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- Top NBA Plays 12/7 | 10 Games for Larry Bird's Birthday
Top NBA Plays 12/7 | 10 Games for Larry Bird's Birthday
There were only three games on the NBA schedule yesterday and each one of them ended up being 20+ point blowouts. Dominating wins can be a pain in the butt for DFS players, as bench players end up getting most of the playing time in the 2nd half. If double digit spreads meant huge wins for the favored team every time, we'd all be in Vegas right now. Sometimes you just have to wipe a game like that off your mind and continue to break down games as you normally would. What better time to do that then Friday, where the schedule makers have given us a 10 game docket? This is Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) guiding you through the slate of games on December 7th – Larry Bird's birthday!
Tonight's Key Games
The game of the night is the Golden State Warriors visiting the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are slight favorites in what could suddenly be a preview of the NBA Finals. The Warriors seem to be full strength except for maybe Draymond Green but Milwaukee has gone 12-2 at home this season.
It could be a big DFS night for a wide range of Miami Heat players as they visit the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing in leg two of a back-to-back and got absolutely smashed 108-86 by the Portland Trail Blazers last night. Portland held a 34-9 lead after the 1st quarter.
Oddsmakers are calling the game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs a toss-up, as they've set the line as a PK. LA is riding a 4 game win streak including a 121-113 win over these Spurs on Wednesday. The Lakers are going to draw a lot of public betting tonight.
More heavy betting action is going to come in on the Philadelphia 76ers today, as they are actually underdogs (PHI +1.5) at the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are 9-4 at home but have dropped their last two games.
There's a ton of other close games spread-wise tonight. The Denver Nuggets / Charlotte Hornets (+1) game is a coin flip as is the Orlando Magic (-2) hosting the Indiana Pacers. Even the Cleveland Cavaliers are giving just +3 at home to the Sacramento Kings. Keep an eye on DFS players in these contests, as close games mean higher usage for top tier guys.
Here are tonight's other best DFS options:
Guards
De'Aaron Fox (DK: $7,700 FD: $7,700 Y!: $31)
The Sacramento Kings are -3 point road favorites at Cleveland tonight and oddsmakers are expecting a decent amount of points with an O/U of 221. The Kings have a very favorable pace differential (106.06 possessions to 97.4) which should favor the speedy De'Aaron Fox. Cleveland is ranked 30th of 30 teams vs. opposing PG and has given up three 50+ fantasy point games to point guards in their last five games. Buddy Hield (20+ points in 4 of 8) could also be a solid play as the Cavs are 22nd vs. SG. Fox gives a better opportunity for a well-rounded night however as he has totaled 9+ assists in 4 of 7.
Lonzo Ball (DK: $5,700 FD: $6,700 Y! $19)
Is Lonzo Ball a viable play tonight vs. the San Antonio Spurs? The Lakers PG should at least be familiar with San Antonio, as the teams just met up on Wednesday in a 121-113 LA win. Ball had a very solid night in that contest with 14 points, 9 assists, and 4 rebounds, which was good for a 37.5 point fantasy outing. Those numbers should increase on Friday with Brandon Ingram out for the Lakers. Ball benefits from Ingram's absence as his FP increase by 5.19. Ingram played just 5 minutes before getting hurt Wednesday and Ball ended up logging 39 minutes in that game. The Spurs are 25th vs. PG starters so we should see some production from the Lakers guard in this contest.
Goran Dragic (DK: $5,900 FD: $5,800 Y! $18)
Goran Dragic is a nice contrarian play for Friday, as he makes his first start since November 16th after missing eight games with a knee injury. Hassan Whiteside is out of the lineup for Miami in their game vs. the Suns and Dragic sees his FP output go up 7.97 with the big man out. Phoenix is 28th vs. opposing PG, which means Dragic could have a big night even if his minutes are limited a bit in his return from the injury. When healthy, the Miami PG had back to back 21+ point nights. Fantasy players are scared of the unknown with Dragic, as ownership is just 1.32% but what a great time to pounce.
Forwards
Allen Crabbe (DK $3,900 FD: $4,500 Y! $10)
Toronto is 10-2 on the road this season and is a huge 8 point favorite at Brooklyn on Friday. If the Nets do get blown out, Allen Crabbe should still see plenty of court time. He might log the minutes anyway, as he's seen 37:25, 32:34, and 32:45 of court time the last three games. Crabbe isn't just out there roaming around either – he went for 22 points last time out and grabbed 8 boards before that. Yes, Toronto is a top 5 team vs. the SF but you have to like the value and opportunity that Crabbe provides in this game.
Jaren Jackson, Jr. (DK $6,100 FD: $7,400 Y! $25)
If the NBA had unlimited fouls, then Jaren Jackson might just be an MVP candidate. The last time Jackson stayed out of foul trouble he logged 43 minutes (in OT) vs. the Nets and responded with 36 points and 8 rebounds. Jackson has 5 or 6 fouls in 3 of the last 4 games besides that Brooklyn contest however, and hasn't been able to log more than 23 minutes of court time. Marc Gasol will battle with Anthony Davis tonight which will leave Jackson a favorable matchup vs. Nikola Mirotic. If the Memphis F can stay out of foul trouble he's got a great opportunity for production as the Pelicans are 26th vs. the PF.
Some of these value plays might enable you to play one of the top tier F tonight such as LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard. There's some cost efficient options at C as well, which could open up availability for any of the stars on tonight's docket including Russell Westbrook vs. the Bulls or Giannis Antetokounmpo battling the Warriors.
Centers
Bam Adebayo (DK: $4,200 FD: $5,500 Y! $10)
Hassan Whiteside is out tonight for the Heat, which makes Bam Adebayo a great play vs. the Suns who are on a B2B. It's actually Miami's Duncan Robinson who has benefitted the most from Whiteside's absence, as his FP increase +12.05 when the big man is out. Goran Dragic also sees an increase in usage of 4.14% but it's gotta be Adebayo who will have a huge night with the boost in minutes. Adebayo has been a strong DFS play at times, even in his reserve role. When Adebayo received 36 minutes of PT 11/25 vs. Toronto he responded with a 16 point, 21 rebound performance. The Suns allowed 14 rebounds in 24 minutes last night to Jusuf Nurkic and even Javale McGee had a 27.5 FP night three games ago vs. Phoenix.
Steven Adams (DK: $7,000 FD: $7,700 Y! $26)
Both Whiteside and Joel Embiid are out tonight, which leaves Anthony Davis as the prime C target. As far as 2nd tier players, however, you have to like Steven Adams in the matchup vs. Chicago. The Thunder have somewhat quietly won 4 games in a row and are +8.5 favorites at the Bulls. Adams has seen his scoring increase the past two games with 21 points and 15 points and he also has double digit rebounds in 5 of the last 9. In the last three games, Chicago has given up 20 boards to Andre Drummond, 15 to Clint Capela, and 11 to Myles Turner and is 29th vs. C starters the last 5 games.
Nikola Jokic (DK: $9, 300 FD: $9,500 Y!: $40)
It's a toss-up tonight for the Nikola big men. Nikola Vucevic has played great lately (24+ point double-doubles in 4 of 6) but he's up against the Pacers who are tops in the NBA vs. the C position. Therefore, Denver's Nikola Jokic becomes a solid roster based on what Charlotte has allowed to opposing centers lately. Since November 30th, the Hornets have allowed a 20 point, 17 rebound night to Rudy Gobert, 36 and 19 to Anthony Davis, and 35 and 12 to Karl-Anthony Towns. Is Jokic in the same company as those elite centers? Maybe not, but he's one of the best candidates for a triple double as any big man in the league. Jokic has four double-digit assist games in his last 7 and went for 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 15 assists two games ago vs. Toronto.
Freeroll
The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:
1st Place: $10 via PayPal
2nd & 3rd Places: Your choice of one-month LineStar Premium, a t-shirt, or a coffee mug
Bonus: If you place 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you will receive 2x that prize!
Please Note - While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win each prize 1 time.