Top NBA Plays 12/17 | Points at a Premium on Paper

How much do you take betting totals into account when creating your DFS lineups? More often than not, oddsmakers are pretty in tune with the number, which definitely trims this 6-game slate. Sacramento @ Charlotte (O/U 207), Orlando @ Utah (O/U 209), and LA Lakers @ Indiana ( 2 of top 6 defenses) look like games to avoid - on paper.

Chalk is going to be on Brooklyn @ New Orleans tonight (O/U 231) and possibly the Suns on a back-to-back visiting the Clippers. Now's the time to decide whether to go with the flow - or invoke a ๐Ÿ‘ดPhil Collins Game ๐Ÿ‘ดand go 'against all odds.'

Tonight's DFS Headlines

Kings @ Hornets

It's the Fox Game, as Sacramento's De'Aaron Fox is set to return after missing the last month with an ankle injury. It's a good matchup vs. Charlotte's #25 ranked defense, but it will be interesting to see if the Kings try to push any kind of tempo after ranking 29th in pace.

Lakers @ Pacers

The Lakers could be in a look-ahead game with a contest coming Thursday vs. the Bucks. LAL already looked sluggish in a 101-96 win over the Hawks on Sunday.

Hawks @ Knicks

Is Trae Young ($9.9k) the guy to build around at Madison Square Garden tonight? He averaged just 14.5 ppg in The Mecca last season in two games.

Nets @ Pelicans

Brooklyn is looking like a great team to target here, as New Orleans has allowed 120+ points in 4 of their last 6. Orlando had a season high 130 vs. the Pelicans Sunday with 8 players tallying double figures.

Magic @ Jazz

It's two bottom 10 teams in pace (Orlando being worst in the league) and the #11 and #12 defenses in the league. Things would point to a low scoring game here and the betting total reflects that with an O/U of just 206.5.

Suns @ Clippers

The Suns should be wiped out after 110-111 loss at home to Portland last night. Kelly Oubre, Jr. logged 36 and Ricky Rubio had a 10/11/4 triple - double but in 34 minutes. Phoenix does get Deandre Ayton back though, now that his 25 game suspension is up .

Guards

Trae Young DK $9.9k | FD $10k

Trae Young is a great centerpiece tonight as he tries to build on past transgressions at Madison Square Garden. He had a 5-9 shooting night as well as 5-14 in two games in NYC last season. Ownership should be down on Young as a whole considering the Knicks were one of the teams he struggled the most with in his rookie year, averaging just 15.9 ppg in 4 matchups. Kevin Huerter is likely out tonight with a shoulder injury and Jabari Parker is playing through a sprained ankle for the Hawks. ๐ŸŽBig Apple Game๐ŸŽ.

Is 5X-6X that far out of the realm of possibilities?

Garrett Temple DK $4.8k | FD $5k

When the Nets and Pelicans met up in early November they combined for 260 points in a 135-125 Brooklyn win. Kyrie Irving and Caris Levert combined for 62 points in that game, so there is plenty of scoring available with those two players sidelined. Garrett Temple should be in line for a step up game with two top 10 teams in pace in action. Temple had 13 points and 4 assists in the first meeting but that was with just 25 minutes of court time. He's logged 31 plus in 8 of the last 10 and even took 14 three-pointers Saturday at Toronto. Temple had 27 points and nearly broke the 40 fp barrier the last time Brooklyn played an up-paced team at Atlanta 13 days ago.

Brooklyn and New Orleans don't get a pace 'boost' but only because they both run so high anyway.

Elfrid Payton DK $5.2k | FD $5.5k

As the great LineStar user @jpitz noted, it's time to get the "Elf off the Shelf" and get Elfrid Payton in some lineups tonight. New York has the best pace up tick of the night against Atlanta and Payton is playing his way into the good graces of new Knicks coach Mike Miller. Payton has 13+ fga in three straight and also dished out 11 assists while grabbing 7 rebounds Sunday in Denver. Get this man out of the box.

Payton's uptick should continue vs. Atlanta tonight

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes  / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Jrue Holiday ($7.7k) seems priced low after taking 18+ shots in 6 of 8 games in December and with New Orleans missing Redick in an up-tempo game vs. Brooklyn. Ricky Rubio ($7.6k) posted his second straight 50+ fp game last night vs. Portland but he's on the B2B and against the Clippers' top 7 defense. Gotta take a look at Spencer Dinwiddie ($7.5k) against New Orleans after posting 40+ fp in 7 of the last 8.

Forwards

Brandon Ingram DK $8.1k | FD $8.4k

Brandon Ingram has gone for 40+ fp in four straight games but it's time for 50+ tonight vs. Brooklyn in a game with a betting total of 231. JJ Redick (groin) and his 15+ shot attempts the last three games will not be in the lineup for New Orleans. That gives even more shot attempts to Brandon Ingram as the Pelicans try to stop a 12-game losing skid in their last home game before heading out for a road trip through Christmas. Brooklyn has done a good job of shutting down opposing SFs lately and the Pelicans are on the 1st leg of a back-to-back which should shift ownership numbers our way.

The Nets D has been solid vs. the SF as of late, but haven't faced the talent or usage of Ingram either.

Montrezl Harrell DK $6.9k | FD $8k

It's a great time to attack the Phoenix front court as they are on a back-to-back while also trying to integrate Deandre Ayton back into the lineup after a 25-game absence. Ayton will surely help the Suns improve on their #26th ranked defense vs. the C position, but he can't play all the minutes. Montrezl Harrell should see action at both PF and C. The Clippers big man has been very hit and miss in blowouts with 48 and 41 fp in 20+ point wins to start the month but just 28 and 24 fp the last two. The good news is that the big production nights in landslide wins were at home, where the Clippers are tonight as -12.5 favorites.

Harrell has no qualms about playing Phoenix

Marvin Bagley III DK $5.5k | FD $6.5k

We are all still waiting on the monster "I'm Back" game from Marvin Bagley who has put up 20, 22, and 27 fp since his return from a thumb injury. Steady improvement is positive, as is the fact he's taken 13,10, and 13 shots in the three of those games while grabbing 6+ boards in each. Sacramento will likely return to full strength tonight as De'Aaron Fox returns to run the show, hopefully giving the Kings a boost to their 29th rated pace. Sacramento is at Charlotte, a team that is 27th in the NBA giving up over 50 fp/48 to the PF position. Throw in the fact that P.J. Washington is out for the Hornets, which pushes Cody Zeller into the starting PF spot, and Bagley could indeed be officially 'back' tonight.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Julius Randle ($7k) has a great chance for 7X after putting up 49 and 44 fp in 2 of the last 3 and with a tilt against Atlanta's up beat tempo and 26th ranked defense vs. the PF. Marcus Morris ($6.2k) is in the same spot and showed a 10X ceiling with 63 fp last week vs. Golden State.

Center

DeAndre Jordan DK $5.4k | FD $5.1k

DeAndre Jordan has quietly been putting up some huge rebounding numbers lately with 11, 13, and 14 in the last three while not logging more than 22 minutes in any of those games. The Nets are matched up with the Pelicans, a team that is 20th in offensive rebounds and 24th in defensive boards. Jordan also has 9 field goal attempts in each of the last two games where, in this instance, scoring is a peripheral stat.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Hard not to like Anthony Davis ($10.5k) as a cornerstone tonight (if he plays) after 50+ fp in 4 of the last 5 games. JaVale McGee ($3.9k) and/or Dwight Howard ($4k) could even see value vs. the Pacers' #29 ranked defense vs. the C position - especially if Davis rests.

You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.

Freeroll

The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:

1st Place: Your Choice: One month LineStar premium membership, a LineStar T-Shirt or $10 via PayPal.

Bonus: If you place 1st in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you can choose 2 prizes.

Please Note: While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as youโ€™d like, you can only win a prize 1 time.

Winners: DM us on Twitter with a screenshot of your win to claim your prize.

๐Ÿ”ฅ SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play

Today's SuperDraft multiplier must-play is Spencer Dinwiddie. Has scored 24+ real points in 7 of the last 8 and has a matchup with New Orleans' #3 worst defense tonight.

๐Ÿšจ Bonus: Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.