Written by LineStar Fantasy NBA Writer @GP_Landry 

Just a four game slate tonight so we'll keep this short and sweet. It looks like Russell Westbrook will miss again. Despite the Rockets' really awful start to the season, they should be able to keep it close against a team on the second night of a back to back without their star player. We also have a lopsided matchup between the Celtics and Suns which will be a very low total and slow pace. I want to have interest in Boston against a terrible Phoenix defense but I'm having a really hard time pulling the trigger on any of these players recently with how deep their rotation is and how much the usage gets spread out. We also have a couple of matchups between powerhouse teams that are all top ten in both defense and scoring, which should be fun to watch. The Thunder are the only team on the second night of a back to back tonight, so keep that in mind. Let's get to it.

Games to Target

Bucks @ Warriors (GS -7, 234.5 O/U)

Do we have a possible preview of the NBA Championship on our hands tonight? If Milwaukee continues their strong play, they can certainly make a case for being the top team in the Eastern Conference. This game puts the 10-1 first place Warriors up against the 8-2 second place Milwaukee Bucks. Golden State is first in points per game and Milwaukee is second. Both teams are top ten in total defense, with the Bucks ranked third and the Warriors ranked tenth. Both teams are top ten in pace of play with the Bucks ranked sixth and the Warriors ranked tenth. Both teams are even ranked in the top ten in opponent points allowed per game. Are we getting the picture? These are two awesome teams. While both are strong on defense, ultimately, the strong offenses and pace of play here will win out. I think we see players on both sides perhaps play a little less efficiently than normal but still put up solid fantasy performances. We do have some value tonight on the Golden State side with Draymond Green missing the game, so we'll talk about that as well. UPDATE: There's already some line movement here which makes this game even more appealing. The total is now up to a ridiculous 241 and the spread has gone down to six in favor of the Warriors.

Injury Report

Guards

James Harden, HOU (DK: $10.1K, FD: $11.5K, Yahoo: $53)

This shapes up as a really good night for the struggling 4-5 Houston Rockets to get back on track. They are on the road, but up against a Thunder team that is on the second night of a back to back, and Westbrook is out today. The fact that they are 4.5 point favorites on the road is a pretty telling sign. This is a pace up game for Houston with Oklahoma City playing at the fifth fastest pace in the league. They have a strong defense, ranked 5th, but Westbrook being out is a downgrade and they're still 16th in opponent points allowed per game. Harden has obviously missed some games due to injury and is still trying to find his rhythm but as a result, his price has dropped significantly. He's averaging 27.8 points per game, 1.42 fantasy points per minute, and is playing 35.4 minutes per game. He's too cheap for the potential ceiling here and his floor is solid.

Chris Paul, HOU (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.3K, Yahoo: $39)

I'm going to stick with the Houston backcourt here because I have no idea who is going to cover these guys. Dennis Schroder? He has a -2.63 DRPM and ranked 76th out of 81 point guards last season. All the talk about usage opening up for the Thunder with Westbrook off the floor but people are overlooking how much of a hole he leaves on defense for this team as well. Paul is another player who has seen a significant price drop, as he's down $1.2K on DraftKings since the beginning of November. Similar to Harden, he has a healthy stat line including 17.3 points, 9.3 assists, and 34.8 minutes per game. He's averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute which makes him a little too cheap today. We are looking at a thirty fantasy point floor here which would be disappointing but wouldn't kill your lineup at this price with a ceiling over sixty, which would return at least seven times his value if he hits in that range.

Lou Williams, LAC (DK: $5.9K, FD: $6.2K, Yahoo: $21)

Avery Bradley is going to miss his second straight game tonight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will start for the Clippers and you could certainly look at him as a punt player who will play about 25 or so minutes. My concern with him is the lack of usage (15.1%) and he's only averaging about 0.76 fantasy points per minute. He can still exceed value if he truly plays 25+ minutes at this price tag but he'd really need to work for it. Williams, meanwhile, will remain with the second unit where he has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA at 28.8%. He should soak up a few extra minutes without Bradley (played 27 in their last game) and he's averaging over a fantasy point per minute. This game isn't quite as appealing as the Bucks/Warriors but it still has a solid 225.5 total and a spread of only five points. There could be some sneaky pivot options here tonight.

Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (DK: $11K, FD: $12.5K, Yahoo: $56)

It seems like all the Bucks' players had their prices fall off a cliff today. Is it just because of the matchup against Golden State? Giannis was $12.6 last game, and granted, he didn't have a good game but a $1.6K drop for one of the best players in the NBA seems ridiculous. We'll take advantage of it though. The good news is there is nobody to cover him without Draymond Green available. Kevin Durant is not a strong defender. The bad news is he will likely be responsible for covering Durant on the other end, which always increases the risk of foul trouble. I still love him in this spot, with this game environment, and the matchup upgrade, but it's worth noting. Outside of that, there's really not much analysis needed here. We already talked about the game environment here earlier in the article. This is clearly the best game for fantasy production on the slate. He's averaging a double-double with 25.8 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. He has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA at 30.6% and he has the highest fantasy point per minute on the slate at 1.63. With some of the value, particularly from his opponent, it shouldn't be difficult to fit him in.

Khris Middleton, MIL (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.5K, Yahoo: $32)

If you haven't figured it out yet, you are going to want exposure to this game. On paper, the matchup doesn't look great for Milwaukee, with the Warriors ranked 10th in total defensive rating and 10th in opponent points per game allowed. There are a couple of things to consider here. First, like we just talked about, with Draymond out, we could see Durant try to take on Giannis which would leave Middleton in a potential mismatch elsewhere. Second, outside of Boston and Oklahoma City, every team on this small slate has a difficult matchup, with six of the eight available teams ranked inside the top ten in defensive rating. We are going to have to roster some players tonight in less than ideal spots. The game environment here is very appealing with a very high 234.5 total, only a seven point spread, and both teams also ranked inside the top ten in pace of play. This should provide both sides with extra opportunities to offset the lack of efficiency against tough defenses. Middleton is as steady as they come with just one game below 30 fantasy points all season and that was because he only played 22 minutes in a blowout victory. His price is off right now as well. He was $8K only four nights ago on DraftKings, then he dropped to $7K after that blowout win where he didn't play much, then he put up a monster 43 fantasy point performance and he dropped another $300? I'm looking to take advantage of the inefficient pricing here and pick up a really strong floor/ceiling combination from a player averaging over a fantasy point per minute, playing 33.5 minutes per game, with a 24.2% usage rate, in the best game of the night.

Alfonzo McKinnie, GSW (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.8K, Yahoo: $10)

McKinnie has been making the most of his opportunities when they come around, mainly in blowout situations. He's coming off a strong game where he went six of nine shooting with three assists and two rebounds that resulted in 22 fantasy points in 29 minutes. Today, we likely don't have a blowout situation (we could though it is Golden State after all) with the game between two of the best in the NBA but with Draymond Green set to miss the game, McKinnie should pick up some extra playing time. In 101 minutes with Green off the floor this season, McKinnie sees a 3.38% usage increase and an additional 6.49 fantasy points per game. That's a really nice lift for someone who is either at or very close to the minimum salary on all sites today. This is a very inexpensive way to get exposure to the team with the highest implied total and it opens up plenty of room to pay up at other positions.

Centers

Jusuf Nurkic, POR (DK: $6.6K, FD: $8.1K, Yahoo: $25)

As is always the case with Nurkic, the unpredictability of his minutes can be dangerous. He's played over 20 in five straight games, which is a plus. And when given the opportunity, we know how dangerous he can be. He's averaging a double-double with 14.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, which has resulted in 1.30 fantasy points per minute. His usage rate is really high for the center position at 24%. If we could just pinpoint how much he was going to play each night, he'd probably be one of the most expensive centers on the slate all the time. I like how this game sets up from a matchup perspective. The Clippers are in the bottom half of the league (19th) in opponent points allowed in the paint and they are 24th in second chance points allowed. Boban Marjanoivic is not intimidating on the defensive end with a 1.45 DRPM which was 30th among centers last season. Assuming this game stays close (only a five point spread) I think the Blazers will need Nurkic to help defend the deadly one-two combo of Boban and Harrell who have both been playing well offensively.

Steven Adams, OKC (DK: $5.8K, FD: $7.8K, Yahoo: $26)

I don't have a ton of interest in the Thunder tonight, playing on the second night of a back to back, but Adams is standing out to me. For starters, he feels way too inexpensive on DraftKings. After last night's performance, he shot up $400 on FanDuel but dropped another $600 on DraftKings, creating a fairly large discrepancy between the two sites. He doesn't benefit quite as much as the other players on this team with Westbrook off the floor but it doesn't hurt him either with a 1.14% usage increase. Houston is 25th in the NBA in rebounds per game and they allow the second most opponent points per game in the paint. The Thunder, meanwhile, are eighth in points scored in the paint (51.8 per game) and third in second chance points scored (16.3 per game). Adams will have to battle with Clint Capela, which won't be easy, but he's performed well in this matchup in the past. In three games last season against the Rockets, Adams had 37, 32, and 29 fantasy points which gives us a solid floor with room for upside at his current price tag (on DraftKings).

Kevon Looney, GSW (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.8K, Yahoo: $10)

The other player who benefits from Green's injury is Looney, who should pick up extra minutes at both power forward and backup center tonight. Milwaukee is ranked 15th in fantasy points allowed to the position over their last five games and that includes a game where Willie Cauley-Stein only played 19 minutes and scored just 17 fantasy points. There's nothing overly special about Looney from a fantasy perspective (his strength is actually on defense) but he does average 0.83 fantasy points per minute which should be enough for him to exceed value considering the extra playing time he should receive without Draymond tonight and his minimum salary price. Similar to McKinnie, who has more upside, this is another cheap way to get exposure to the team with the highest implied total on the board and fit in some of the high priced studs in the process.

Freeroll

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