Top NBA Plays 12/27 | Winding Down the Year - Hopefully with Some Scoring

You never know what you're going to get from teams in that weird lull between Christmas and New Year's. For example, the Knicks beat the Nets last night in a 94-82 game that was 50 points below the betting total. Dallas and San Antonio only scored 200 points combined on Thursday and it took Minnesota and Sacramento 2 OT just to finish in a 105-104 T'Wolves win.

Was that a holiday hangover a day after Christmas, or what we should expect until the NBA gets into more of a 'norm?'

Tonight's DFS Headlines

Cavaliers @ Celtics

The 4:00 PM EST start takes this game off the main slate for tonight. This game definitely has blowout potential though, as Boston is a -13 point favorite and has won their last three by an average of 21 points.

Thunder @ Hornets

It's a game of contradicting fatigue when the Hornets, who haven't played since last Sunday, host Oklahoma City who is coming off a 13 point home loss to Memphis last night.

76ers @ Magic

Philadelphia has to avoid a letdown game after their statement win over the Bucks on Christmas Day. Orlando held Philly under 100 points in their win at the Amway Center on November 13th.

Bucks @ Hawks

Milwaukee at Atlanta is definitely a game to target with a betting total of 237.5. One might think blowout with the Bucks angry after being down by nearly 30 points to the 76ers on Christmas and favored by 11. The Hawks have kept it within single digits in both previous losses this season though.

Pacers @ Heat

Points are expected to be at a premium when two of the league's top 10 defenses meet up in South Beach (O/U 211.5). Miami has the best home record in the league at 13-1 and Indiana could be without Malcolm Brogdon again (hamstring).

Suns @ Warriors

Golden State has the league's #2 most efficient defense over the last three games and against some tough competition, holding Houston to 104 points on Christmas. The betting total is still up there at 224 for this one however.

Guards

Damion Lee DK $5.9k | FD $5.8k

Make no mistake, everybody is going to be chasing Damion Lee after his 22 point, 15 rebound performance on Christmas. There are some reasons to think that a repeat could be on the way though. First off, Lee's 54 fp performance came against Houston, a fast paced team ranking 4th in possessions per game. Tonight's opponent (Phoenix) isn't that far off though at 7th. Golden State could very well be missing Eric Paschall (hip) and Kevon Looney (ab) meaning the minutes should be there. Warriors coach Steve Kerr also had some great things to say about Lee, including that he likes the spacing he provides and that he will continue to start.

A player like Lee who likes to run getting a pace boost? Sounds good.

The Suns haven't been great vs. the SG spot lately either.

Kevin Huerter DK $5.2k | FD $5.3k

Milwaukee ranks last in the league in opponents made three pointers per game (14.2). Part of that is the Bucks always having a big lead and their opposition needing to play catch-up, but it also has to do with a less-than-ideal perimeter defense. Opponents are shooting 36.9% from beyond the arc vs. Milwaukee, which ranks 22nd in the league. All of this bodes well not only for Trae Young ($10.8k) tonight but also Kevin Huerter as kind of a lower tier option. Huerter should be pushing 6X value tonight, as he's scored 14+ real points in 3 of the last 4, all while taking at least 7 three-pointers in each of those tilts.

Devonte' Graham DK $7.5k | FD $7.4k

Devonte' Graham and the Hornets have been off since Sunday and they really didn't even work that day in a 93-119 loss to the Celtics. OKC comes to town a night after Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Shroder all logged 32 minutes or more in a loss to Memphis last night. That should mean a big night for Graham, who had one of his best nights of December vs. Boston, logging 23 points and dishing out 10 assists. Graham has attempted at least a dozen three-pointers in consecutive games and although OKC is 2nd in opponent 3's made per game (10.3), the Thunder are also fatigued.

This is near the lowest price you're gonna ever pay on Graham.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes  / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Devin Booker isn't priced horribly at under $7k and Golden State still ranks 30th in dVp of the SG.

Trae Young ($10.8k) has gone for 61+ fp in 3 of the last 4 and has Milwaukee tonight with a betting O/U of 237.5.

Forwards

John Collins DK $7.6k | FD $8.1k

It was a triumphant return from missing 25 games due to a drug suspension for John Collins. He showed no rust in not having played since Halloween, scoring 27 points and grabbing 10 rebounds and, perhaps most importantly, playing 35 minutes. Granted that was against the Cavs, but Atlanta has a matchup with Milwaukee's #2 pace tonight and the Bucks are also giving up 47.58 fp/48 vs. the PF position.

Collins put up 50fp even while knocking out some rim rust. What can he do in game two back?

Aaron Gordon DK $6.4k | FD $6.2k

Philadelphia at Orlando isn't a traditional DFS game to target and the O/U is just 209.5 for these low pace (#20, #30), defensive oriented (#8, #13) teams. There are some reasons to think that Aaron Gordon can have a productive night for the Magic. First off, he's coming off a 45fp night vs. a good Chicago defense that came while scoring just 16 real points. Gordon grabbed 11 boards for the 2nd straight game and also had 4 assists and 3 blocks. Khris Middleton and Kristaps Porzingis have also gone for 50+ fp in the last week

Here's hoping tonight is 'hit' in the hit or miss games vs. the Philadelphia front court.

T.J. Warren DK $5.8k | FD $5.3k

T.J. Warren is first ballot 'screw-you-when -you-play-him-and when-you-don't'. But at that price and with Brogdon out for the Pacers, how do you not take the chance? Miami is a good defensive team, but it's not like they give up 0 points per game. Warren has scored 23+ real points in 2 of 3, and has taken at least 12 shots in four straight. That's a whole lot more offensive potential than other 'salary savers' under $6k.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

Jabari Parker (GTD) is just $4.6k up against his former team in the Bucks but has been limited to 15 minutes the last two. He did hit 43fp his last home game though.

We should think that Khris Middleton ($7k) comes back down to Earth after his 51fp performance on Christmas. Middleton used to be more consistent (35-40fp in six straight but has been more volatile as of late (28 floor, 51 ceiling). Probably going to be on the higher side vs. the Hawks though.

Center

Steven Adams DK $6.2k | FD $6.4k

You hate Steven Adams on the back-to-back where his production drops 16%. Charlotte is absolutely atrocious in the front court though and with Danillo Gallinari (ankle) missing tonight's game, there's not a lot of scoring on the blocks for OKC here. The duo of Terrance Ferguson and Darius Bazley put up a whopping 9 real points for the Thunder last night. The OKC bench (aside from Dennis Shroder's 20 point effort) contributed 8 in the loss to Memphis. Adams only played 27:34 vs. the Grizzlies and is averaging 18 points and 11.5 rebounds the last two tilts.

Adams is getting a lot of love despite being on the b2b.

๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ‘ Other Likes / Dislikes ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ€

It seems to be a toss-up between Bam Adebayo ($8.9k) and Domantas Sabonis ($8.1k) for the best value at the C position tonight. They play each other, but the Heat have a few more mouths to feed than the Pacers which gives Sabonis an edge - especially with Malcolm Brogdon out for Indiana.

It's a day of getting back into it after the Christmas break but the weekend is also looming. You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.

Freeroll

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Here's a link for today's freeroll contest - good luck!

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๐Ÿ”ฅ SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play

Today's SuperDraft multiplier must-play is Khris Middleton. Everybody is banking on a letdown after a 31/8/4 line on Christmas but the Bucks have Atlanta tonight with a betting total of 237.5. Antetokounmpo can't score them all - and if he does, somebody has to assist.

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