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Top NBA Plays 12/30| Finding Bucks or Avoiding Them?
We're all out to get the big bucks in this game, but sometimes when you dial in on a team like the Bucks last night it can be detrimental. Milwaukee had the points in a 144-97 win, but the blowout caused Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a season low 32 fp, and even killed production on Miami players taking the beatdown, as Goran Dragic (1fp) and Duncan Robinson (11fp) owners are acutely aware of.
So the 🕯️Blowout Strategy🕯️ is still a work in progress, which is interesting considering the Bucks and Heat meet again on the back-to-back mini-series tonight. Three other games of the six contest slate have point spreads of at least -7, so buzzer beaters might be in as much demand as people telling you they stay home NYE because it's 'amateur hour.'
Today's NBA Matchups
Grizzlies at Celtics (-9), O/U OFF, 7:30 PM ET
The Celtics defense might still sound intimidating, but they are the 4th worst in adjusted defensive rating through four games. Memphis was starting to get that tempo back, up to 3rd in pace, but that may take a hit with Ja Morant down with an ankle injury for 3-5 weeks.
Notable Injuries: Ja Morant (out), Jaren Jackson, Jr. (questionable), De'Anthony Melton (out), Kemba Walker remains out.
Hawks at Nets (-7), O/U 239 7:30 PM ET
This looks like the target game with a betting total pushing 240. Kevin Durant ($9.5k) and Kyrie Irving ($9.4k) are both expected back after sitting Monday (rest).
Notable Injuries: Danilo Gallinari (questionable), Clint Capela will play through an Achilles injury.
Bucks (-6) at Heat, O/U OFF 7:30 PM ET
Tough game to handicap here after last night's 47 point Bucks win in which they hit an NBA record 29 three-pointers. It was a 🔪Revenge Game🔪 for Milwaukee after the Heat eliminated them in the Eastern Semis last season, so we should expect a closer game in the rematch - maybe a 40 point margin.
Notable Injuries: Jimmy Butler sat out last night with ankle soreness.
Hornets at Mavericks (-8), O/U 223 8:30 PM ET
The Mavs definitely have that blowout capability as they were up 50 at the half against the Clippers on Sunday. To quote Homer Simpson, the Hornets look 'unblowupable' after their methodic 106 -104 win over Brooklyn last time out.
Notable Injuries: P.J. Washington is expected to play through an ankle injury for Charlotte, while Josh Richardson (calf) is a GTD for Dallas.
Lakers (-5.5) at Spurs, O/U 230 8:30 PM ET
It's a 🎂Birthday Game🎂 for Lebron James (and Tiger Woods), and DK is giving a present with a price back under $10k (9.8). The 2-1 Spurs do have the 5th best defensive rating in the league, but this betting total hints to some scoring tonight 🍷.
Notable Injuries: Birthday Boy is questionable with an ankle injury, but you have to think he plays.
Trail Blazers at Clippers (-3.5), O/U OFF 10:00 PM ET
The Clippers are on the back to back - on paper at least - as they had a 20 point lead by the half against the Timberwolves. This is strangely a matchup of two of the 10 slowest tempos in the league,
Notable Injuries: Kawhi Leonard has missed the last two games with a facial laceration, and both Carmelo Anthony and Nassir Little were out last contest due to NBA health restrictions.
Tonight's Point Guard / Shooting Guard Notables
Dillon Brooks DK $6.2k | FD $6.7k
It's right after the holidays and FD has de-gifted the $3.7 price on Dillon Brooks from Monday (42fp). He's still playing without Morant and Melton in the backcourt, and has put up at least 14 shots in all three games this season.
Payton Pritchard DK $3.4k | FD $3.5k
The C's get a slight pace increase tonight (supposed Memphis keeps their tempo without Morant) but are also on the back to back. Rookie Payton Pritchard has hit 9 of his last 13 shots and should see a minutes boost after Boston just finished two tough games against Indiana.
Payton Pritchard earns highest of praise from Celtics teammates 985thesportshub.com/2020/12/30/pay…
— 98.5 The Sports Hub (@985TheSportsHub)
4:45 PM • Dec 30, 2020
Rajon Rondo DK $3.7k | FD $4.7k
Not a bad Hawks debut for Rajon Rondo, who hit 5 of 8 shots and dished out 8 assists (27fp) in just 15 minutes. With a game under his belt and a visit with fast paced Brooklyn, this looks like a great spot, especially with the DK price.
Goran Dragic DK $5.5k | FD $6.9k
Who has the guts to play Goran Dragic today, or as LineStar user @Civilian dubbed him, Goran "Tragic" after 1 fp vs. Milwaukee last night? He's fresh after playing just 10 minutes, averaged 40fp the first two, and possibly no Jimmy Butler. Pull the trigger.
Chris Chiozza DK $3k | FD $3.7k
Is Chris Chiozza stepping into the Spencer Dinwiddie role - or was his 5-14 night shooting with 4 assists a result of going to OT with Memphis with no Irving or Durant? A meeting with Trae Young and Atlanta will give us those answers.
Tonight's SF / PF Notables
PJ Washington DK $5.4 k | FD $6.4k
He's playing through an ankle injury, but that DK pricing is ridiculous as P.J. Washington hasn't met a shot he doesn't like in this Hornets offense, launching 16 and 15 the last two while grabbing 20 total rebounds.
Kyle Anderson DK $6k | FD $6.2k
Kyle Anderson is turning into a nice little floor production player for Memphis, which should only continue as he gets a 6% usage increase with Morant out of the lineup. Has averaged 6 fga and 10.5 rpg the last two.
Deandre Hunter $4.9k | FD $4.3k
There are worse SF options for the price than Deandre Hunter in a matchup with Brooklyn where the betting total is 239. The Nets have allowed at least 35 fp to all three SF players they've faced this season.
Lamarcus Aldridge $6.3k | FD $6.5k
The 35-year-old LaMarcus Aldridge is definitely winding down, as he hasn't broken the 30fp mark yet this year. He did get 17 and 14 shots the first two though, and he did have a 30 real point game vs. the Lakers last season (but also an 8 and a 7).
Kevin Durant DK $8.4k | FD $9.5k
$8.4k on DK in a game against Atlanta with a betting total of 240 after resting last game. 🚀Rocket Science Play🚀
Tonight's Center Position Notables
Bobby Portis DK $4.6k | FD $4.6k
Bobby Portis got his usual 26 minutes even in the Bucks' blowout last night, but his intensity was down a bit with a 24fp night. Portis had gone for 30+ fp in the two games prior.
Enes Kanter DK $4.4k | FD $4.8k
The Enes Kanter price is as high as its been all season, but he's also coming off a season high 14 rebounds, and faces a Clippers team that has the 3rd worst rebound rate in the NBA so far.
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You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.
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