Tastefully curated by LineStar Fantasy Experts.

5:30 PM EST UPDATE: Let's break down what we know up to this point.  In Phoenix, T.J. Warren is officially out and Devin Booker is "very questionable" which I would translate to doubtful.  The Suns actually recalled two players from their G-League today so I'd say with confidence Booker will not play.  Alan Williams is expecting to make his debut so if you were considering Alex Len I'd say it's time to fall back to plan B since we no longer can predict minutes.  On the other side of that matchup still no update on Marcus Morris.  The latest is he "could play" but that was as of last night.  For the Timberwolves Derrick Rose was ruled out, as expected, so we should see a minute increase for Jamal Crawford.  For Detroit, Stanley Johnson will play and Reggie Jackson will get about 20-25 minutes.  He's essentially in an even timeshare with Ish Smith right now which eats into both of their productivity.  In Charlotte, Nicolas Batum will play on a minutes restriction but there is no word on how many minutes.  My thought right now without all the information is stay away from Batum, Lamb is still fine for tournaments, and I'd stay away from Dwayne Bacon despite what I said below.  We just don't know enough about the rotation now.  Cody Zeller is still out for the Hornets so Willy Hernangomez should get some extra time but it won't be much with a rested Dwight Howard in the lineup.  For the 76ers Markelle Fultz will make his return (no this is not a typo).  Again, this is breaking so we have limited information.  I would assume he'd be on a minutes restriction so I wouldn't worry much about how this impacts any starters.  It's a downgrade to T.J. McConnell.  Timothy Luwawu is out for the 76ers but this honestly doesn't impact much.  For the Knicks, Kyle O'Quinn and Damyean Dotson are both confirmed out.  You can give a boost to Luke Kornet as the backup center.  He did well yesterday but only played 19 minutes so it's very risky.  Finally, for the Lakers, Brandon Ingram is confirmed out so the trend of Lakers players playing heavy minutes should continue.  The last piece of news I'm waiting on that we don't have yet is Julius Randle.  As I mentioned below he tweaked his ankle during Saturday's game and is listed as day to day but the x-rays were negative and nobody is talking about it so I'm going to assume he plays.  That's it!  Good luck, enjoy your Monday evening and remember to tag me on chat @glandry with questions or feedback!   

We've got a nice, light five-game slate to ease you back into the work week today.  There's some good pace up games and a couple of teams have high implied totals.  Despite the small slate we still have quite a bit of injury news to watch as the Celtics, Suns, and Grizzlies are all pretty banged up. We also have two double-digit spreads and another one currently at 9.5 points so there are blowout scenarios to consider. Keep an eye on that throughout the day.  For now, we'll work off of what we know and adjust later if needed.  

Check back for an update later today and feel free to tag me on the LineStar chat @glandry with any questions or feedback!

Guards

Will Barton, DEN [@PHI] (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.1K)

I really like this game between the Nuggets and 76ers tonight.  It currently has the highest O/U on the slate with a spread of only 5.5 in favor of Philadelphia.  If this game stays competitive like Vegas thinks it will there could be a lot of fantasy production to go around.  Will Barton will once again fill in for the injured Gary Harris.  He's taken full advantage of his starting opportunities putting up over 45 fantasy points in two of his last three games.  The 76ers aren't a great matchup but they are not awful for shooting guards either.  Keep in mind that J.J. Redick is currently the starter for them and he's certainly not a defensive matchup we need to shy away from.  I like several players from both sides of this game tonight.  It will probably be popular so just keep that in mind for tournament strategy.  Popularity aside though Barton is currently one of the better values on this slate with a strong floor and a high ceiling when he gets the starter's minutes.  

Andrew Wiggins [vs. MEM] (DK: $6.5K, FD: $7K)

If you were playing NBA DFS last season you probably recall paying somewhere in the high $7K to low $8K range for Wiggins.  This season, with the addition of Jimmy Butler, Wiggins has seen a sharp decline in his productivity and therefore a more affordable price tag.  With Butler on the shelf, Wiggins sees a 4% usage increase.  In the last week, Wiggins has averaged 35 minutes, 20 real-life points, and 7 rebounds per game resulting in five straight games of at least 29 fantasy points.  On the season Memphis appears to be a difficult matchup but we all know by now they've completely given up.  If we look at more recent samples we see they are 23rd against opposing shooting guards over the last 10 games. My only concern here is the possible blowout scenario (Minnesota is a 14 point favorite) but we also know that Coach Thibodeau tends to play his starters heavy minutes in any situation.

Trey Burke, NYK [@CHA] (DK: $4.8K, FD: $4.9K)

After seeing his playing time trending upward recently the Knicks finally made the decision to start Trey Burke yesterday and he did not disappoint.  In 27 minutes he put up 31 DraftKings points (33 FanDuel points) leading to a surprising win over the Wizards.  New York wants to see what they have in their younger players as they close out the season so expect Burke to continue to start.  In the last ten games, Charlotte is 22nd in average fantasy points allowed to starting point guards.  Burke's price tag will likely rise quickly over the next several games so I'm hoping to roster him a few times before it gets to a point that we need to reconsider.  

Forwards

Kyle Kuzma, LAL [@DET] (DK: $6.9K, FD: $6.6K)

On a small slate we need to find some players from underdog teams with lower implied totals that may go overlooked.  Lakers starters are playing an absurd amount of minutes right now.  Here are the minutes per game Kuzma has played over their last ten: 38, 42, 39, 39, 39, 32, 37, 43, 41 (he missed one game in the middle).  Chances for fantasy production increase dramatically, even in a bad matchup, when you have this much opportunity.  In that same span, he's had three games over 40 fantasy points.  Despite the minutes and production, his price has remained relatively flat and he's still under $7K on both sites.  We currently have Kuzma listed as one of the better values tonight, particularly on FanDuel where he is slightly less expensive.  As long as the Lakers young guns continue playing minutes like this you could make an argument for them on almost any given night.  Keep an eye on the news here as Julius Randle left Saturday's game early after tweaking his ankle.  If he's out give Kuzma an additional boost.   

Jayson Tatum, BOS [@PHO] (DK: $6.8K, FD: $6.6K)

Jaylen Brown returned to the lineup for Boston last night which does cut into Tatum's usage slightly but this is a matchup against the Suns which is essentially fantasy gold.  Phoenix is coming off a game against the Magic in which they gave up 41 fantasy points to Mario Hezonja who prior to that game had done nothing with his increased playing time.  The Celtics have the highest pace differential of any team on the slate tonight and Phoenix is dead last in defensive efficiency against almost every position.  Last time these teams met Tatum put up 34 fantasy points (it's worth noting Brown was in the lineup that game so I'm not worried about the usage dip).  All of the Boston players are in play tonight and I believe many will go for Terry Rozier after his career night last night.  I'm not saying it couldn't happen again but recency bias has certainly got the best of me in DFS before.  If Rozier is going to be chalk tonight I'll look to other Celtics players in equally good spots to differentiate. 

Dwayne Bacon, CHA [vs. NYK] (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.6K)

One of the best parts of DFS is trying to go off the board and find a player who makes sense that nobody else is talking about.   Today, I will present a case for Dwayne Bacon.  The Hornets seem to be giving Bacon some run recently presumably to figure out what kind of player they have.  In the past week, he's averaging 27 minutes per game.  He's done well in these opportunities with three games over 20 fantasy points including a 30 point performance.  Today, he faces a Knicks team who ranks 27th against small forward reserves.  Even better, the Hornets are heavy favorites in this game which could lead to increased run for Bacon if they get a big lead.  We need to pay attention to the news here as Nicolas Batum hasn't officially been ruled out yet.  If he's out then Jeremy Lamb would start and Bacon should be the guy off the bench.  If Batum plays then Lamb would move back to the bench and then Bacon's minutes are less secure.  There's definitely no guarantee here so if you want to roster him do so at your own risk but he stood out to me during my research and figured it was worth sharing.

Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN [vs. MEM] (DK: $9.3K, FD: $10.4K)

Here's another matchup that doesn't look great on paper but as I've stated before I'm essentially throwing out all defensive metrics for the Grizzlies as their rotations (and motivation) are completely different then they were earlier in the season.  I'm eyeing Towns today, particularly on DraftKings where he's down to $9.3K.  Currently, he's the top projected player and a top ten value on both sites.  In the past week, he's averaging a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds per game.  Marc Gasol (assuming he plays) is a good individual defender but Towns has shown upside in almost any matchup. I like him quite a bit tonight especially at his reduced price on DraftKings.

Nikola Jokic, DEN [@PHI] (DK: $8.6K, FD: $9.5K)

Jokic is typically a tournament only play for me as his performances tend to fluctuate.  He has a really high ceiling but also a lower floor than you'd like for someone typically priced like he is.  Today, we get a discount as he's dropped $700 on DraftKings since their last game and $1000 on FanDuel since their game on March 21st.  This is his lowest price on DraftKings since February 1st.  It's not a great matchup as the 76ers are tough defensively and Joel Embiid sports a defensive real plus-minus rating of 3.52 which is sixth best among centers this season.  But, Jokic has had success against him this year scoring 54 fantasy points in their last meeting.  He should go lower owned tonight for only a five-game slate as there are several appealing center options. Jokic is a player with the upside needed to win you a GPP on any given night. 

Al Horford, BOS [@PHO] (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.8K)

The often forgotten star of the Celtics in the shadow of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward once he returns, Horford finds himself the lone veteran presence on a Boston team looking to make a deep run in the eastern conference this year.  Tonight, despite the injuries, he should be able to lead them to a win over the hapless Suns.  Horford currently shows as having the top matchup of the night amongst all starters as the Suns are dead last against opposing power forwards (remember he's center eligible on FanDuel which is why he's listed here) giving up over 55 fantasy points to the position in three of their last four games.  On top of the perfect matchup he gets a usage bump without Irving, Smart and possibly Morris on the court (Morris is currently day to day).  I'm looking to load up on Celtics players tonight and Horford's matchup stands out above them all.  

Injuries 🤕

Denver at Philadelphia

Denver:

• OUT: Gary Harris - SG

• UPGRADE: - Will Barton - SG/SF

Philadelphia:

• DTD: Timothe Luwawu - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Justin Anderson - SG/SF

New York at Charlotte

New York:

• DTD: Damyean Dotson - SG/SF

• DTD: Kyle O'Quinn - PF/C

• OUT: Kristaps Porzingis - PF/C

• OUT: Ron Baker - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Luke Kornet - PF/C

Charlotte:

• DTD: Cody Zeller - C

• OUT: Nicolas Batum - SG/SF

• OUT: Michael Carter-Williams - PG

• UPGRADE: Jeremy Lamb - SG/SF, Willy Hernangomez - C

LA Lakers at Detroit

LA Lakers:

• DTD: Julius Randle - PF/C

• DOUBT: Brandon Ingram - SG/SF

• OUT: Isaiah Thomas - PG/SG

• OUT: Josh Hart - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Kyle Kuzma - PF/SF, Travis Wear - PF

Detroit:

• DTD: Stanley Johnson - SG/SF

• OUT: Jon Leuer - PF

• UPGRADE: Luke Kennard - SG/SF

Memphis at Minnesota

Memphis:

• QUEST: Chandler Parsons - SF/PF

• OUT: Tyreke Evans - PG/SG

• OUT: Mike Conley - PG

• UPGRADE: Andrew Harrison - PG/SG, Dillon Brooks - SG/SF

Minnesota:

• DTD: Derrick Rose - PG

• OUT: Jimmy Butler - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Andrew Wiggins - SF, Jamal Crawford - SG

Boston at Phoenix

Boston:

• DTD: Marcus Morris - SF/PF

• OUT: Marcus Smart - PG/SG

• OUT: Kyrie Irving - PG

• OUT: Daniel Theis - PF/C

• OUT: Gordon Hayward - SF

• UPGRADE: Terry Rozier - PG/SG, Jaylen Brown - SG/SF, Jayson Tatum - SF/PF

Phoenix:

• DTD: T.J. Warren - SF/PF

• DTD: Devin Booker - SG/SF

• OUT: Tyson Chandler - C

• OUT: Alan Williams - C

• UPGRADE: Josh Jackson - SG/SF, Alex Len - C, Marquiss Chriss - PF/C

This could be an interesting small slate as there seems to be an opportunity for fantasy production in several games.  Don't be afraid to roster a player you like even if the matchup doesn't look that great.  You need to take more risks on these smaller slates to have a chance.  I'll highlight the Lakers players again who are playing crazy minutes but could go overlooked as road dogs against a tough Detroit defense.  If you have any questions or feedback on the article feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat @glandry.  Good luck today and check back for an update!

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