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- Top NBA Plays 12/6 | Three Games But Great Plays
Top NBA Plays 12/6 | Three Games But Great Plays
It's that time again. The NBA can giveth, aka 10 and 11 game dockets on Saturdays, Mondays, Wednesdays, etc. - but they can also taketh away as we see just three games on the schedule tonight. For DFS players, the lighter load makes things a bit more challenging but having to dig deeper into each contest allows us to change our strategies slightly too. Do we go Lionel Ritchie and dance on the ceiling or go more J-Lo and get on the floor? This is Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) here to answer those very important questions.
The Three Games on Tap Tonight
There are only three games tonight so they all stand out in some way or another. The first contest is expected to be a blowout as the Boston Celtics are favored by -13 at home vs. the New York Knicks. The Knicks already have a win over the Celtics on November 21st (117-109) but can they make it two for two?
There's another dominating performance expected in the City of Roses as the Portland Trail Blazers are also favored by more than a baker's dozen over the Phoenix Suns. To quote Lee Corso, “not so fast my friend” as the Trail Blazers have lost 6 of their last 7. Then again, the Suns aren't rising much either as they have dropped 6 straight and are without Devin Booker and possibly TJ Warren in this matchup.
We finally have a close matchup in the night cap (or so oddsmakers expect) when the struggling Houston Rockets are +2 underdogs at the Utah Jazz. The Rockets lost by 12 at the Timberwolves on Monday but the Jazz are just 3-6 at home this season. This could be a heads/tails game for bettors.
Tonight's DFS rosters are the few, the proud, the Thursday players. Let's see what we can dig up for value at this flea market:
Guards
Kyrie Irving (DK: $9,000 FD: $9,000 Y! $39)
It's not exactly insight telling you to take the 3rd highest priced player overall, but as long as Celtics don't destroy the Knicks and Kyrie Irving sits out the 4th quarter, the Boston G should have a huge night. New York has allowed 40+ fantasy nights to 3 of the last 5 PG they've faced. John Wall went for 18 points and 15 assists vs. the Knicks on Monday while Mike Conley lit them up for 23 points and 11 assists 5 games ago. New York scored the win vs. Boston on November 21st but it wasn't for lack of production from Irving who went for 22 points, 13 assists, and 6 boards (58.5 FP). Irving has scored 21+ in three straight and also has two 9+ assist nights in that span. Keep it close tonight Knicks!
De'Anthony Melton (DK: $4,200 FD: $4,500 Y!: 10)
We'll call De'Anthony Melton the great unknown Thursday night in his matchup with Portland as a huge underdog. In his first game with increased minutes for the injured Devin Booker, Melton went off for 21 points in 23 minutes which included 5 assists and 2 boards. That landed Melton in the perfect lineup for December 4th and as a result his salary has increased $1,200. There's still great value in the Suns PG as nobody knows if that game was a fluke or a breakout performance. Either way, Igor Kokoskov needs to see what he has in this rookie out of USC and we'll all take a flier for the price as well.
Jamal Crawford (DK: $3,900 FD: $3,700 Y!: 10)
You know it's a small slate when Phoenix Suns are just littering our newsletter. Not only is Devin Booker out tonight vs. Portland but TJ Warren may miss the game too. When those two are out of the lineup, Jamal Crawford's usage increases 5% as does his production. Crawford may have been in line for a solid game vs. the Trail Blazers anyway, as they are 30th on defense vs. opposing SG. Portland has given up two 38+ point fantasy nights to shooting guards in their last three games. Crawford had an 18 point night in 30 minutes three games ago and he should see some increased scoring as long as the minutes are there.
Forwards
Tim Hardaway, Jr. (DK: $6,600 FD: $7,400 Y! $28)
He may not win you tournaments but Tim Hardaway Jr. is just a solid player night in and night out for the value. He's got two major advantages working in his favor tonight. One is that if Boston does indeed get out to a big lead, they're going to relax the defense which should allow Hardaway some nice garbage buckets. Not only that, the Knicks are fresh having had two nights off and two home games prior. Hardaway's production climbs 27% on 2+ days rest to nearly a 40 FPPG average. Trey Burke is out again Thursday with a knee injury which adds another 1.43 FP to Hardaway's production. He's went for 20+ in 7 of the last 10 and there's no reason to think Hardaway can't approach a 30 point scoring night this evening.
Jae Crowder (DK: $4,900 FD: $5,500 Y!: $12)
Jae Crowder is definitely a solid play for the value today as he's up against a Houston defense that is 21st in the league in PF points allowed over the last 5 games. Crowder should have solid rebounding numbers against the Rockets as they've allowed 11 boards to Taj Gibson and 12 to Jabari Parker in back-to-back games. There should be better value in ownership but it is 11% despite the fact that Crowder had just 8 points and 3 boards last time out. He went for 19 and 24 points scored in the two games prior, so the potential is there at least.
Al -Farouq Aminu (DK: $5,200 FD: $5,900 Y! $15)
We'll probably see the usual 50-60 point scoring explosion from the Trail Blazers combo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum if they are going to cover the 13 point spread vs. the Suns tonight. That being said, there are other Portland players who can put up some fantasy points and Al-Farouq Aminu is one of the most likely culprits. He scored 12 points and grabbed 13 boards in the Trail Blazers last game and preceded that with back-to-back 20 point scoring nights. The Suns are 26th in the NBA in PF points allowed over the last 5 days. Kyle Kuzma had a 40 point fantasy night vs. Phoenix 2 games ago and Danilo Gallinari went for 55 fantasy points four contests ago.
Centers
Rudy Gobert (DK: $8,300 FD:$9,800 Y!: $35)
The big question regarding the C position tonight is if it's worth it to pay for Rudy Gobert, who is the highest priced big man on the board. The answer would probably be yes because there simply aren't many more options out there besides who? Clint Capela or Jusuf Nurkic? Gobert has a favorable matchup vs. Houston who has allowed four C's to be in perfect lineups over the last month. The Rockets are 7th vs. the C position in the last five days but were exploited for a 50 point fantasy night by Karl-Anthony Towns on Monday. Gobert has grabbed 15+ rebounds in 4 of the last 6 games and the Rockets are 27th in the NBA in rebounds/game. Gobert has also gone for 18+ in three of his last four games, so there should be some solid production out of the Salt Lake Sultan (copyright) on Thursday.
Enes Kanter (DK: $6,800 FD:$7,100 Y!$26)
We need Enes Kanter on the floor tonight as his minutes have dipped below 27 for the last three games. Not sure if he fell out of favor with coach David Fizdale or what but the Knicks C 33+ in each of the three games prior. He was producing during that time too with three double-doubles including a 21 point, 26 rebound night vs. Marc Gasol and Memphis. There should be opportunity for success down on the blocks tonight as the Knicks take on the Celtics. Boston has allowed four straight 35+ point nights to opposing big men and have gotten killed on the boards by Tristan Thompson (12 rebounds) and Anthony Davis (16) especially. The Celtics have been the 24th worst team in the league vs. the C over past five games and Kanter should see quality minutes, especially if this game is the blowout that oddsmakers are expecting it to be.
With so few C on the slate tonight, these two would be your best bet. Clint Capela could have a big night, especially as Hassan Whiteside went for 23 points and 20 boards December 2nd vs. Utah. The other potential play would be Deandre Ayton who is up against Portland's 20th-versus-the-center defense over the past five days. Deandre Jordan just had a 17 rebound night vs. the Trail Blazers in their last game, so the youngster could loom large vs. the huge underdog Suns.
Sometimes, with such a small docket, you're trying to make the girl with glasses, a ponytail, and paint on her overalls into the prom queen. That doesn't mean dreams can't come true however. We'll be back tomorrow with an expanded schedule.
Freeroll
Congratulations to the winners of yesterday's freeroll contest!
1st Place: jmegill 371.5
2nd Place: jtsafranek 360.5
3rd Place: 351.75
DM us on Twitter with your winning lineup to claim your prize!