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- Top NBA Plays 3/28 | Shabazz Napier Chalk Day ☄️
Top NBA Plays 3/28 | Shabazz Napier Chalk Day ☄️
Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.
5:30 PM EST UPDATE: Quite a bit of news both expected and unexpected. Let's get right to it. For the Clippers, Milos Teodosic has been ruled out. Lou Williams replaced him in the second half yesterday so I would expect him to start. It's POSSIBLE with the return of Tyrone Wallace that Doc Rivers decides to start Wallace instead and keep Williams in the second rotation but the fact he started the second half yesterday would lead me to believe this won't happen. Just keep an eye on it. On the other side of that game, the Suns have ruled out Alex Len, T.J. Warren, and Devin Booker as expected. Give a boost to Troy Daniels and Josh Jackson (who are highlighted in today's article below) as well as Alan Williams. Also for Phoenix, Elfrid Payton is questionable. Tyler Ulis would be an excellent play tonight should Payton miss. Kevin Love has been ruled out as expected for Cleveland. I would expect either Tristan Thompson or Larry Nance Jr. to get the start at center. I have more interest in the player that starts but both should see increased minutes. For Charlotte, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will play. This is a slight downgrade to LeBron James as MKG is a premier defender but let's be serious it's LeBron and it's most likely angry LeBron after last night's embarrassing loss. For the Lakers, Brandon Ingram will return to the lineup tonight on a minutes restriction. This should send Kyle Kuzma back to the bench but I really don't think it will impact his productivity. If anything it will just lower his ownership. It's still a tight rotation and Kuzma will be the lead guy on the second rotation. Everyone's minutes will come down some with Ingram in the mix but they were all playing unsustainable minutes to begin with so this will just get them back to normal. For the Celtics, Marcus Morris is out and Al Horford is now questionable. We are not going to get the Horford news before lock with the Celtics playing in Utah. If you want to roll the dice here is how the usage shakes out. Greg Monroe would be my favorite option but the Celtics are only GPP plays tonight with a low total in a tough spot against the Jazz. For the Knicks, Emmanuel Mudiay will play and Kyle O'Quinn is now out. Luke Kornet will be the main beneficiary without O'Quinn. In Orlando, Wes Iwundu is out. The Magic are without Fournier, Simmons, and Iwundu. Mario Hezonja will play all the minutes he can handle. Finally, for the Timberwolves, Derrick Rose has been ruled out. This changes absolutely nothing. I think that's finally it! There's still some question marks out there so stay alert. If you've never hung out in the chat before LineStar does an awesome job updating you on breaking news so I'd recommend hanging out in there up until lock if you have the time. I'll be keeping an eye on it myself so feel free to tag me with questions!
We've got another eight-game slate on tap for tonight. Unlike last night we are dealing with a lot of teams with nothing left to play for which could make things interesting. There are six games with big totals of 216 or higher and then two other games with small totals of less than 202. Similar to yesterday there are some games with double-digit spreads so blowout scenarios could be in play. We also have some very close spreads including a zero line between the Cavs and Hornets. The one piece of news we do have is that Damian Lillard's girlfriend went into labor last night and he will miss tonight's game against Memphis. So, I hereby declare today, Shabazz Napier chalk day. Let's get to work!
I appreciate all the great feedback on chat. Glad to see people are liking the updates before lock so we'll be sure to keep that going. Check back later today and feel free to tag me on the LineStar chat @glandry with any questions or comments!
Guards
D'Angelo Russell, BKN [@ORL] (DK: $6.3K, FD: 7.2K)
Believe it or not, this is one of my favorite games of the night. Unlike last night we have a lot of teams today who don't have anything left to play for so we are going to have to dig a little to find possible fantasy production. This matchup brings us two teams at the bottom of the eastern conference. It also brings us two teams who play at a faster pace and don't play defense (both are ranked near the bottom in total defensive efficiency.) The Magic are 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards over their last ten games. In their last game they gave up 43 fantasy points to Elfrid Payton who has done virtually nothing all season. In two previous meetings this season, Russell has put up 32 and 41 fantasy points. I like a couple players on both sides of this game tonight but Russell is standing out above the others.
Troy Daniels, PHO [vs. LAC] (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4.1K)
This is my other favorite game of the night as once again we have two teams who play at an above average pace but also don't play defense squaring off against each other. T.J. Warren and Devin Booker are both doubtful again tonight and there are couple other Suns players on the wrong side of questionable. Most of the attention, rightfully so, has gone to Josh Jackson but Daniels has quietly taken advantage of his recent opportunities as well. In his last five starts, he's had 29, 23, 32, 17 and 28 fantasy points (DraftKings scoring). He also had 27 fantasy points off the bench in their last meeting with the Clippers where he played just 24 minutes (he's averaging 32.6 minutes per game when he starts). The Clippers are giving up 32 fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season which ranks 28th in the league. He's an even better value on FanDuel where he's slightly less expensive. I like Daniels to push for at least 25 fantasy points in this game tonight.
Shabazz Napier, POR [@MEM] (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.5K)
Napier will be 100% owned in cash games and well over 50% owned in tournaments but sometimes you have to just eat the chalk when it makes sense to do so. Here we have a minimum priced (near minimum on DraftKings) point guard in a great matchup as the Grizzlies are giving up an average of 35.5 fantasy points per game to the position. Memphis ranks 29th against point guards over the last ten games and has given up at least 37 fantasy points in five straight. On top of all this Napier actually has had some success already in this matchup when he put up 29 fantasy points against them back on November 20th off the bench. Take the free square and move on. Figure out how to differentiate elsewhere today. It's worth noting, though I'm not doing a separate write up about him, this is a boost to C.J. McCollum as well. With Lillard off the floor, he sees a 5% usage increase equaling an additional 6.48 fantasy points per game.
Forwards
Tobias Harris, LAC [@PHO] (DK: $7.3K, $7.5K)
Harris is not a player I've rostered very often this season but tonight is a great time to change that pattern. Phoenix is nothing short of abysmal against opposing power forwards. In four of their last five games, they've given up the following fantasy point performances: 45.3, 63.2, 54.8 and 53.2. There was a game in the middle where Jeff Green got hurt and only played 12 minutes but I'm guessing he would have crushed them too. In addition to the matchup, Harris is on a bit of a run himself with at least 25 fantasy points in four straight games. He's also played at least 33 minutes in each of those games. The last point I'll make for Harris is probably the most compelling. In their last meeting against the Suns on February 23rd, he put up a double-double with 30 points and 12 rebounds leading to a 61 fantasy point performance. Need I say more? Get this guy in your lineups tonight.
Josh Jackson, PHO [vs. LAC] (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.5K)
I keep telling myself I'm going to jump off the Josh Jackson train as his price continues to climb but then he keeps giving me reasons to hang on a little longer. As mentioned before the Suns are most likely going to be without T.J. Warren and Devin Booker tonight which means we should once again see Jackson playing heavy minutes in what's shaping up to be a great game environment for fantasy production. Similar to his own team, the Clippers can't play defense ranking 24th in average fantasy points allowed to opposing small forwards. I talked up Kris Middleton in this article yesterday in the same spot against the Clippers and he came through for us scoring 22 real-life points and 40 fantasy points. Jackson has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in five straight games that he's started for the Suns. At some point, his price is going to creep up just a bit too high for me to roster him, but it's not going to be tonight.
Taj Gibson, MIN [vs. ATL] (DK: $5.6K, FD: $5.7K)
Hear me out on this one cause I know he's not a name you typically relate to fantasy production. Gibson has very quietly put up some big games recently scoring at least 28 fantasy points in three of his last four. In the middle of that stretch is a 14 point fantasy performance so yes, the floor is low here. He's also been playing a ton of minutes averaging 35.2 per game over the last week. It's a terrific matchup with Atlanta ranking 26th this season against opposing power forwards. Gibson also put up 35 fantasy points the last time these two teams played back on January 29th. He's not a high usage guy so the risk is there but he's shown the return on investment (both recently and in the past against the Hawks) along with the low ownership you need to help you in your tournament lineups.
Centers
Nikola Vucevic, ORL [vs. BKN] (DK: $7.8K, FD: $8.7K)
Vucevic's up and down performances often cause sharp increases and decreases in his price. The key is finding the right time to jump on and back off again without getting burned. On March 22nd, Vucevic was $8.4K on DraftKings and put up a 15 fantasy point dud (albeit in a tough matchup against Joel Embiid). His price subsequently dropped $800 to $7.6K where he rebounded with a 47 fantasy point performance. Despite that performance, his price only increased $200 on DraftKings today but he has an excellent matchup against the Nets. This is one of those spots where I would have expected his price to get back into the low to mid $8K range, but it didn't, so now I think we need to take advantage. On FanDuel, he actually saw a steeper increase of $600 after his last game. He's still in play over there but there's definitely less value with the larger price tag. Brooklyn is giving up an average of 40.7 fantasy points and 13.2 rebounds per game to opposing centers. This should be a fast-paced, competitive game with scoring opportunities. I like Vucevic to enter double-double territory and push for another 40+ fantasy point performance tonight.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR [@MEM] (DK: $6.4K, FD: $6.9K)
I talked up Nurkic in this article yesterday and he came through for us putting up a double-double and 44 fantasy points. Despite the performance, his price remained the same on FanDuel and dropped $300 on DraftKings. Also working in our favor is with Damian Lillard out tonight Nurkic sees a 2% usage increase. Similar to last night, this is not a great matchup. Marc Gasol is one of the better individual defenders at the center position. But we also know that Memphis is not the same team they were earlier this season. They are throwing out a lot of different rotations and giving different guys playing time as they count down the days until their miserable season finally comes to an end. It will be interesting to see as the day rolls on where Nurkic's ownership is projecting. If he's going to be highly owned then I'd stay away, given how volatile he can sometimes be. If most of the ownership goes to Napier and McCollum (which I suspect it will) he could be the forgotten benefactor of Lillard's absence tonight and a great pivot off of the other guys (at least McCollum) in tournaments.
Tristan Thompson, CLE [@CHA] (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4K)
Kevin Love took a nasty elbow yesterday resulting in a tooth injury and he was also being evaluated for a concussion. He's currently listed as a game-time decision so this recommendation is obviously assuming he doesn't play. Tristan Thompson is back after missing nine games. He's played well since returning with double-digit rebounds in each of the three games and a 23 fantasy point performance last night in only 17 minutes of playing time. If he gets the start tonight he's an excellent value for his price in a good matchup against the Hornets. Charlotte ranks 17th in average fantasy points allowed to opposing centers over their last ten games. They gave up 13 rebounds and 36 fantasy points to Enes Kanter on Monday night. I like Thompson to approach double-double territory tonight if given the minutes. You may not need him, as there is already a lot of value on this slate and more will probably open up as we get news, but he's someone to keep on your radar as you work on your rosters today.
Injuries 🤕
New York at Philadelphia
New York:
QUEST: Courtney Lee - SG/SF
QUEST: Emmanuel Mudiay - PG
QUEST: Damyean Dotson - SG/SF
OUT: Kyle O'Quinn - PF/C
UPGRADE: Michael Beasley - SF/PF, Luke Kornet - PF, Frank Ntilikina - PG/SG
Philadelphia:
DTD: Timothe Luwawu - SF
UPGRADE: N/A
Brooklyn at Orlando
Brooklyn:
No injuries to report
Orlando:
DOUBT: Jonathan Isaac - PF/C
OUT: Jonathan Simmons - SG/SF
OUT: Evan Fournier - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Mario Hezonja - SF/PF, Wes Iwundu - SG/SF
Cleveland at Charlotte
Cleveland:
QUEST: Kevin Love - PF/C
DTD: Kyle Korver - SG/SF
DTD: Cedi Osman - SF
UPGRADE: - J.R. Smith - SG/SF, Rodney Hood - SG/SF, Jeff Green - PF, Larry Nance Jr - PF/C, Tristan Thompson - PF/C
Charlotte:
OUT: Cody Zeller - C
OUT: Michael Carter-Williams - PG/SG
UPGRADE: - Willy Hernangomez - C
Atlanta at Minnesota
Atlanta:
DTD: Jaylen Morris - SG
OUT: Dennis Schroder - PG
OUT: Kent Bazemore - SG/SF
OUT: Malcolm Delaney - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Damion Lee - SG/SF, Isaiah Taylor, PG, Taurean Prince - SG/SF
Minnesota:
OUT: Derrick Rose - PG
OUT: Jimmy Butler - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Andrew Wiggins - SG/SF
Portland at Memphis
Portland:
BABY WATCH: Damian Lillard - PG
DTD: Moe Harkless - SF/PF
UPGRADE: Shabazz Napier PG/SG, Evan Turner - SG/SF, C.J. McCollum - PG/SG
Memphis:
QUEST: Andrew Harrison - PG/SG
DOUBT: Tyreke Evans - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Wayne Seldon - PG/SG, Dillon Brooks - SG/SF
Boston at Utah
Boston:
DTD: Marcus Morris - SF/PF
OUT: Marcus Smart - PG/SG
OUT: Kyrie Irving - PG
OUT: Daniel Theis - PF/C
UPGRADE: Terry Rozier - PG/SG, Al Horford - PF/C, Greg Monroe - PF/C
Utah:
OUT: Raul Neto - PG
UPGRADE: N/A
LA Clippers at Phoenix
LA Clippers:
DTD: Danilo Gallinari - SF/PF
UPGRADE: Wes Johnson - SF/PF
Phoenix:
QUEST: Alex Len - C
DOUBT: T.J. Warren - SF/PF
DOUBT: Devin Booker - SG/SF
OUT: Tyson Chandler - C
UPGRADE: Josh Jackson - SG/SF, Marquese Chriss - PF/C, Alan Williams - C
Dallas at LA Lakers
Dallas:
DTD: Dwight Powell - PF/C
OUT: J.J. Barea - PG/SG
OUT: Wesley Matthews - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Yogi Ferrell - PG/SG, Maxi Kleber - PF/C
LA Lakers:
QUEST: Brandon Ingram - SG/SF
OUT: Isaiah Thomas - PG/SG
OUT: Josh Hart - SG
UPGRADE: Lonzo Ball - PG, Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - SG/SF
It's weird that the two games I'm most excited about are between the Clippers/Suns and the Nets/Magic but that's March fantasy basketball in a nutshell. Despite more teams being in play tonight that aren't in the playoff hunt, there are still good spots for fantasy production. This should be another exciting slate. I appreciate you taking the time to read this and as always if you want to leave any feedback or ask a question feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat @glandry. Good luck!
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