Top NBA Plays 12/14 | Bowing Out to the Blow Out

There are 9 games on the NBA schedule to wrap up this week of the LineStar Daily Dribble. Three of those contests have double-digit spreads, which always raises a conundrum for DFS players. How do you approach the blowout game? Do you take the stars because they're the ones who are going to get the points to cover that huge spread? Do you take bench players because they're going to be the ones getting all the minutes in the 2nd half? Do you take the losing team that is going to get blown out because they'll get 'free' buckets? Do you ignore the spread altogether?

On December 14th in 1962, Wilt Chamberlain scored 63 points for the Philadelphia Warriors and Elgin Baylor chipped in 50 against him for the Los Angeles Lakers. Let's find a matchup that DFS plentiful when we break down tonight's docket:

Games That Stand Out Tonight

The perceived blowouts for Friday night include the Boston Celtics (-12.5) hosting the Atlanta Hawks, the Charlotte Hornets (-10.5) hosting the New York Knicks, and the Milwaukee Bucks (-10) traveling to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Do these increase or decrease the value of Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo?

The Golden State Warriors travel to take on the Sacramento Kings but oddsmakers are calling this one a little closer to the vest, making the Dubs' 7.5 point road favorites. Kevin Durant ($10,300) had 44 points and 13 boards vs. the Kings on November 24th.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are -1.5 favorites on the road vs. an underrated Denver Nuggets team that is 10-3 at home. Dennis Schroder ($5,600) is finding a niche within this OKC offense averaging 23.5 ppg the last two.

Victor Oladipo ($8,400) is back in the lineup for the 2nd straight game as the Indiana Pacers (+4.5) are getting a bunch at the Philadelphia 76ers. Oladipo had 36/6/7 when the teams met up last November.

The Brooklyn Nets have gone just 4-10 at home but are actually -1.5 favorites vs. the Washington Wizards on Friday.

On paper, the Friday slate looked kind of lackluster but once you get into it there should be some very good DFS opportunities as we head into the weekend.

Guards

Dennis Schroder (DK: $5,600 FD: $6,100 Y! $21 )

Dennis Schroder is seeing a decent amount of court time for OKC, logging 28+ minutes in 5 of the last 8. He's had 30+ fantasy point nights in 5 of the last 6. The OKC G has shot 9/17 and 9/18 his last two games, good for a 23.5 ppg average. With Schroder seeing SG time with both the starters and reserves, his matchup with Denver becomes appealing as the Nuggets have allowed some big games to bench guards recently.

Terry Rozier (DK: $4,600 FD: $4,200 Y! $16 )

Terry Rozier is in that potential blowout spot but there's good value on the Boston backup for a number of reasons. First off, the Celtics played in an OT game on Wednesday in which Kyrie Irving (40:09) and Marcus Smart (39:12) logged a ton of minutes. Boston also has to travel to Detroit for a B2B tomorrow night, so the contest vs. Atlanta presents a winnable 'bridge' matchup in which Rozier can get a lot of action. Finally, both Gordon Hayward and Jaylen Brown are iffy to go tonight with illness. Rozier already has three 32+ fantasy point nights in his last four games. Versus Atlanta, Rozier is also averaging 36.83 fppg the last three, so he is a very solid roster for the value.

A lot of green tonight for Rozier vs. Atlanta

Spencer Dinwiddie (DK: $6,500 FD: $6,600 Y! $20 )

Spencer Dinwiddie is the proud owner of a 3-year $34 million extension and right away his price across the board is reflective of that. You're paying a lot for essentially a reserve but you can't argue with Dinwiddie's production night in and night out. Not only that, Allen Crabbe is questionable Friday with a knee injury, which could open up even more opportunity for the Nets bench. Dinwiddie has already logged 28+ minutes in seven straight games and is coming off a 39 point (51 fp) effort vs. Philadelphia. Brooklyn has actually won three games in a row and is favored back home vs. Washington.

On paper it's Washington with the DFS edge but Dinwiddie is the play here.

Forwards

Kevin Knox (DK: $4,800 FD: $5,600 Y! $13 )

Could we be seeing the breakout of Kevin Knox finally? The Knicks are 10 point 'dogs at Charlotte on Friday so there's no reason for coach David Fizdale to not keep giving the rookie some playing time. In the last two games Knox has received two of his top three court times of the season (41:14, 32:14) and has responded with a 50 point and 34 point fantasy night. On Sunday against these Hornets, he went off for 26 points and 15 boards, so he obviously likes the matchup. That being said, is this play too easy; meaning we're going to get burned?

Kyle Anderson (DK: $4,200 FD: $5,400 Y! $19 )

It takes some guts to play Kyle Anderson tonight, mostly because he's had just one game scoring in double figures in his last 7. That being said, he did have a 53 point fantasy night on December 7th (19 points, 11 boards, 4 assists, 3 blocks) and has a favorable matchup vs. the Heat. Miami is 30th vs. the SF, giving up 32 fppg. The Memphis F also has two double digit rebound games in his last four and Miami gives up nearly 6 boards a game to SF starters. Anderson has a few other factors on his side too. First off, Memphis probably won't get much production from Jaren Jackson tonight, as his performance drops -107% on game one of a B2B compared to 1+ days rest. Mike Conley is also a GTD as he's nursing a sore hamstring which could open up more scoring opps for Anderson.

Thaddeus Young (DK: $5,700 FD: $6,200 Y! $14 )

Rostering Thaddeus Young might seem a bit like chasing after he bounced for 25 points and 11 boards in the Pacers win over Milwaukee. The truth is, he should be another solid play tonight especially with the value on DraftKings. Indiana plays a tired Philadelphia team tonight that saw its front court of Joel Embiid (38:03), Furkan Korkmaz (34:40), and Wilson Chandler (32:35) all playing significant minutes in a tough game vs. Brooklyn Wednesday. Overall, the Sixers are solid vs. the PF (2nd) but they did allow a 31 point, 12 rebound night to Blake Griffin last Friday. Young is also traveling to Philly where he began his career and played for 7 years. Victor Oladipo's return didn't downgrade Young's production last game and maybe he actually improves with 'Dipo back?

Some people would call Young a risk tonight but the potential is there.

Centers

Serge Ibaka (DK: $6,300 FD: $6,800 Y! $23 )

Serge Ibaka might be the play of the night, as he's taking on a Portland team that is 28th vs. both the C and PF this season. The Trail Blazers front line is definitely an issue. Over the last 5 games, DeAndre Jordan has a 17 rebound night against Portland and Marc Gasol put up 37.75 points compared to his 25 average. Ibaka is zoned in right now for a Toronto team that is 12-3 on the road. The big man has three-straight 44+ point fantasy nights on the heels of 22+ point scoring nights in each. If Kawhi Leonard ends up sitting tonight Ibaka's value climbs even more.

Ibaka's performance has definitely trended upwards lately.

Willie Cauley-Stein (DK: $6,400 FD: $7,000 Y! $22 )

For $700 more than teammate Marvin Bagley, Willie Cauley-Stein seems like much more of a sure thing vs. Golden State. First off, the Warriors are giving up a ton of points to opposing centers lately (27th) including 43 point nights to Serge Ibaka and Tristan Thompson and 50+ to Karl-Anthony Towns. Cauley-Stein has strung together a couple solid fantasy games lately, going for 33+ in three straight. The Kings C has scored in double figures in six of the last 7 and has 8+ rebounds in 5 of those games. A double-double is nearly guaranteed if Cauley-Stein can get upwards of 28 minutes.

Brook Lopez (DK: $4,800 FD: $5,400 Y! $13 )

Even with so many scoring options on their roster, Brook Lopez actually isn't a bad play tonight for Milwaukee. He's up against a Cleveland team that is in total disarray in their front court with both Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love out with foot injuries. Lopez is putting up good numbers with a dozen or more points in 7 of 8. He's got 4+ rebounds in the same amount of games and has good value since the Cavs are somehow 2nd vs. opposing centers overall. These two teams met up Monday and Lopez went for a solid 12 and 4 (25 fp) in only 22 minutes thanks to the 18 point Bucks win. They do it up again tonight in Cleveland, so maybe it will be a bit closer to give Lopez more court time.

That's one player in each of the 9 Friday games, so every contest on tonight's schedule can give you some rooting interest. It's going to be another great weekend of sports, so feel free to fade my sports betting picks on Twitter (Carl Taylor @dailydogsports) as we get ready to do it up again on Monday with an 8-game NBA card. Monday marks just a week until Christmas Eve and it's crunch time to get some winnings in, so we're not stuck with jelly-of-the-month club memberships for all our friends and family....

...even though it is the gift that keeps on giving, Clark.

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