Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat. 

5:30 PM EST UPDATE:  How those baseball lineups doing?  Not so good?  Let's get ready for NBA lock!  We'll start with Golden State where Omri Casspi is out and Kevin Durant and Draymond Green are both in.  Durant has been practicing all week and was expected back Tuesday.  I don't expect a minute restriction for him though there is no official word.  I'm a little more worried about Green who spoke to the media today and said he might have some trouble getting his wind back after being sick and also showed off his swollen elbow.  Again, no official word but I could see him being limited to some degree.  He would be GPP only.  For the Pacers, Trevor Booker is out as expected.  This doesn't have a major impact now that Domantas Sabonis is back I would anticipate his minutes being split up between him and Thaddeus Young.  In Washington, John Wall is unlikely to play (was really looking forward to playing him at minimum salary on FanDuel).  Continue to treat the Wizards as you have been with Tomas Satoransky as the starting point guard.  Something interesting that I didn't notice in my initial research that I wanted to point out now.  Otto Porter Jr. has dominated the Pistons this year in three games with fantasy performances of 57, 42 and 41 points. The one difference now is the Pistons have Blake Griffin but they are still 20th in average fantasy points allowed to small forwards in their last 10 games.  Chicago is making this slate interesting with some expected and unexpected news.  Cristiano Felicio and Lauri Markkanen are both out so their frontcourt is now wide open.  I'm not worried about Robin Lopez he might see a few minutes but nothing to get excited about.  I'm very interested in both Bobby Portis and Noah Vonleh.  For the Heat, Dwayne Wade and Tyler Johnson both have migraines but are both expected to play.  I would have interest in one if the other sat but that isn't looking to be the case.  To further add to the confusion Bam Adebayo was upgraded from out to questionable and Hassan Whiteside is still questionable.  We really need some clarity on this before lock as Miami is arguably the best team to target tonight.  If all these guys play then I have interest in Whiteside only.  Last, but certainly not least, is LaMarcus Aldridge who I essentially built my entire article around today.  Unfortunately, he's still questionable so I have nothing to report.  If he plays I think I'm off the Spurs entirely.  If he sits then several players are interesting.  That's it for now.  Still a few situations to watch for the next hour and a half.  I'll keep an eye on chat so feel free to tag with questions.  Good luck tonight!

Is there a better time of the year for sports than early spring?  Today is Opening Day, Saturday is the Final Four, Monday is the National Championship, next weekend is The Masters, and we still have NBA and NHL playoffs and the NFL draft right around the corner!  We, for the time being at least, are going to stick to basketball and there are five games to prepare for tonight.  I won't lie to you this slate is not pretty.  What I'm going to do for the article today is avoid the stud players like Westbrook,  Antetokounmpo, Durant (if he plays without a minute restriction) and Wall (if he plays without a minute restriction) and try to find some other players you could use to build around them.  On a small slate, especially this one, you're going to wind up rostering some players you don't feel great about but are in spots where it's possible they could go off.   Let's get to work!  By the way, if you faded Shabazz Napier yesterday, enjoy your money!

Check back later today and feel free to tag me on the LineStar chat @glandry with any questions or comments!

Guards

Eric Bledsoe, MIL (@GSW) (DK: $7K, FD: $7.5)

Golden State has not been the strongest matchup for point guards this season when it comes to fantasy production.  If you look at Bledsoe's matchup chart today there's a lot of red and it shows the Warriors as the 4th best team against opposing point guards over their last ten games.  But, if you look closer, none of the point guards they've faced recently are typical fantasy producers to begin with.  Bledsoe will be matched up with Quinn Cook who has a defensive real-plus minus rating of -1.22 one of the worst at his position this season.  This is a winnable matchup despite what the recent fantasy production for point guards in this spot is showing us.  Bledsoe has also been incredibly consistent lately scoring at least 30 fantasy points in nine straight games.  Assuming Kevin Durant plays this could turn out to be one of the more competitive games tonight which always helps with fantasy production.  I like Bledsoe to at least get us to that 30 point floor with plenty of upside for more if things line up for him. 

Buddy Hield, SAC [vs. IND] (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.2K)

This is, of course, pending news on Garrett Temple who is currently questionable for the game tonight.  If Temple plays then we'd need to get some news on how the minutes shake out.  Hield has been picking up some additional minutes in his absence averaging 26.3 per game in the last week.  After a hot streak that saw him score at least 35 fantasy points per game in five straight games, he's come back down to earth a little in his last three with 25, 35 and 22 fantasy points.  This has resulted in a pretty sharp price drop particularly on FanDuel ($800) and even DraftKings ($300).  Tonight the Kings are matched up against the Indiana Pacers who are tough defensively.  The advantage for Hield is he plays on the second unit which is much more favorable.  The Pacers are 27th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing backup shooting guards over their last ten games.  Hield has 40 point upside but could go overlooked after a poor performance his last time out.  I'm going to take advantage of the price drop and hope he rebounds in an exploitable matchup.  

Dejounte Murray, SAS [vs. OKC] (DK: $5.8K, FD: $5.7K) & Patty Mills (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.5K)

I'm listing these two together cause I think you can make the argument, even on FanDuel where they are both only point guard eligible, to play them together on this small slate.  If LaMarcus Aldrige misses tonight's game there will be a lot of opportunities to go around on the Spurs.  Murray is one of the bigger beneficiaries with a 3.26% usage increase while Mills sees a nearly 2% bump.  It's also a good matchup as the Thunder rank 28th in average fantasy points allowed per game to opposing point guards over their last ten games.  Murray started against the Thunder back on December 3rd and put up 45 fantasy points including 11 rebounds on his way to being a member of the perfect lineup that night.  If choosing between the two it's Murray without question.  They are both in play, especially on this small slate.  

Forwards

Josh Richardson, MIA [vs. CHI] (DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.2K)

Miami is one of the better teams to target tonight. It's a double-digit spread so the blowout concern is certainly in play but they are also a little banged up so the rotation is fairly thin to begin with.  I'm not going to factor in potential blowouts too much when building my rosters tonight.  You simply can't cross teams off your list when the slate is this small.  Richardson is one of my favorite plays on the board today.  He's been playing a lot of minutes averaging 34.1 per game over the last week.  He has that 40 point upside we are looking for.  He even has a good history in this matchup scoring 37 fantasy points last time they played the Bulls.  Chicago ranks 29th against opposing small forwards this season giving up an average of 29 fantasy points per game.  I like for Richardson to reach closer to his ceiling tonight and he'll be a focal point of my roster construction on this slate.  

Bojan Bogdanovic, IND [@SAC] (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.9K)

Currently, we have Bogdanovic as the best value on both sites at the small forward position tonight.  It's a good matchup, the Kings are ranked 19th in average fantasy points per game allowed to opposing small forwards.  He's also seen a slight uptick in minutes recently averaging 33.8 minutes per game.  He's got the upside we need which he flashed recently on March 23rd against the Clippers and he has at least 29 fantasy points in three straight games.  Last time these two teams met he put up 30 fantasy points.  There's a lot to like here and he's another name I don't think people will necessarily gravitate toward. You might be able to get him at lower ownership even on this smaller slate.  He provides some salary relief as well so you can fit in one of the higher priced guys tonight.  Sidenote, he's facing his brother tonight, that has to add motivation right?

Rudy Gay, SAS [vs. OKC] (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4K)

This is obviously contingent on what happens with LaMarcus Aldridge tonight.  Gay has started to see an uptick in minutes averaging close to 20 per game over the last week after only averaging 14.2 per game this season.  If Aldridge misses we could see a situation where he is pushed into some serious minutes.  We all know Gay is capable of big games. I would love to see what he does if he were to get the opportunity.  With Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard off the floor, Gay sees a 5% usage increase which is the biggest on the team.  It's not a great spot, the Thunder are tough on opposing small forwards.  But in this case, the increased opportunity and the price outweigh the risk of the matchup.  

Centers

Andre Drummond, DET [vs. WAS] (DK: $9.4K, FD: $9.4K)

I know I said I wasn't going to write about any of the obvious studs but can we just pretend Drummond isn't a stud since he's priced under $10K?  Center is awful on FanDuel tonight.  It's a little better on DraftKings where more players have multi-position eligibility.  In all seriousness though $9.4K on both sites for Drummond is too cheap.  On FanDuel, his price dropped $800 from their previous game.  This is a guy who put up 64 fantasy points less than a week ago.  Tonight, he gets a matchup with the Wizards who he has destroyed this season scoring 56 and 59 fantasy points in his last two games against them.  They've given up two 50 point fantasy performances in their last five games and LaMarcus Aldridge was on his way to another one before he got hurt on Tuesday night and only played 18 minutes.  Honestly, I think I'm locking in the raw points from Drummond at a weak position today and then trying to differentiate around him.  With his price decrease, especially on FanDuel, it's not out of the question that you could fit Drummond and another high priced player with some of the cheaper guys you'll be forced to roster on this slate.  

Myles Turner, IND [@SAC] (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.6K)

That's right folks. I'm doing a write up on Myles Turner who I believe is the player most commonly referred to as "trash" in the NBA chat on a nightly basis. But here we are. He's seen a sharp drop in price, especially on DraftKings, where he's down $1000 since March 21st. Turner does have upside but virtually no floor. This is an excellent spot, however, as the Kings are giving up 32.3 fantasy points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game to opposing centers. Sacramento is ranked 24th against the position on the season. Willie Cauley-Stein is one of the worst individual defenders and the Kings are near dead last in defensive efficiency. If there was ever a time for Turner to reach his ceiling this would be it. You could pivot from Drummond and use that salary to spend up elsewhere. If Turner gets you into the 40 point range you're in a fantastic spot to move past the field. No guarantee but game theory is more important than ever on a slate like this.  

Pau Gasol, SAS [vs. OKC] (DK: $5.4, FD: $4.6)

There's a lot riding on the status of LaMarcus Aldridge today.  Without Kawhi Leonard on the Spurs this season Aldridge is a very high usage player and the focal point of their offense.  When someone like that misses and there is no clear option to take that role the usage gets spread out among everyone else.  There's a lot of potential value that opens up if he's out.  The problem here is we don't know exactly which player will eat up his minutes.  It could be Gasol, Davis Bertans or even Joffrey Lauvergne (sounds like a Game of Thrones character).  They each played equal minutes after Aldridge went down last game.  The reason I'm choosing Gasol is we know he's capable of putting up a big game when needed.  In 24 minutes against Milwaukee on March 25th Gasol put up 42 fantasy points.  He has the upside needed as long as we are confident he'll get the playing time.  I realize this is a less than ideal endorsement but we need to dig deep today.  

Injuries 🤕

Washington:

• No injuries to report

Chicago at Miami

Chicago:

• DTD: Cristiano Felicio - PF/C

• DTD: Paul Zipser - SF/PF

• OUT: Antonio Blakeney - PG/SG

• OUT: Zach LaVine - PG/SG

• OUT: Kris Dunn - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Cameron Payne - PG/SG, Bobby Portis - PF/C, Noah Vonleh - PF/C

Miami:

• QUEST: Hassan Whiteside - C

• OUT: Bam Adebayo - PF/C

• UPGRADE: James Johnson - PF/C, Jordan Mickey - PF/C, Kelly Olynk - PF/C

Oklahoma City at San Antonio

Oklahoma City:

• No injuries to report

San Antonio

• DTD: LaMarcus Aldridge - PF/C

• OUT: Kawhi Leonard - SF

• UPGRADE: Davis Bertans - PF, Joffrey Lauvergne - PF/C

Indiana at Sacramento

Indiana:

• QUEST: Trevor Booker - PF/C

• UPGRADE: Thaddeus Young - PF/C

Sacramento:

• DTD: Zach Randolph - PF/C

• DTD: Garrett Temple - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Skal Labissiere - PF/C, Buddy Hield - SG/SF

Milwaukee at Golden State

Milwaukee:

• DTD: Thon Maker - PF/C

• UPGRADE: Tyler Zeller - C

Golden State:

• QUEST: Draymond Green - PF/C

• QUEST: Omri Casspi - SF/PF

• PROB: Kevin Durant - SF/PF

• OUT: Steph Curry - PG/SG

• OUT: Klay Thompson - SG

• UPGRADE: Quinn Cook - PG, Nick Young - SG, Jordan Bell or Kevin Looney - PF/C (whoever gets the start)

This is an ugly slate if you couldn't figure that out on your own.  There are some stud players available tonight who are obviously all in play so you'll have to figure out which ones you like best and what you can fit around them that maximizes your upside.  There is good news.  Slates like this tend to frustrate DFS players when they can't find anyone they like and wind up forcing in bad plays.  If we do a little more work then the other guys tonight and find a couple of gems it can lead to a big payoff.  Don't worry about floor tonight.  It doesn't exist.  Also, there should be some overlay in tournaments.  With everyone focused on baseball and this being a less than ideal slate it wouldn't shock me at all.  Keep an eye on that.  Check back for an update before lock, good luck tonight, and happy Opening Day!

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