Part of DFS analysis involves taking betting totals into account. You obviously target games that oddsmakers tell you are going to be higher scoring. That was a complete abomination last night, as 7 of the 9 games were either 'over' or 'under' by 15 points or more. That includes the Clippers / Suns game which went under the total by 39 points.

It's just one more thing to consider in your daily breakdown - oddsmakers sometimes get beat up on. Then again, if you bet on the Celtics / Jazz total last night like I did, you lose the over by a single point (👿). Let's try to decipher where the number setters are right and wrong on this Thursday 4-gamer.

Tonight's DFS Headlines

Knicks @ 76ers (-7.5), O/U 214.5

Philly inexplicably lost to Cleveland last night by 14 points while scoring only 94. Joel Embiid left that game with a shoulder injury after just 7 minutes of court time. Embiid will likely sit tonight and the Sixers are already without Ben Simmons (back). The Knicks have dropped 11 straight in this series.

Trail Blazers @ Pacers (-9.5), O/U 218.5

Indiana has been in two consecutive low scoring games - putting up just 81 points on Sunday in Toronto and then holding Charlotte to only 80 on Tuesday. Hard to expect much from Portland tonight as they embark on a 3-game swing out East.

Kings @ Thunder (-7), O/U 223.5

These two teams have combined to win 7 in a row. The Kings allowed 120+ points in three straight but held opponents to 103 and 94 the last two. OKC allowed 8 of 11 opponents to 110 points or less before a 124-122 win in Chicago on Tuesday.

Lakers @ Warriors

No LeBron James (groin) tonight for the Lakers, which will drive up Anthony Davis ownership even higher than it would be on just a 4-game slate. Where the Warriors really struggle defensively is the back court though, going 30th dVp against the SG and 26th against PGs.

Guards

Rajon Rondo DK $3.5k | FD $4k

One of the big problems for Rajon Rondo lately has been getting minutes. But the last two times he's played 25+, the result was a 33 and a 41 fp night. There's no LeBron James tonight for LAL, which gives Rondo a boost in usage. Golden State has allowed 30+ fp to four straight PGs and ranks 26th defensively vs. the position.

Alec Burks DK $4.2k | FD $4k

Speaking of injured superstars for Thursday's slate, Philadelphia will be without both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. That definitely provides an upside opportunity game for Alec Burks. Philly is on the back-to-back, but Burks should be on the fresh side after playing just 17 minutes Wednesday vs. Cleveland (scoring 13 points). The Knicks are a top 5 team vs. SG's - but are also on 0 days rest themselves.

Dennis Schroder DK $5.5k | FD $5.5k

The total for Sac @ OKC seems on the higher side at 223.5, which bodes well for Dennis Schroder's production tonight. Schroder has scored 21+ real points in 6 of the last 10, taking at least 11 shots in 9 of those. Sacramento ranks 20th dVp against the SG, and Schroder went for 24/4/9 vs. the Kings on January 29th.

Forwards

Domantas Sabonis DK $9.1k | FD $8.4k

Domantas Sabonis doesn't have the 60fp ceiling game over the last 11 that you'd like at this price. He did put up 66fp back on January 26th though and it was against tonight's opponent, Portland. The Trail Blazers are last in the NBA defensively vs. the PF position. Sabonis is coming off a 21/15/9 outing Tuesday, his 3rd straight double-double.

Kyle Kuzma DK $3.9k | FD $4.1k

Kyle Kuzma has largely been a forgotten man in this year's Lakers' lineup but that could change tonight with LeBron James out of the lineup. A bright spot is that Kuzma has 13, 13, and 10 field goal attempts the last three games - but just a 23 fp ceiling over that span. Kuzma also likes the matchup with Golden State, posting a 12/2/6 and 22/5/2 line in two games vs. the Warriors this season.

Tobias Harris DK $7.5k | FD $7k

Does Tobias Harris get to be top dog tonight with Embiid and Simmons out of the lineup? Harris does get nearly a 10fp boost and a 3% usage increase in the absence of those two but also played 34 minutes last night vs. Cleveland. Philly's opponent, New York, is also on 0 days rest though - but the Knicks managed their minutes well with nobody going over 30. Time to take some chances on a short slate.

Center

Steven Adams DK $6.8k | FD $6.9k

Steven Adams has strung together three consecutive 6X games and has a very good chance keep that going vs. a Kings team starting Harry Giles at the C position. Adams has put up lines of 19/17, 21/14, and 16/9 over his last three games. The Kings just gave up a 21/12 night to Marquese Chriss on Tuesday and allowed rebounding totals of 15, 11, and 13 in the three prior to the C spot.

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You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.

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