Top NBA Plays 12/11 | James Harden & a Bunch of Other Dudes

The only #smocking gun that we see is that the approval rating for tonight's NBA DFS slate is at an all time low. There are only three games on the docket which means it's time to get creative. The last time we were presented such a small docket (last Thursday), each game ended up being 20+ point blowouts which means a lot of rested starters and basically a DFS apocalypse. Do we play light tonight and try to find some bargain basement reserves in the hopes that “big win city” prevails again on Tuesday? Find out which games are going which way as we preview the contests below:

We'd also like to thank you for being a trusty compatriot of LineStar on what is national app day. We hope that our tools have helped you find DFS success all through this year and into 2019.

The Three Game Tripod

When are oddsmakers and bettors going to realize that the Houston Rockets just might not ever turn things around this season? The Portland Trail Blazers are getting +6.5 points at Houston tonight in a game that the public is pounding the road team. The Rockets have dropped three straight and have failed to break 105 points in any of those contests – although they were all on the road and things may improve at home on Tuesday.

The game for blowout potential tonight is definitely the San Antonio Spurs hosting the Phoenix Suns. The Spurs are favored by over a dozen points vs. a Suns team that has dropped 9 in a row. To make things worse, Phoenix is not only on a B2B but also after an OT game vs. the Clippers last night.

The Toronto Raptors have a huge advantage tonight playing the Los Angeles Clippers who have their second game in as many nights. LA went into OT last night, overlooking the Suns and as a result, Toronto is favored by -4.5 on the road.

The DFS slate is very top heavy tonight with James Harden, Damian Lillard, Kawhi Leonard, and DeMar DeRozan. Those players are probably going to 'get theirs' per usual but let's find the ketchup that goes with the steak to get tonight's wins. Warning: there's probably going to be some reaches but that's what you do in a 3-game card.

Guards

Lou Williams (DK: $5,300 FD: $5,200 Y! $19)

This is totally dependent on if Lou Williams gives it a go tonight but if he's able to fight through the strained hamstring suffered yesterday, the Clippers PG could be one of the best value plays of the night for the ownership. LA is in a B2B but Williams logged just 11 minutes vs. the Suns after leaving with an injury. He's a game time decision but Williams has 21, 20, and 18 points in three of his last four healthy games. Toronto is very good (3rd) vs. SG reserves, but could rest some players with a game vs. Golden State coming up on Wednesday. Plus, Denver's Malik Beasley had 15 vs. the Raptors last Monday and Cleveland's Alec Burks had 13 points and 6 boards the Saturday before that.

Alternate Play: Milos Teodosic whose usage goes up 34% and fp a +55 when Williams is out.

Elie Okobo (DK: $3,800 FD: $4,100 Y!: $10)

IMPORTANT NOTE: Okobo was sent down to the G-League today, leaving Melton as the sole PG for the Suns. DO NOT PLAY Okobo!!!

A lot of people like the Suns' De'Anthony Melton in this matchup but he logged almost 36 minutes last night vs. the Clippers. On the flip side, Elie Okobo played just 22 last night. The first time the Suns played in a B2B with Okobo in the lineup, he logged 31 minutes and responded with 19 points, 4 assists, and 2 rebounds for 34 fp. Okobo has 22-27 minutes the last three games but still has 20+ fantasy points in each.

Forwards

Al-Farouq Aminu (DK: $4,700 FD: $6,300 Y! $15)

On paper, the Rockets are solid vs. the opposing PF position, ranking 3rd in the NBA in fantasy points allowed. To quote Janet Jackson in the 'what have you done for me lately' department things don't look so great for Houston as they've allowed four straight power forwards to score above their average. This bodes very well for Al-Farouq Aminu of the Trail Blazers tonight, as he has also been overachieving. Aminu has 33+ fantasy point nights in 4 of the last 5 games and he hasn't been projected for more than 26 in any of those contests. Aminu has 7+ boards in four of those games and even has two 20 point scoring outputs over that span.

Rudy Gay (DK: $6,400 FD: $6,500 Y! $22)

You have to at least give Rudy Gay a look tonight, as a lot of people will fade him thinking the Spurs are going to blow out the Suns. Even if that's the case, hopefully Gay can get his early and often. He's been on a tear lately, in perfect lineups on both December 5th and December 9th after tallying two 46+ fantasy point games in his last three. Gay had a 23 point, 15 board night in one contest and went for 31 and 7 in the other. Gay has logged 34+ minutes in 3 of the last 5 and the only reason why Phoenix has decent numbers vs. the PF lately has been lack of court time from the opposition – probably because the Suns have lost 6 of their last 7 by double figures. Gay's backup, Davis Bertans, is O today for personal issues and the other backup, Dante Cunningham, is battling an abdominal issue, so the minutes should go to the Spurs starter tonight regardless of score.

Montrezl Harrell (DK: $6,600 FD: $6,700 Y! $25)

One man's TMI (too much information) is another man's JEI (just enough information). Similarly in NBA DFS the second leg of a B2B destroys value for a starter – but it blows it through the roof for a reserve. The Clippers' Montrezl Harrell is listed as a PF reserve but his production is definitely starter-worthy, or it was starter-worthy. After seven straight 35+ fantasy point nights, Harrell has underperformed in his last four with lows of 13 and 18 fp. It's time for the LA PF to get back on track tonight, however. His biggest advantage is that he played only 23 minutes last night while both the starting Clippers forwards went for 37+ in an OT win over Phoenix. Toronto is going to be looking ahead to Golden State and Harrell's production increases 27% in down pace games. Expect Harrell to get starters minutes tonight.

Centers

Jakob Poeltl (DK: $4,100 FD: $4,200 Y! $10)

There are a couple things going right for a Jakob Poeltl play tonight. First off, he's up against the Suns who are playing in a B2B. The minutes should be there for the Spurs backup C, especially since San Antonio is favored by -12.5. Poeltl isn't a complete lost cause off the bench either. The 7- footer logged 18 minutes on Sunday vs. Utah and even has two 32 point fantasy nights in his last 5 games. He scored 14 and grabbed 8 boards vs. the Lakers and had a 20 point 7 rebound night vs. Utah on December 4th. 25 minutes or more of action vs. the lowly Suns could provide great value from the Spurs big man on this small slate.

Serge Ibaka (DK: $6,200 FD: $6,500 Y! $21)

There's value in Serge Ibaka tonight mainly because he's the 6th highest priced center in a 3 game slate. Ibaka had a 45 point fantasy night on December 9th, with 22 points and 6 rebounds. Ibaka should be good for a couple blocks vs. a tired Clippers team and his scoring could increase too, as there are rumblings Kawhi Leonard could sit Tuesday with a game vs. Golden State coming up Wednesday. The Clippers are allowing 10.3 reb/game to C starters and rookie Deandre Ayton went for 20 and 12 last night vs. LA. The Clippers are 9-2 at home, so tonight's contest should stay close whether LA is on a B2B or not.

Alternate: Jonas Valanciunas. If the Raptors do run away with this one and decide to rest a lot of their players for the Warriors game, Val could have a big night. Richaun Holmes got minutes at C last night for the Suns and responded with a 19 point, 7 rebound night vs. LA. Valanciunas has gone for 24 and 26 points scored and 8+ rebounds in the two games before last.

We did what we could with today's three game buffet. Our sacrifices today will be rewarded handsomely Wednesday with 11 games on the docket. You can find me on Twitter Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) trying to find out which underdogs are going to come through in tonight's NBA (and NHL) sports betting card. I'll also be on there starting fake Bryce Harper to the Twins rumors and rating cool pictures of dogs, so feel free to join the party.

Freeroll

Congratulations to the winners of yesterday’s freeroll contest!

  • 1st Place: millsap10 332.75

  • 2nd Place: dana522 305.75

  • 3rd Place: zto1234 301.25

DM us on Twitter with your winning lineup to claim your prize!