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- Top NBA Plays 12/12 | Close Spreads: Nail Biters or Trap Games?
Top NBA Plays 12/12 | Close Spreads: Nail Biters or Trap Games?
We've made it past another one of those challenging three game NBA dockets yesterday. There were some ups but mostly those skimpy slates make you feel like somebody who wronged Liam Neeson's family afterwards. Thankfully, we're back to a nice plump 22 teams in action for Wednesday.
In 1988 on this day in NBA history, the Miami Heat lost to the Jazz to begin the season 0-17 to set the record for most losses to start the season. Remember that tidbit when you think you have things bad Suns fans...
Games That Stand Out Tonight
The game of the night would have been the Toronto Raptors (11-3 on the road) visiting the Golden State Warriors (12-2 at home). That contest may have lost some luster with the Raptors playing in leg two of a B2B. Then again, Kawhi Leonard was out for rest last night and most of the other starters should be fresh after a 123-99 win over the Los Angeles Clippers.
Oddsmakers are giving the Indiana Pacers (+2.5) at least a fighting chance when they host the Milwaukee Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out last game and should be ready for a huge DFS night (if he plays).
Another possible home 'dog play is the New Orleans Pelicans (+2) inviting the Oklahoma City Thunder over for some gumbo. The Thunder struggled on the road last week, losing to the Chicago Bulls and only beating Brooklyn by two. The Pelicans are 10-4 at home.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have won exactly two road games this season (2-10) and they came against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Brooklyn Nets. Nonetheless, Minnesota is favored by -2.5 when they travel to face the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday.
If you take the good, you have to take the bad so therefore, the Facts of Life game of the night is the New York Knicks (-1.5) at the Cleveland Cavaliers. These two teams are a combined 14-41 but could this contest end up being a huge DFS affair?
There are a lot of close games "predicted" tonight, including the Memphis Grizzlies (-3) hosting the Portland Trail Blazers who are on a B2B. Some of these perceived tight contests look like a betting trap including the Washington Wizards (+3) at home vs. the Boston Celtics. Keep an eye on the Celtics' injury list, which is about the length of a David Foster Wallace novel right now.
Guards
Russell Westbrook is a huge play tonight (DK $10,900) as he's producing with a triple-double in three straight. Does Damian Lillard (DK $9,200) lose some value after scoring 34 points last night not to mention being Q-elbow? Stephen Curry (DK $9,800) has a 38 and 42 point night over his last three:
Wesley Matthews (DK: $4,500 FD: $5,500 Y! $11)
Wesley Matthews' value only increases slightly (+1.86%) with Dennis Smith, Jr. out but he's still a solid play for the value vs. the Hawks on Wednesday. Matthews is looking for a big bounce-back game after scoring just 18fp the last time out. He had been a very solid cash game play for the money prior to that with 29, 25, 27, and 30 point nights. Matthews will get SG and SF minutes on Wednesday which should boost both his assist and rebound numbers. Plus, Atlanta is 26th vs. the SF the last 5 days. In their last two, the Hawks have allowed a 36.5 fp night to Tomas Satoransky and 36 to Juancho Hernangomez. Matthews has to be licking his chops before this one.
Jrue Holiday (DK: $7,900 FD: $9,100 Y! $38)
If Rodney Dangerfield were alive and played DFS, he'd say, “I haven't spent on a Holiday like this since I paid for my wife and her boyfriend to go to Fiji." It's true that Jrue Holiday is going to cost you tonight but is his production all but guaranteed? He definitely needs a big bounce-back game after going for just 7 points and 6 assists last time out (22 fp). Prior to that though, Holiday posted four straight 40+ point fantasy nights including a 55 (37/5/5) and 71 (32/14/4). Julius Randle and obviously Anthony Davis are heavy DFS plays for the Pelicans tonight but if the New Orleans' backcourt is going to shine, it's Holiday time (OKC 16th vs. SG, 3rd vs. PG).
Derrick Rose ($DK: 5,800 FD: $5,900 Y!: $21)
On paper, the Sacramento Kings struggle in the front court, ranking 22nd and 23rd vs. the center and power forward respectively. You'd think that would be an area of strength though, with defensive minded big men Willie Cauley-Stein and Marvin Bagley III patrolling the paint. On November 9th vs. the Kings, Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns went for 39 points and 19 boards which debunks that theory. Somebody else who had a solid game in that meeting and should again Wednesday is Derrick Rose. The Wolves G has solid value and went for 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists in the previous meeting with Sacramento. Rose has a 42fp night and a 38fp night over his last two games and is seeing solid minutes with 34+ in both those contests.
Forwards
Kevin Durant (DK: $9,600) had 51 points and 11 boards last time vs. Toronto. Kawhi Leonard (DK: $9,400) is fresh after scheduled rest last night.
DeAndre' Bembry (DK: $4,300 FD: $5,800 Y! $14)
A very interesting play for Wednesday night's DFS docket is Atlanta's DeAndre' Bembry. Kevin Huerter could also be a play for the Hawks in this spot vs. the Dallas defense that is 30th in the league vs. the SG position. Dennis Smith, Jr. is out tonight for the Mavs which makes their backcourt even thinner. Bembry is trending upwards with a 28fp night and 38fp night in his last two. Bembry had 18 points in 19 minutes last time out vs. Denver and needs to see his minutes increase. That could happen if Dallas does indeed get the blowout win, as they are listed as -9 favorites. Atlanta did score a 111-104 upset at home in October and Bembry went for 11 points, 16 boards, and 5 assists in that contest.
JaMychal Green (DK: $4,600 FD: $5,400 Y! $13)
Memphis has a favorable matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers who are on a B2B Wednesday. Three Portland starters logged 37+ minutes in a close game with Houston last night, which could mean huge production for JaMychal Green. The Grizzlies PF had 13 points and 10 boards last time out and had back-to-back 39fp nights on December 5th and 7th. People are starting to sour on Jaren Jackson, Jr. as the Memphis starting PF (for DFS purposes) even though he has just two total PF the last two games. Portland is 2nd vs. the PF the last 5 games, but they are fatigued tonight and hopefully Green can steal a lot of Jackson's minutes.
Larry Nance, Jr. (DK: $5,700 FD: $5,800 Y! $15)
Larry Nance, Jr. isn't going to sneak under the radar tonight with Tristan Thompson out for Cleveland but for the price that the DFS sites are giving us, he's almost a must-play. Nance has a 37 point and 32 point fantasy night in his last two but his stock should start to rise considerably. Thompson and Kevin Love are out until mid-January with foot issues which should see Nance get consistent minutes in the 30's. He's already got 11+ points and 7+ rebounds in each of the last four, with minutes exceeding 27 just once. The Knicks have allowed a 34fp night to Jarrett Allen and 31.75 to Cody Zeller over the last two, so Nance is in a great spot Wednesday.
Bonus Play: Tim Hardaway, Jr. (DK: $6,800 FD: $7,000 Y!: 23)
At the risk of stacking too many players in the highly anticipated Knicks/Cavs matchup, Tim Hardaway, Jr. is still another solid play. Cleveland is 24th vs. the SG and allowed a 40 point fantasy night to Bradley Beal and a 39 point outing to Buddy Hield over their last three. Hardaway has scored 20+ in three of the last four but he's also well rested coming into Wednesday night's game, which boosts production 25%. Hardaway was benched two games ago for poor shooting, but he bounced back with 21/5/2. Just a solid, safe play for cash games at least.
Centers
Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns (DK: $10,000+) are all in action tonight, which provides value across the rest of the C board.
Andre Drummond (DK: $8,700 FD: $9,500 Y!: $40)
The C position is jacked tonight but is there value in Andre Drummond for about $2,000 less than the top tier players? Drummond has back-to-back 50 point fantasy nights and has went for at least 43 fantasy points in 5 of the last 7. Drummond has 36 rebounds his last two games and has a very favorable matchup with Cody Zeller and the Charlotte Hornets in this one. Charlotte is 30th vs. the C the last 5 games and has allowed 73 to Towns, 80 to Davis, and 52 to Rudy Gobert over that span. The Pistons and Hornets met up on November 11th with Drummond going for 23 points and 22 boards!
Enes Kanter (DK: $6,500 FD: $7,400 Y!: $23)
We need Enes Kanter to bake Knicks coach David Fizdale a cake or something to start getting his big man some more court time. Kanter played just 18 minutes last game and had only 6 points and 4 rebounds to show for it. Granted, it was on a New York B2B and the game prior Kanter went for 23 points and 14 rebounds (49 fp) in just 26 minutes. Even so, Kanter hasn't broken the 30 minute barrier since November 27th. He's in a very favorable matchup vs. Cleveland tonight, who will be missing their starting C Tristan Thompson for a few weeks. The Cavs had been 1st vs. the C position the last 5 games but that was with Thompson and against C that include Kevin Looney, Jarrett Allen, Willie Cauley-Stein, Thomas Bryant, and Brook Lopez. Overall, Cleveland is 30th vs. the C and Kanter should have a big night vs. Larry Nance and Co.
Bam Adebayo (DK: $6,100 FD: $6,500 Y!: $20)
Bam Adebayo continues to be a must-play at the C position for the value that sites keep giving us despite Hassan Whiteside's absence. Adebayo has two 40+ point fantasy nights in his last three games. He's in a tough spot vs. Rudy Gobert and the Jazz (5th vs. C) but Whiteside did have 23 points and 20 boards vs. Utah 10 days ago. The Jazz have allowed 30+ to three straight centers but Adebayo should go for a 40+ point night on Wednesday.
Those are the plays for today. The NBA has granted us an extra matchup for Thursday to make it a 4-game night instead of the dreaded tripod. This is Carl Taylor wrapping up a Wednesday edition of the LineStar Double Dribble. Catch me on Twitter (@dailydogsports) the rest of the day trying to dig up the best underdog sports bets and doing some bad Photoshop while I'm at it.
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