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Top NBA Plays 3/2 | Don't Chicken Out
The North Star Mall in San Antonio was trending today because a lady was released from Coronavirus quarantine and went directly to the food court Chick-fil-a.
Although the virus is no laughing matter, that lady provided a great motto for NBA DFS - if you want something, don't chicken out and overthink it. It's better to pull the trigger on your analysis and fail than to miss out on a 60fp night because you overthought it.
Let's put on the hazmat suits and see what tonight's 7-gamer has in store for us:
Tonight's DFS Headlines
Jazz (-8.5) @ Cavs O/U 220
Cleveland is battling some injuries to Tristan Thompson (knee) and Darius Garland (groin) who are both likely out tonight. Could the Cavs have value vs. a Jazz team going on the road for the 1st time since the all-star break and that has allowed 113+ in five straight games?
Rockets (-10) @ Knicks, O/U 230.5
Houston could be in a letdown spot after a big win at Boston on Saturday night. Then again, Russ Westbrook ($10k) has back-to-back 62 fp games and James Harden (10.5k) scored 61 real points at Madison Square Garden last season.
Trail Blazers @ Magic (-7), O/U 222
This could be a great spot to target Orlando players, as Portland is 1-4 without Damian Lillard and just lost 117-129 at Atlanta on Saturday.
Grizzlies @ Hawks (-2), O/U 240.5
Oddsmakers are expecting some points in the Memphis at Atlanta matchup with a betting total of 240.5. The Grizzlies had allowed at least 124 points in 3 of 5 games since the all-star break but held the Lakers to 88 on Saturday. This is still a matchup of two of the top seven teams in pace though.
Bucks (-3.5) @ Heat, O/U 225.5
Miami gets the best pace boost of the night (+7.85 possessions) and the Heat have upped their offensive production, averaging 122.5 ppg since the all-star break. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.4k) had a 40-20 game vs. the Hornets yesterday but also logged 35 minutes.
Mavericks (-3.5) @ Bulls, O/U 224.5
Dallas is just a -3.5 favorite on the road at lowly Chicago tonight, mostly because the Mavs are coming off the back to back after scoring a win in Minnesota last night. Luka Doncic ($10.3k) did not play Sunday vs. the T'Wolves but is probable tonight.
Pacers (-2) @ Spurs (-12), O/U 220.5
Indiana has almost too much balance to target against the Spurs' #26 ranked defensive efficiency. All five Pacers starters scored in double figures on Saturday.
Guards
Coby White DK $5.8k | FD $6.2k
Coby White is a GTD with a back strain but he's listed as probable on the injury report. The Bulls have the Mavs and their #4 defense vs. the PG and #16 vs. the shooting guard but Dallas is on the back-to-back tonight. White has 22+ real points in four straight games including three with 33 or more. White has 43+ fp in 3 of 4 which is nearly 8X tonight's price.
Kevin Porter DK $4.9k | FD $4.9k
Kevin Porter moves into the starting lineup for Cleveland tonight as Darius Garland (groin) sits. Does that hurt or help Porter's recent uptick though? Porter has 14+ real points in 3 of the last 4 including 30 vs. Miami when logging 40 minutes. Porter was getting a ton of shots (13+ in 3 of 4) with the 2nd unit, but can that continue with the 1st string? The Jazz have allowed 33+ fp to four straight SGs which makes Porter a play tonight.
Seth Curry DK $6.1k | FD $5k
Seth Curry has great upside at just $5k on FD. Yes, he played 30 minutes yesterday vs. Minnesota and his 37 fp performance vs. the Wolves did come with Luka Doncic (thumb) out of the lineup. Even so, Curry had 37 real points Friday vs. the Heat with Doncic on the floor and has taken 15+ shots in 3 of the last 5. Curry has 26 and 22 real points in his last two on 0 days rest and the Bulls have allowed 44+ fp to 3 of the last 4 SGs they've faced.
Forwards
Aaron Gordon DK $8.3k | FD $7.4k
FanDuel is not happy with Aaron Gordon's 7/6/6 line Saturday vs. the Spurs, dropping from his $8k price tag last game. That's OK though because Gordon should get back to form tonight vs. Portland's #30 ranked defense vs. the PF. Gordon had gone for 54+ fp in the three games prior to Saturday's 24 fp lemon. He had double-digit rebounds in four straight and the Trail Blazers rank 25th in rebounding rate.
Dillon Brooks DK $5.3k | FD $5.8k
Memphis has Atlanta tonight in a game with a betting total of 240.5. The Hawks are 29th defensively vs. both the SG position and the SF, which bodes well for a big Dillon Brooks night. Brooks has taken 26, 24, and 22 shots the last three games. No reason to think that doesn't continue in a matchup of two top 7 teams in pace.
Duncan Robinson DK $4.3k | FD $4.2k
The Heat play Milwaukee tonight, a team that is last in the league in opponent's three pointers made per game. That makes Duncan Robinson a play, especially as the Bucks played yesterday in Charlotte. Robinson has 8 games of at least 8 three-pointers attempted in his last 10 including three of 13 or more. Miami is also running a much faster pace since the all-star break, scoring 116+ in six games.
Center
Jonas Valanciunas DK $6.8k | FD $7.2k
Great value for Jonas Valanciunas at under $7k on DK tonight. The betting total in the Memphis / Atlanta game is 240 and the Hawks rank 29th defensively vs. the C position. Valanciunas has grabbed 20 and 25 rebounds the last two games and Atlanta has the 4th worst rebounding rate in the league.
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You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.
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