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Top NBA Plays 1/30 | Fine Tuning Strategies
Whenever Cleveland wins outright and the Suns lose by only two like what happened last night, it kind of sets DFS players into a frenzy. The 'blowout angle' is a very popular one but even Chicago lost by 'only' 5 points on Tuesday, which had that theory in shambles.
At first glance, there are some matchups for today's 8 game slate that look like they could get UGLY, such as Chicago visiting the Miami Heat and New Orleans playing in a B2B hosting Denver. Do we play games like this on the side of caution and parity - or does bad be bad again and the teams that are supposed to get walloped actually do?
Tonight's Headline Games
The 'reverse parity' game of the night has to be the Chicago Bulls as +10.5 favorites visiting the Miami Heat. You expect the Bulls to get dominated in the B2B, but do the Heat overlook them?
On paper (and in person) the Dallas Mavericks look like a horrible road team with a 4-20 record away from the American Airlines Center. The Mavs have kept it close though (which is good for DFS value) covering in 7 of their last 10 away. Oh yeah, they play the New York Knicks Wednesday too.
Anybody got the guts to take Jahlil Okafor ($6.6k) on the B2B after his 27 point, 12 rebound night vs. Houston on Tuesday? Nikola Jokic ($10.9k) and the Denver Nuggets await, although the New Orleans Pelicans are at home.
Speaking of guts, are Washington Wizards fans done evacuating theirs after the team dropped a 116-113 game to Cleveland last night? The Indiana Pacers are only slight favorites even though Washington is on the B2B and Bradley Beal ($8.7k) played 35 minutes yesterday.
Guards
Trae Young (DK: $7,400 FD: $7,300 Y! $26)
Trae Young is enjoying his West Coast road trip with 26 points and 8 assists Monday vs. the Clippers. The Atlanta G is in for another big night if the Kings return to their up-pace ways back in Sacramento after a 7-game road swing. Young has back to back 40+ point fantasy nights on the road and should make it a third vs. a Kings team that's allowing 39.1 fppg to PG starters.
Malik Beasley (DK: $4,700 FD: $4,300 Y! $10)
Malik Beasley gets his shots up regardless but that should especially be true vs. a New Orleans team on part two of a B2B. Beasley has at least 11 field goal attempts in his last three games and he should see solid minutes with the Nuggets in a blowout possibility.
Josh Richardson (DK: $6,300, FD; $6,500 Y! $20 )
Miami's Josh Richardson is a solid play vs. a Bulls team coming in on a B2B. Richardson has under 3% ownership as Chicago is 1st vs. the SF/SG position. Getting this value with the low ownership is a must vs. a fatigued Bulls team.
Forwards
Jaylen Brown (DK: $4,700 FD: $4,700 Y! $15)
Kyrie Irving is doubtful today, which increases the scoring opportunities for Jaylen Brown. His fp's go up over 5 with Irving out of the lineup and Brown is a solid play anyway, with two 30 fantasy point nights in his last three games.
Mario Hezonja (DK: $3,500 FD: $3,800 Y!: $10)
It could be a reach to play Mario Hezonja today. But with Knicks coach David Fizdale's unpredictable roster decisions, he's worth a shot. He's actually seen some good court time with 26 and 30 minutes the last two nights and the Knicks are up against a horrible road team in Dallas who is 4-20 away from American Airlines Center. The Mavs also rank 26th vs. SF reserves, so the potential for upside is there - if the minutes are.
Thaddeus Young (DK: $5,600 FD: $6,200 Y!: $23)
How did the Wizards lose to Cleveland last night? Both Cedi Osman and Jordan Clarkson had 26+ points so Washington can definitely allow the big night. With Victor Oladipo out, the next likely culprit for a breakout game for the Indiana Pacers is Thaddeus Young. The PF has underperformed the last two but had a 56 point fantasy night (10-19, 15 rebounds) three games ago. With Washington being on a B2B and ranking 30th defensively vs. the PF, there's great value for the price on Young.
Center
Hassan Whiteside ( DK: $7,500, FD: $8,100 Y! $24)
Wednesday's team stack is the Miami Heat hosting the Chicago Bulls on a B2B. 13% of the time the perfect lineup stack features a PG and a C and Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside make a great combo vs. the Bulls. Whiteside has performed lower than projected the last two games, but he's back home today where he had a 10-13 FG night with 16 boards on 1/23. Nearly the entire Bulls' roster logged close to 20 minutes in a close loss to Brooklyn last night, so the opportunities should be there for the Miami big man.
Utility Player
Luka Doncic (DK:$8,800 FD:$9,800 Y!42)
This lineup has allowed for $10,800 to spend on a utility player on DraftKings, which obviously gives a lot of options. Luka Doncic, however, is playing at Madison Square Garden and a huge game would make a fitting coronation for the inevitable ROY. Doncic has 60 and 70 fantasy points his last two games and the Knicks are 29th defensively vs. the SF position.
Dark H-O-R-S-E Play of the Night
Gary Payton II (DK: $3,000 FD: $3,500 Y! $21)
Sure it was last season and sure he was with a different team but the last time Gary Payton II was in a B2B situation he posted 25 points and 12 rebounds. Young Glove is playing in just his fourth game with the Wizards but scored 11 points in 12 minutes last night vs. Cleveland. There should be minutes available with Washington on the back-to-back.
There are a couple changes in today's newsletter format including the dark h-o-r-s-e play of the night. It derives it's name from the Larry Bird Box Challenge in which you play horse in the dark with a blindfold on. Basically, that section will be really deep roster plays to take a flier on. We'll see how it goes in the debut. Until then, feel free to follow Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) for more sports betting insights and oversights.
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