- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA Plays 12/13 | One Man's 3rd Stringer is Another's Humdinger
Top NBA Plays 12/13 | One Man's 3rd Stringer is Another's Humdinger
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the LineStar Daily Dribble. We're hoping everybody is enjoying the national holiday that is Taylor Swift's birthday. She must've been bad this year because the NBA only gave us four games for tonight. That being said, that's actually one more than usual on Thursdays, so maybe it's a birthday miracle?
On this day in NBA history in 1983, Detroit beat Denver 186-184 in 3OT's. It set records for most points scored in a game by one team and combined (370). Talk about a nice contest to DFS stack in. Also, I'm pretty sure my dad bet the 'under' in that game. On to today's newsletter:
Tonight's Four
The game of the night is James Harden and the Houston Rockets hosting LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. LA has turned things up on both ends of the court lately, yet are +5.5 underdogs at the Toyota Center. James definitely has the better supporting cast in this one.
The Los Angeles Clippers have hit a little bit of a skid, losing 4 of their last 6. On Thursday, LA plays their third game in four nights yet are still just +2.5 underdogs at the San Antonio Spurs who have won three in a row. Spurs seems like an easy play (especially in their 4th consecutive home game) but you know what that means.
There are some bad teams in action Thursday too, an example of which is the Chicago Bulls traveling to take on the Orlando Magic (-5). It was thought the Bulls would get a boost with the return of Bobby Portis and Kris Dunn last game but they were outscored 63-33 in the 2nd half by the Sacramento Kings.
The Phoenix Suns could definitely classify as a 'bad' team. The Suns losing streak has reached 10 games but they are 'only' +7 underdogs when hosting the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. The Mavs are on a B2B – so are you saying there's a chance for the Suns? No.
Guards
De'Anthony Melton (DK: $4,900 FD: $6,000 Y! $14 )
De'Anthony Melton has a very favorable matchup vs. a Dallas team playing on a B2B. There should be plenty of minutes available for the Suns PG as the team is without Devin Booker and could also be missing Jamal Crawford (knee) and Troy Daniels (undisclosed) in the backcourt. Backup Elie Okobo was sent to the G League which leaves just Melton and Jawuan Evans to run the point. Melton has 16 FG attempts in each of the last two games and has posted 33fp and 38fp. Dallas is not only fatigued, they also give up 34.2 fppg to PG starters.
Derrick White (DK: $3,800 FD: $4,600 Y! $10 )
A lot of people will be chasing Bryn Forbes in the San Antonio backcourt after he posted 24 points and 11 rebounds last time out vs. the Suns. Derrick White is a less expensive (and less owned) option for the Spurs who has potential vs. the Clippers 24th ranked defense vs. the SG. In the last five games, LA has allowed a 71fp night to Jrue Holiday and allowed Mikal Bridges to score 10 above his projection and Kyle Lowery +13. White is projected for 17.74 tonight and although his ceiling is low, he provides good value in cash games.
Eric Gordon (DK: $4,800 FD: $5,100 Y! $16 )
Eric Gordon is a strong play tonight as he moves into the starting lineup for the injured James Ennis. Gordon logged 38 minutes last time out but you'd like to see his production go up. He's struggled in December, unable to break the 15 point barrier in any of the five games. There is potential there though. Gordon dropped 26 points vs. the Spurs on 11/30, 36 vs. Washington on 11/26, and 28 vs. Cleveland on 11/24. The Lakers have been solid vs. the SF position lately (18th in last five games) but did allow a 46.25 night to Rudy Gay on December 5th.
Forwards
Kyle Kuzma (DK: $7,600 FD: 7,900$ Y! $31 )
Kyle Kuzma has been a must play lately in Brandon Ingram's absence. Unfortunately, his price is starting to reflect that but with the production that Kuzma returns there's almost no risk in rostering him. He had 33 points and 7 rebounds last time out, marking the 5th straight 20+ point and 5 rebound night. Kuzma has 41+ fp in each of the last five games and is a solid bet to continue that trend vs. Houston. The Rockets rank 20th vs. the SF in the last five games and have allowed 30+ point fantasy nights to Joe Ingles and Robert Covington over that span. Michael Beasley is also doubtful Thursday, which should leave plenty of minutes available for Kuzma even though he's logged 38+ in 3 of 4.
Rudy Gay (DK: $6,200 FD: $6,400 Y! $24 )
$6,200 for Rudy Gay on DraftKings isn't exorbitantly high considering his ceiling. Over the past 4 games, Gay has two 46+ fantasy nights. He's got a solid matchup with a Clippers team that went to OT with the Suns and lost by 24 to the Raptors in the last four days. LA did have a night of rest, which should keep the game a bit closer and keep Gay in the lineup. Gay had 19 points and 6 rebounds in 24 minutes vs. LA a month ago. The Clippers gave up a 54.5 point fantasy night to Julius Randle on December 3rd and James Johnson more than doubled his projection vs. LA on December 8th.
Dorian Finney-Smith (DK: $3,700 FD: $4,400 Y! $10 )
Dorian Finney Smith is a very intriguing play on Thursday - his initials are DFS for crying out loud. Dallas is on a B2B and Finney-Smith logged 26 minutes last night. That's a solid amount, not over usage but it shows he's an integral part of the rotation. Harrison Barnes had a solid night last night for the Mavericks (25 points) but he also put in 31 minutes. Wesley Matthews is Q Thursday with a shoulder issue, so it looks like the only threat to Finney-Smith's playing time might be a returning Dirk Nowitzki. The Suns give up a lot of points to everybody – but SF reserves especially as they are 27th over the last 5 games. Portland reserves had 34.75 fp vs. Phoenix December 6th and Sacramento 23.75 the game before that. Looking for a 30+ point DFS night from D.F. -S.
Centers
Nikola Vucevic (DK: $8,900 FD: $8,800 Y! $36 )
The Chicago Bulls haven't exactly been uplifting lately. They lost by nearly 60 to Boston on Saturday and followed that up with a 19 point defeat to the Kings despite having an 11 point lead at the half. Willie Cauley-Stein had 16 rebounds for Sacramento in that last game, which bodes well for Orlando's Nikola Vucevic tonight. The spread in this game seems on kind of the low side (ORL -5.5) so a close game ('trap spread') should mean plenty of court time for the Magic C. Vucevic's minutes were limited to 25 last time out vs. the Mavs and he still grabbed 16 boards and scored 8 points. He had posted double-doubles in 6 of 7 games prior and tonight is up against a Bulls' front court that is 29th overall in opposing C points allowed. Vucevic is the 3rd highest priced player overall but his production seems almost inevitable.
Jakob Poeltl (DK: $4,100 FD: $4,100 Y! $10 )
It's time to get back on the Po-Boy train, as Jakob Poeltl once again has potential for solid ROI, especially in a 4-game docket. He's blown through his ceiling with 32 fp in 2 of his last five and even put up a solid 22 last time out vs. Phoenix. Usage has risen a bit with 21.1 mins in 3 games and we could see that expand if the Spurs run down a tired Clippers team like they should. The Suns' Richaun Holmes had 19 points and 7 rebounds playing C minutes in reserve vs. the Clippers Monday and Jonas Valanciunas had 16 and 5 as a backup for the Raptors on Tuesday.
Dwight Powell (DK: $3,800 FD: $3,800 Y! $10 )
Big man Deandre Jordan logged 33 minutes for Dallas last night and although his production was solid (11 points, 11 rebounds) expect that to wane in a B2B situation. Jordan's fantasy production drops 28.54% with 0 days rest which opens up minutes and opportunity for Dwight Powell. Granted, Powell is in a tough spot in a B2B as well (-20.61%) but he should be relatively fresh after playing just 14 minutes on Wednesday. When Dallas played in a B2B on December 5th, Powell logged 23 minutes and responded with 12 points and 10 rebounds. He's got two other 21 point nights in December and is worth a play on this short stack of games.
Today's schedule is a lot like the deep dish pizza flavored Lay's chips. It's interesting, but not great, but yet not completely horrible either. The Bulls and Suns being in action might be a buzzkill to the 'normal' NBA watcher but for DFS purposes, these teams (or the teams who are playing against them) can be a cash cow. We'll check back tomorrow and see how it went as we prepare for an almost perfect 9-game schedule on Friday. Check me out on Twitter (Carl Taylor @dailydogsports) as I live tweet the completion of my Taylor Swift hair doll.
Freeroll
Congratulations to the winners of yesterday’s freeroll contest!
1st Place: dgolds1 342
2nd Place: kyle4cash710 326.75
3rd Place: tvand2514 324.5
DM us on Twitter with your winning lineup to claim your prize!