Top NBA Plays 12/18 | Trends Forever, Always True and True...?

The Pelicans and Nets combined for 209 points on Tuesday - and that was just because they went to overtime. New Orleans has the 3rd worst defense in the league and both teams have a top 10 pace while the betting total was 230. Everybody was thinking points are going to be handed out like Christmas hams in this one, but alas, no go.

Are games like that frustrating? 100% yes. Are they worth throwing out all your research methods, statistical analysis, and great projections from the LineStar app? Of course not. After all, last night Hawks @ Knicks combined for a boatload of points as expected while Lakers @ Pacers was a defensive struggle as projected. Not every game is going to go our way, but let's try to find as many that do. What a perfect rebound with a whopper of a 9-gamer for Wednesday.

Tonight's DFS Headlines

Bulls @ Wizards

The Bulls should be a big target in this one as the Wizards already had the worst defense in the league and now have lost Rui Hachimura to the injury list, joining Moe Wagner and Thomas Bryant out of Washington's front court.

Hornets @ Cavs

Cleveland can take a breath of fresh air after having matchups with Philadelphia, Boston, Houston, San Antonio, Milwaukee, and Toronto over their last 6. The Cavs should be battle tested as they welcome a Charlotte team on 0 days rest to Quicken Loans Arena on Wednesday.

Heat @ 76ers

It's a ๐ŸšจRevenge Game๐Ÿšจ but moreso for the 76ers instead of Jimmy Butler who returns to likely another boo-fest in Philadelphia tonight. Fans weren't enamored with Butler in his return on November 23rd. As a result, the Heat G had just 11 points on 4-13 shooting.

Raptors @ Pistons

Do Blake Griffin (knee) and Andre Drummond (eye) play? The Pistons allowed Washington to shoot 55% from the field without their big man duo on Monday.

Grizzlies @ Thunder

Memphis just put up 118 points vs. a very good Miami defense. Can they continue that trend vs. OKC's slow pace and top 13 defenders? Memphis needs a Thunder buddy because they are scared of this storm, losing 9 of the last 10 to OKC.

Pelicans @ Timberwolves

New Orleans let us down in what was supposed to be a high scoring game vs. Brooklyn on Tuesday. No way that continues vs. the T' Wolves #1 pace in the league does it? Can Minnesota take advantage of a New Orleans team not only on the back-to-back, but also having to play an OT game last night?

Magic @ Nuggets

Orlando and Denver could be higher scoring than the 203 betting total because the Magic's solid defense is also on 0 days rest. Then again, the teams played to a 91-87 Nuggets win in early November.

Celtics @ Mavericks

If Dallas can beat Milwaukee and Boston in back-to-back games, people may start talking that the Mavs are better off without Luka Doncic. Kristaps Porzingis went for 26/12 in the first game without the MVP candidate. Giannis Antetokounmpo also went for 48/14 vs. the Mavs defense on Monday though.

Warriors @ Trail Blazers

There's no love lost between the Warriors and Trail Blazers. Portland was swept out of the Western Conference finals by Golden State last season and the Warriors have already toppled the Blazers once this year in early November. We should see some points in this one.

Guards

Jordan Clarkson DK $4.2k | FD $4.5k

Jordan Clarkson has had a couple down nights with just 23 and 15 fp the last two. Those performances did come in a) two Cleveland blowout losses b) on the road and c) against 2 of the top 4 teams in defensive efficiency in Milwaukee and Toronto. Clarkson is back home tonight and facing a Charlotte team that is not only way down there at 24th in defensive efficiency, but also on the second leg of a back-to-back. Clarkson hoisted 14+ shots including 8+ three-pointers in each of the three games prior to the last two, and should get back to that type of usage tonight.

A return to 30+ for Clarkson here?

Norman Powell DK $6.4k | FD $5.9k

Norman Powell is hot right now, shooting 22-30 his last two games including 9-15 from beyond the arc. Those two games were at home so this is more of a 'pay to see it' type play as the Raptors go on the road tonight. It may not be about the where for Powell's success but more the who - as in he's putting up these numbers because Fred VanVleet is out of the lineup for Toronto. The Pistons gave up nearly 60 fp to Bradley Beal on Monday at the SG position so it's another good spot for Powell.

Andrew Wiggins DK $7.6k | FD $7.8k

Andrew Wiggins is worth the price tonight almost solely for the fact that the Timberwolves are hosting New Orleans' 3rd worst defense to go along with their 4th highest pace. With Minnesota being tops in the league in possessions per game, this one has the potential to be a ping-pong match and the betting total of 231.5 reflects that. Wiggins has taken 18+ shots in each of the last three games and his usage could skyrocket with the news that Karl-Anthony Towns is battling a knee sprain.

Wiggins had 23/10/7 in his last meeting with New Orleans in February.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes  / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Cleveland's Darius Garland ($4.4k) has 14 and 11 fga the last two and has dished out 5+ assists in three straight against quality competition. The Cavs are favorites vs. the Hornets tonight. Evan Fournier ($6k) is either a) avoid like the plague or b) a great GPP contrarian play after two down nights as well as a -56% decrease on back-to-backs.

Forwards

Lauri Markkanen DK $5.9k | FD $6.3k

It's just hard to figure out why Lauri Markkanen isn't more of a consistent DFS producer. He's played at least 32 minutes in 5 of the last 7, but has gone over 35 fp just twice over that span. If there's ever a night for a ceiling game, it's tonight vs. Washington's dead last defensive efficiency. The Wizards are missing three key front court contributors and the Bulls also have Zach Lavine (hip, illness) and Wendell Carter, Jr. (ab, tailbone) battling through injuries, which would boost the role of Markkanen if they are limited.

It's a probationary "one last chance" game for Markkanen for DFS purposes. If he can't light up Washington, he's not worth a roster spot moving forward.

Carmelo Anthony DK $6.3k | FD $6.3k

Golden State is OK vs. the PF position, allowing 42.29 DVP FP/48 and improving overall on defense, holding 7 of the last 10 opponents to 110 points or less. That being said, they did allow 44+ fp night to Julius Randle and Carmelo Anthony has gone 40+ in consecutive games. Anthony has taken 16 shots or more in 4 of the last 6 games and has shot 9-15 from three in his last three. The veteran also has 8+ rebounds in 3 of the last 4 and Golden State ranks 26th in the league in offensive rebounds/game.

Josh Richardson DK $4.9k | FD $4.7k

There's nothing really in the trends that suggests a big night for Josh Richardson, although he does have 10+ shots in each of the last three. The reason Richardson has value is because tonight is the "Jimmy Butler Game" for Philadelphia, as they welcome their former teammate / problem causer back to Wells Fargo Center. In the first meeting, the crowd was backing Richardson like his last name was Balboa and he was in the late rounds in the Soviet Union vs. Jimmy Drago. Richardson responded with an 11-15 night for 32 points against his old team and knows the banged-up Heat very well.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Pascal Siakam ($8.8k) has gone nuts in Fred VanVleet's absence, launching 20+ shots in three straight and scoring 33 and 30 real points the last two. He becomes an even better play if Drummond and/or Griffin sit for Detroit tonight. Danilo Gallinari ($6.3k) still isn't shooting the best but he managed a 42fp outing last game and gets a solid pace boost vs. Memphis tonight.

Center

Jaxson Hayes DK $4k | FD $4.7k

A lot of Pelicans players logged heavy minutes last night, with Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart going for 40+ while Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball put in over 35. In that regard, Jaxson Hayes should be relatively fresh after playing only 29 minutes in the OT loss to the Nets. Hayes potentially has a solid matchup with a Minnesota team that could be missing or have a limited Karl-Anthony Towns. The rookie has also scored in double figures in 6 of the last 7. Hayes is seeing his minutes increased to 28+ the last two, and he's responded with an 11.5 point, 7.5 rebound average.

Minnesota will give up some points all around the floor.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Hassan Whiteside ($8.5k) has a double-double in 9 of the last 10 with a high water mark of 60fp two games ago against Denver. The same with Bam Adebayo ($8k) being "matchup proof" in going for 11+ rebounds in six straight while adding 20+ real points in three of those games as well as two tilts with double-digit assists.

You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.

Freeroll

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๐Ÿ”ฅ SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play

Today's SuperDraft multiplier must-play is Zach LaVine. The Chicago G has scored 30+ real points in 3 of the last 4 and has taken a combined 46 shots the last two games. Those kinds of attempts against Washington's #30 ranked defense should produce great things.

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