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Top NBA Plays 1/3 | Just a Little Sip
Thirsty Thursday is upon us in the NBA. What you should know about that is that the kids have a new definition of 'thirsty' these days, meaning 'trying too hard' or 'desperate.' That's exactly the kind of feeling DFS players get when trying to muddle through the 3 game card like we see tonight. The main theme for this evening is quality over quantity and although there aren't a ton of games, each one has a pretty solid angle behind it.
Tonight's Headline Games
Game 1A of the night is Kawhi Leonard's($8,800) return to the Alamo when the Toronto Raptors face the San Antonio Spurs (-2.5). The offseason trade of Leonard for DeMar DeRozan ($7,800) appears to be one where both teams are happy. The Spurs are 7-3 in their last 10 and Toronto is in 2nd in the East.
The other marquee contest of the evening is a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors (-8). The Warriors favored by 8 seems like a lot considering Houston has won 5 straight and 9 of 10.
Even the other game on tonight's card looks pretty good. The Western Conference-leading Denver Nuggets (-3.5) travel to face an upset minded Sacramento Kings team.
With only 6 teams in action, the DFS options start to look a little thin. That's OK though because remember, everybody is playing the same 3 games.
Guards
Danny Green (DK: $5,900, FD: $4,200 Y! $10)
There's lots of revenge angles in the Toronto / San Antonio game on Thursday but most of the players are pretty costly. One that is affordable is long time Spur Danny Green, who came over to the Raptors with Kawhi Leonard. Sports writers say that Toronto received two MVP candidates in the trade and it's true that Green's net rating is #1 in the NBA. That doesn't necessarily correlate to DFS success but he's got a 24 and 31 point fantasy night over his last four. Green's points are down because he only averages 6 FGA the last three games - expect more shots to be fired up back in San Antonio.
Austin Rivers (DK: $4,600 FD: $3,800 Y! $12)
Sometimes you have to throw all the analytics out the window when deciding to roster a player. It's true that Austin Rivers has been seeing some solid minutes lately (33, 37, 40 last three) with Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out. The fantasy ROI hasn't been that great for the usage however (22, 27, 19). Expect Rivers to interject himself in Thursday's game vs. the Warriors though. This is a safe bet not only because it's a highly anticipated national game, but also because there are a ton of points expected to be scored in this fast paced game.
Malik Beasley (DK: $4,900 FD: $4,900 Y! $11)
Denver's Malik Beasley is having a breakout season and his price is starting to reflect it. There's still value to be had on Thursday, however, considering he's coming off an 8/15 night with 6 rebounds. Beasley's production did not take a hit with Gary Harris returning for the first time in a month from a hip injury. Beasley also has a favorable matchup with Sacramento, as his production increases +73% in up-paced games. There's also the chance that the Nuggets run the Kings off the court (126-112 win on 10/23) which bodes well for 'the Beast's' playing time.
Forwards
Draymond Green (DK: $5,900, FD; $6,900 Y! $29 )
Draymond Green becomes a play on Thursday for almost the simple fact that Golden State is taking on Houston. The Rockets are giving up 31.2 fppg to PF starters, including 7.3 rebound per game. In three games vs. Houston last season Green averaged 15.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.7 assists. Green has failed to meet projections the last two games (away) but the last time he played at home, he went 7/15 with 11 boards and 7 assists.
DeMar DeRozan (DK: $7,800, FD: $8,800 Y! $37 )
Perhaps the biggest loser in the Kawhi Leonard drama of last season was DeMar DeRozan who had built a comfortable career in Toronto. Do you think DeRozan wants to go off a bit on his old team tonight? He has even said that "leaving the Raptors was like not marrying the woman you always thought you'd marry." Sure, he's got Leonard guarding him tonight but that just might be more motivation. Toronto is 1st vs. the SF, but they still allow 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 field goals per game to the position. DeRozan and the Spurs have an extra day of rest compared to Toronto and his production increases 12% when well rested.
Pascal Siakam (DK: $6,200 FD: $7,000 Y! $25)
Is somebody outside the big trade going to step up for either the Raptors or the Spurs tonight? LaMarcus Aldridge is a solid bet based on his past performances but Toronto F Pascal Siakam has also turned things around a bit lately. After just a 25 and an 11 point night on the road, Siakam has posted back-to-back 40+ point fantasy nights the past two home games. Sure, Toronto is on the road again Thursday but Siakam isn't opposed to production in away games. In Philly on 12/22 the Toronto PF went 11/21 en route to a 39 point fantasy night. Siakam should carry the momentum of two straight 20+ point, double-digit rebound nights into the TNT game on Thursday.
Centers
Jakob Poeltl (DK: $3,500 FD: $3,800 Y! $10)
The final revenge angle play in the Spurs/Raptors matchup is Jakob Poeltl who was drafted 9th overall by Toronto in 2016. Poeltl is definitely affordable tonight, but can his production match? The Raptors do give up 36.6 fppg to C starters. The Raptors are 26th vs. the C position the last 5 days and we'd definitely take a 6/10, 11 rebound night like Chicago's Wendell Carter had vs. Toronto on 12/30. Poeltl only has 11 fga total over the last three games but hey - revenge, right?
Mason Plumlee ( DK: $5,100, FD: $5,000 Y! $14)
We'll call the Mason Plumlee play, "Joker Lite" because Nikola Jokic might be the Denver C to blow up because he averages nearly 50 fantasy points in up-paced games. There are still points out there for Plumlee to have however - and at over $4,000 less. The Sacramento Kings give up nearly 12 rebounds / game to C and are also 28th over the last 5 vs. PF. Plumlee has been a solid 21-32 fantasy point producer in each of the last 9 games and with a short slate, you take the guaranteed points where you can get them.
We take what we can get with a 3 game slate. There are some superstars in action with a lot of different angles to play, so options are a plenty despite the small card. There are 10 games in the queue for Friday night, so we'll get back into it then to wind down the week.
Freeroll
Congratulations to the winners of yesterday’s freeroll contest!
1st Place: dzitner29, 360.5 pts
2nd Place: txhellrazor, 348.5 pts
3rd Place: tbarnes23, 342 pts
DM us on Twitter with your winning lineup to claim your prize!