). Allen has been producing at a fairly high level, averaging a fantasy point per minute and playing around 25 minutes per game. The Nets, with Allen playing a large role, are ninth in points scored in the paint. Meanwhile, the Suns allow the second most opponent points in the paint. Allen should have a field day underneath the basket in this spot, he just better hope he hits his shots on the first try with the disadvantage he'll be at in rebounding. The Suns are 28th in total defensive rating and 29th in opponent points allowed per game however, I don't see that being an issue. With the additional boost he should receive in efficiency tonight against weak defense, his price is too cheap.

Freeroll

Congratulations to the winners of Friday's freeroll contest!

• 1st Place: ayyoocharles: 341.25

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• 3rd Place: marilyn58: 325.50

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Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @glandry if you have any questions or feedback on the daily newsletters and hit me up on Twitter (@GP_Landry).

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