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- Top NBA Plays 12/10 | Monday's Going to be Fun Day with 10 on the Slate
Top NBA Plays 12/10 | Monday's Going to be Fun Day with 10 on the Slate
We kick off another solid week of NBA DFS with the LineStar Daily Dribble for Monday. The early value seems to be on centers and guards for this 10 game slate, which should allow you to spend on Antetokounmpo, LeBron, Durant, or Davis at the F position. Then again, Russ Westbrook is in action after a 73.25 point night on Friday. That's the great thing about NBA DFS - there's variety and lots of it. This is Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) guiding you through today's docket. Speaking of, my underdog play of the day is the Chicago Bulls, who looked absolutely stunning (like, with a taser) in a 56 point loss to the Celtics on Saturday. It's national lager day and you definitely need a drink to bet on Chicago tonight, so let's crack open tonight's schedule and see what else is on tap:
Games That Stand Out Tonight
Russell Westbrook had a huge DFS night on Friday to say the least (24 points, 17 rebounds, 13 assists) but the Oklahoma City Thunder somehow still lost 112-114 to the Chicago Bulls. OKC is back in action tonight favored by what seems like a lot (-6) vs. the Utah Jazz who are above .500 on the road.
Speaking of the Chicago Bulls, are they much improved since firing Fred Hoiberg and also getting Lauri Markkanen back from injury? Well, they followed up the win over OKC with a 56 point loss to Boston on Saturday. It could be a big night for the Sacramento Kings who are favored by -2.5 tonight at the United Center.
Do we stay away from Los Angeles Clippers players tonight? They are favored by 11 at the Phoenix Suns who have lost 8 straight games. The Milwaukee Bucks are also in a blowout spot giving -14 to the Cleveland Cavaliers who actually beat the Washington Wizards by 15 over the weekend (as +7.5 underdogs).
The Indiana Pacers are streaking in the right direction with three straight wins that pushed them into 4th in the East. They have a favorable DFS matchup (IND -6) with those same Washington Wizards who lost to the Cavs on Saturday. Washington is 4-10 on the road and has dropped games by 21, 25, and 15 in their last five away contests.
In some other games, the Golden State Warriors (-10.5) are back in 1st in the West and host the Minnesota Timberwolves. LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5) meet up with the Miami Heat at the Staples Center and the Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets is expected to be one of the closest games of the night spread-wise.
As an important last note.. Boston just released their injury list which is ugggly, leaving lots of value available there tonight. Kyrie Irving and Aron Baynes are out with Al Horford and Gordon Hayward doubtful to play tonight. Look for Daniel Theis, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and others to provide salary relief tonight.
Guards
Eric Bledsoe (DK: $7,500 FD: $7,800 Y! $31)
The Bucks take on the Cavs with a huge pace differential favoring Milwaukee (97.23 to 104.59). Eric Bledsoe is a risk vs. Cleveland tonight because the Bucks just acquired George Hill. What that trade could do, however, is inspire Bledsoe with legit competition behind him. Bledsoe has just 23 total points the last two games but he did have 27 in each of the two prior. Cleveland is actually 14th vs. opposing PF which should limit Giannis Antetokounmpo's production and open the door for another big evening from Bledsoe. The Cavs are 30th vs. the PG position and have allowed three 50+ fantasy point games at that spot in their last four.
Collin Sexton (DK: $4,900 FD: $5,300 Y! $21)
While the trade of George Hill has the potential to close one door in Eric Bledsoe's production – it also increases the opportunity for Cleveland's Collin Sexton. As long as newcomer slash oldcomer Matthew Dellavadova doesn't cut too much into Sexton's minutes, Cleveland has made the case that it's the rookies' team now. Sexton logged 40 minutes of court time Saturday vs. Washington and responded with a 29 point, 6 assist night. That's three straight games with 34+ minutes for Sexton and he's responded with 20+ points in each contest. The Bucks are 25th vs. the PG the last five days and allowed a 28 point, 7 assist night to Emmanuel Mudiay to start the month.
De'Aaron Fox (DK: $7,600 FD: $7,700 Y! $33)
The only threat to De'Aaron Fox's production on Monday is if the Kings blow out Chicago by 50 like the Celtics did Saturday. The Bulls have allowed 2PG in perfect lineups the last 30 days and tonight should be a fast paced game (O/U 225) which favors another big night from Fox. The Sacramento PG seems to be coming into his own nicely with a 30 point, 12 assist night vs. Cleveland on Friday and going for 18 and 6 in a tough back-to-back situation on Saturday. The Kings do play their 3rd road game in 4 nights tonight, which may cut into Fox's production but he's worth the risk as Chicago is 28th vs. the PG the last 5 games.
Forwards
Lauri Markkanen (DK: $6,300 FD: $6,700 Y! $25)
New Bulls coach Jim Boylen didn't do Lauri Markkanen owners any favors Saturday when he pulled all five Chicago starters from the floor not once, but twice during the game vs. the Celtics. Markkanen logged just 18 minutes as a result, but then again, that's what happens when you're down 50. If the Bulls forward's minutes can increase today, we should see a return to the production that resulted in back-to-back 20+ point, 7+ rebound performances. Chicago takes on the Kings in what should be a very fast paced game (CHI +101.98, SAC +105.95). Overall, the Kings are 25th vs. the PF but Markkanen's ownership is down a bit (8%) because Sacramento has held three of the last four opponents to fantasy points in the 20's. Let's see where the Bulls' heads are at after such a bad beating last time out – do they rebound or form a mutiny?
Jaren Jackson, Jr. (DK: $5,900 FD: $6,900 Y!22)
Jaren Jackson's favorite movie scene is when Mick fouls out for the Dragons vs. Scott Howard and the Beavers in Teen Wolf. Jackson continually tries to recreate that scene which is breaking the hearts of his DFS owners. Jackson had 15 fouls total in the three games since a 43 minute performance vs. Brooklyn, keeping his usage to under 23 minutes in each. On the bright side, Jackson had just one foul the last time out vs. the Lakers and he responded with a solid 11 point, 8 rebound night. You'd like to see those numbers improve tonight vs. Denver who has allowed 32+ fantasy point nights in five straight games vs. the PF. In all five of those games the PF has scored above their average and Denver is 29th in the league vs. that position over that span.
Kyle Kuzma (DK: $7,200 FD: $7,500 Y! 29)
Let's say, hypothetically, that Heat coach Erik Spoelstra knows the formula for stopping his former player LeBron James. If that's the case, it should mean a big night for LA's Kyle Kuzma. The truth is Kuzma might have a big game even if LeBron does too. Kuzma has four straight 20+ point outings and has also grabbed 8+ boards in each of those games. He's logging great court time too with 34+ minutes in three straight games including 38+ in two of those. Ownership is down (4%) early because, overall, Miami has performed well (24.8 fppg) vs. the power forward position. Orlando's Aaron Gordon just went for 20 points and 13 boards three games ago vs. the Heat though, so there's great potential for Kuzma there.
Centers
Nikola Jokic (DK: $ 9,300 FD: $10,100 Y! $43)
Nikola Jokic is a must-play right now and there's even solid value in him tonight at the C position with Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns all in action. Jokic has essentially been a walking triple-double the month of December with double-doubles in the last four games. Jokic had 23 points, 15 assists, and 11 rebounds December 3rd vs. Toronto and has followed that up with splits of 12/13/8, 16/6/11, and 24/7/11. Jokic has a tough matchup vs. Marc Gasol and the Grizzlies on Monday, as they are 12th vs the C overall and 17th the last 5 days. You have to look at their competition too though, which includes Javale McGee, Marcin Gortat, and Jarrett Allen who aren't exactly offensive threats. Embiid and Davis have both put up 40+ fp nights vs. Memphis the last 5 games and there's no reason to think Jokic can't approach that this evening.
Boban Marjanovic (DK $3,800 FD: $3,900 Y! $10)
Boban Marjanovic is like a McRib tonight because you don't know exactly what you're getting but there's the potential that it might be good. The Clippers have a very favorable matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns who gave up a 43 point fantasy night to Bam Adebayo last time out and are 24th vs. the C the last 5 games. What we need from Marjanovic tonight is minutes, as he has logged 0 in 3 of the last 7 games. He did have 19 minutes of court time November 28th vs. the Suns, however, and responded with 12 points and 12 boards. On the bright side, the Clippers C has seen 13 minutes of court time in each of the last two games and has a 19 point, 8 rebound outing vs. Memphis over that span. There's potential for success – and failure – for this 1.44% owned player.
Bam Adebayo (DK $5,800 FD: $6,500 Y! 17)
People are souring a bit on Bam Adebayo as he continues to get the start for the injured Hassan Whiteside. The usage and output doesn't increase much for Adebayo with Miami's main big man out (usage +0.6%, fp -0.26). That being said, Adebayo had a very solid 22 point, 10 rebound night vs. Phoenix on Friday night. He got into foul trouble Saturday and was playing on a back-to-back but still had 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists in 29 minutes. The Heat are playing in their 3rd road game in 4 nights but Adebayo should approach a 40 point fantasy night vs. the LA front court.
That wraps up today's projections. Looking ahead, the NBA has given us just three games on Tuesday and four on Thursday, so we gotta get it where we can this week. Feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat tonight when Marjanovic plays 1 minute, when Kuzma goes for 50, or when the Bulls, my underdog of the day, top their Saturday performance and lose by 60.
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