Forget everything you know about the NBA - the Knicks won last night. Actually it wasn't that hard to see that one coming but it served as a nice reminder that there are no absolute sure things in the league. What makes that statement so frustrating is that there also are some sure things. The Celtics blowout loss in Toronto on Tuesday, for example, was predictable considering Boston wanted to preserve for Wednesday's winnable contest at home vs. Portland.

Let's find the insight and oversights that we can unearth on this beautiful Wednesday 11-game card.

Tonight's Headline Games

People might be leery on the Boston Celtics (-2.5) in the back-to-back but the 23 point loss in Toronto did do them some usage favors. Kyrie Irving had the high for Boston in minutes with just 27:50. The Portland Trail Blazers are playing their 4th of 7 road games.

Any New Orleans Pelicans players stand out in value? The Los Angeles Lakers gave up 110 points to Memphis on Monday and allowed 128 in New Orleans last Saturday.

The San Antonio Spurs look like a big winner just because the line of SAS -4.5 seems high. The Detroit Pistons *seem* like a good bet, as they are on a 3-game win streak and 8-2 over their last 10. The Spurs have lost 3 in a row and are 3-7 over their last 10 - but also playing their first home game in weeks.

It would also be easy to see the Milwaukee Bucks come out and lay an egg at the Sacramento Kings. Milwaukee hasn't played out West since early November and they were 2-2 on that road swing. In the past week the Kings lost by 2 at the Oracle and won in Oklahoma City. Sacramento is also 10-1 ATS their last 11 home games.

Guards

Elfrid Payton (DK: $5,200 FD: $6,200 Y! $20) Ownership: 5.67%

This feels like the last value game for Elfrid Payton before everybody else 'catches up' to the New Orleans guard. He's quietly approached 40fp the last two games and is still just three games returned from an injury. What you like about Payton is that he shoots (10+ fga all three games) but also dishes (4, 9, and 14 assists). On Saturday vs. the Lakers, Payton had 14/5/9 but those numbers should improve on the road - well, specifically on the road in front of the LA crowd (+47% in up-paced games).

Buddy Hield (DK: $6,400 FD: $6,900 Y! $26) Ownership 5.95%

Milwaukee has to be due for an egg-laying, kind of like Orlando was on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden. Prior to a loss Monday to Minnesota, the Kings had won by 3 vs. OKC, lost by 2 to Golden State, and fell by 2 to Denver before the all star break - all on the road. Buddy Hield had a 50 point night vs. OKC and had at least 33 fantasy points in the other three road contests. Sacramento is finally back home Wednesday, which you hope helps Hield find his shot. At the very least he gets a lot of them (15+ attempts in 7 straight games).

Kemba Walker (DK: $8,500, FD; $8,800 Y!:$39 ) Ownership 4.18%

Some DFS analytics are very in-depth but this one is not - "play PG vs. Houston." In the last five games the Rockets have allowed at least 45+ fp to each PG they've faced. Granted, you've got Steph Curry, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Trae Young on that list but Jeff Teague also had 52.25 on 2/13. Plus, wouldn't Kemba Walker be among the elite on that list? The Charlotte PG gets his chance vs. the Rockets tonight, looking to continue his run of 50+ fp nights in 6 of the last 9.

Forwards

Andrew Wiggins (DK: $6,200 FD: $6,700 Y! $26) Ownership 13.65%

If you can't always dig up production, at least find opportunity. That's the name of the game for Andrew Wiggins tonight up against Atlanta, who overall ranks 29th defensively vs the SF position. At the very least this should be a fast paced game, as Minnesota averages over 102 possessions per game and Atlanta nearly 104. Wiggins' production goes up 31% in up-pace games. As for more opportunities, he's had 15+ field goal attempts in 5 of the last 6 including a 28 shot night vs. Orlando at the beginning of the month. Minnesota is finally relatively healthy, but Wiggins will still be on the court (35+ minutes in 9 of 11).

Jayson Tatum (DK: $6,000 FD: $6,700 Y!: $28) Ownership 4.74%

People are starting to sour on Boston after three straight losses. Dropping a 1-point game to the Bucks wasn't that big of a shocker but a 10 point defeat in Chicago and a 23 point loss in Toronto last night was just embarrassing. You know what that means though - a likely 15 point Celtics win over the Trail Blazers. Boston is back home for the first time in three games and although they're on a B2B, Jayson Tatum logged just 24:24 vs. the Raptors. The SF has scored in double figures for 11 straight games, getting at least a dozen field goal attempts in 8 of them. Portland just gave up a 43.25 fp game to SF Cedi Osman on Monday, so you have to like Tatum's chances of 40+ tonight.

Kyle Kuzma (DK: $6,200, FD: $6,700 Y! $26) Ownership 10.64%

Are we in line for another ceiling game for Kyle Kuzma as the Lakers are back at home after a short 2-game losing road trip? It's hard to gauge Kuzma's value today simply because LA has played so many games on the road lately (8 of 9 dating back to January 29th). Kuzma had that 43 point night in 25 minutes vs. Detroit at the Staples Center at the start of January (granted it was without LeBron James). He's really played only three fully healthy games at home since then - but is good to go tonight, so why not take the flier?

Center

Marvin Bagley III (DK: $6,700 FD: $8,000 Y!: $30) Ownership 6.96%

Is this the last sub $7,000 (DK) game for Sacramento's Marvin Bagley III? He's been absolutely dominating on the interior with at least 25+ points in two of the last three as well as three straight 10+ rebound nights. Bagley has moved into the starting lineup which means he'll be at 4 spot vs. Milwaukee on Wednesday. Lauri Markkanen has a 17 and a 12 rebound night in that position vs. the Bucks over the past 5 games. Along with a big rebound night, Bagley should score, as he has 14, 18, and 19 field goal attempts the last three - all road games.

Utility Player

Joakim Noah (DK:$4,800 FD:$5,700 Y!15) Ownership 5.42%

Tonight's lineup leaves $4,800 which the stars align to be just enough for Joakim Noah. When you're finding a low-priced utility player do you go ceiling or floor? Well for Noah, Wednesday could be both. First off, he's playing at home vs. Chicago, his old running mates. Will we see a Noah appreciation night kind of like Doc Rivers did with Dirk Nowitzki? Once the C position kind of cleared up in Memphis, Noah has been solid with 38, 36, and 47 fantasy points over the last three. Ivan Rabb and Jaren Jackson will both miss this game so the minutes are going to be there for Noah.

There's good diversity on tonight's NBA card. We've got a nice medium sized 6-game slate to eat light on Thursday before binging before the weekend. Check back tomorrow or feel free to follow Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) on Twitter to find the red hot "Contrarian Confidence Power Rankings" for NBA betting.

Freeroll

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