- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA Plays 12/18 | A Schedule Only a DFS Player Could Love
Top NBA Plays 12/18 | A Schedule Only a DFS Player Could Love
As the old saying goes, we should never judge a book by its cover. But at first glance, today's NBA slate looks u-g-l-y. As what usually happens though, once you start breaking down the games, they are actually kind of interesting - at least from a daily fantasy perspective. There's only four games on the docket and it's looking like LeBron James and a lot of second - and third - tier guys that are going to fill out your lineup. Expect to pay premium prices for lower valued players tonight - almost like you were GM of the Bulls.
Today's celebrity birthday is the Charlotte Bobcats - who are the Hornets now. In 2002 they gained approval from the NBA board of governor's to become an expansion franchise. Ironically, December 18th is also the day in 2017 when the Lakers retired Kobe's #8 and #24 jerseys - an original draft pick of the Hornets - who are actually the Pelicans now. This is all too confusing, let's get to the plays:
Tuesday's Four Game Card:
Oddsmakers are going full on Grinch-mode and trying to steal Christmas present money by making the Los Angeles Lakers just -2 favorites at the Brooklyn Nets. LeBron James is the costliest player on Tuesday's list ($10,600) but the Nets might have a chance in this one as they've inexplicably rattled off five straight wins and the Lakers play their fourth consecutive road game.
The Washington Wizards just beat those Lakers on Sunday and they've got reinforcements on the way as Trevor Ariza ($4,600) could make his team debut. The Wiz are in a very winnable position vs. the Atlanta Hawks in a game that sees an O/U of a whopping 235.
Victor Oladipo ($9,100) is the 4th highest priced player overall on Tuesday but how much PT is he going to see as the Indiana Pacers are -12.5 favorites over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Does somebody like Domantas Sabonis ($6,900) to have a huge night with an increase in 'blowout minutes?'
The Denver Nuggets have beaten Memphis, Oklahoma City, and Toronto in their last three contests but must avoid a letdown vs. a Dallas Mavericks team that is just 2-10 on the road. The Mavs even lost to Phoenix their last away contest, so Denver players such as Nikola Jokic ($9,700) are going to be in high demand.
Guards
Matthew Dellavedova (DK: $4,100 FD: $4,300 Y! $10 )
We could see a lot of "peanut butter Delly time" tonight as the Cleveland guard see a major minutes increase vs. Indiana. The Pacers are favored by a baker's dozen and Matthew Dellavedova has seen a nice minutes increase regardless. He's logged 21, 26, and 22 minutes in the last three games since being acquired by Milwaukee. Dellavedova has scored in double figures in each game since coming back to the Cavs and had 30 fp in just 22 minutes last game. Indiana travels to Toronto tomorrow so they could (should?) be resting starters for that crucial Eastern Conference matchup.
Trae Young (DK: $6,400 FD: $6,900 Y! $18 )
At the very least, Trae Young is up against Washington's #28 ranked offense vs. the PG on Tuesday. Looking deeper into this game, Young could see very favorable matchups as Washington looks ahead to a game with Houston on Wednesday. The Wizards are 29th vs. the PG over the past 5 days and over that span have allowed 45fp to Collin Sexton, 48 to Darren Collison, and 54 to Kyrie Irving. Atlanta has a chance in this game being underdogs by what seems like a low +2.5 points. Young has a very high ceiling as he went for 24 three games ago against Dallas and has multiple 10 assist games over his last three.
Lonzo Ball (DK: $6,500 FD: $6,800 Y! $22 )
This play could be chasing a bit as Lonzo Ball had a triple double with 16-10-10 Saturday vs. Charlotte. The Lakers also play their 3rd game in four nights vs. Brooklyn, which is a major reason the Nets are only +2 home 'dogs. Ball has scored 30+ fp in 3 of the last 4 and is getting minutes with four straight games of 34+ on the court. He's got a favorable matchup with the Nets 24th ranked defense vs. the PG. Ben Simmons went for 50+, John Wall 40+, and Trae Young 30+ vs. Brooklyn the last three games.
Forwards
Jeff Green (DK: $4,800 FD: $5,300 Y! $10 )
Jeff Green is a trending player across the NBA fantasy landscape today for a couple reasons. First off, Otto Porter is out vs. Atlanta tonight, which was going to be opening up more minutes for Green. News then broke that Trevor Ariza would be making his Washington debut. A lot of people subsequently backed off Green which could make him a great contrarian play tonight. The Hawks are 24th in opposing PF scoring and how much is Ariza really going to play on leg one of a B2B? Green had a 44 fp night vs. the Celtics and went for 34 last time out vs. the Lakers.
Sam Dekker (DK: $3,800 FD: $4,400 Y! $18 )
With a four game slate there's going to be some stacks and for the value you can't go wrong with another Wizards forward in Sam Dekker. He scored 20 points in 21 minutes last game and also had 5 boards and 4 assists. Dekker has only played in four games this season because of an ankle injury and his usage last game was a positive sign that he's healthy. Dekker had 15 field goal attempts vs. the Lakers so he seems very comfortable with his role in this offense. Washington is a big question mark tonight but in the terms of Dekker's production, that actually helps regarding DFS.
Harrison Barnes (DK: $5,400 FD: $5,600 Y! $18 )
If Harrison Barnes ever finds his shooting stroke, he's going to be one of the most valuable DFS players out there. That's mostly because what Barnes does get is opportunity - launching 15+ fg five times in eight games in December. That includes a 28 attempt night vs. the Clippers. You can almost lock in 20-25 fantasy points from Barnes every night and he's worth a solid low-usage contrarian play on Tuesday. Dallas is up against Memphis who has held three straight power forwards to under 20 fantasy points. There's no way that Dallas can be so good at home then so horrible on the road (2-10) which is why it feels like the Mavs are an upset play this evening.
Centers
Tyson Chandler (DK: $3,700 FD: $4,200 Y! $10 )
Tyson Chandler isn't exactly an offensive threat (17 points total in six games) but he can still log decent fantasy points especially vs. Brooklyn tonight. The Nets give up 12.8 reb/game to C starters and 43.3 fppg total. There's great value on Chandler on DraftKings with the potential to have one of those 14 rebound nights like he did 10 days ago vs. the Grizzlies. Enes Kanter (14 rebounds), Joel Embiid (17), and Dewayne Dedmon (12) have destroyed the boards from the C position vs. Brooklyn the last 5 games. The Lakers are deep, but also a bit fatigued, which means anybody could step up in this game.
Nikola Jokic (DK: $9,700 FD: $11,100 Y! $44 )
If you're going to spend tonight, one of the safest returns on investment has to be Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. He's gone for 24+ points in four straight games but is racking up the fantasy scoreboard with seven straight games of 8+ rebounds and 7+ assists in 6 of the last 9. Jokic has scored at least 44 fp in 7 straight games. He doesn't have the best matchup vs. Dallas' 6th ranked defense vs. the center but Jokic has been transcending rankings lately.
DeAndre Jordan (DK: $6,800 FD: $7,000 Y! $25 )
DeAndre Jordan has a solid matchup vs. a depleted Denver front court that sees Paul Millsap out tonight and Juancho Hernangomez questionable with an abdominal injury. The Nuggets are usually 6th in the NBA in rebounds but were outboarded 51-44 by Toronto last game. Jordan could have another 23 rebound night like he did last game up against a thin Nuggets' lineup. Jordan has been dominating the boards with 15+ in three of five games but he's also adding buckets, with three double-digit scoring outputs over that span.
DFS success is all about surviving the week. We've gotten through the appetizers of a 4-game schedule and get to feast on a massive 12-gamer tomorrow. Options may be limited tonight but that doesn't mean there aren't some hidden gems. Today's strategy is find the solid players with decent pricing and a guaranteed floor then sprinkle them with some risks. Will it work? Find out tonight.
Freeroll
Congratulations to the winners of yesterday’s freeroll contest!
1st Place: dashing, 304
2nd Place: FTSB, 291.75
3rd Place: swattzilla, 280
DM us on Twitter with your winning lineup to claim your prize!