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- Top NBA Plays 3/31 | Small Saturday Breakdown and Recap from Yesterday
Top NBA Plays 3/31 | Small Saturday Breakdown and Recap from Yesterday
Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.
5:30 PM EST UPDATE: Very little to report on the main three-game slate but let's take a quick look so you're ready to go. In Boston, Al Horford and Marcus Morris are both no longer on the injury report. So, I'm off of Greg Monroe for tonight. Shane Larkin has been ruled out but Jaylen Brown has been upgraded to probable despite dealing with a toe injury so this really doesn't impact anything. In Miami, Tyler Johnson is confirmed playing tonight. Since the Heat are at full strength right now this doesn't impact much. The Warriors have ruled out Omri Casspi but have confirmed that Klay Thompson will rejoin the starting lineup tonight. As I said before this will hurt the upside of Quinn Cook but he should still get plenty of minutes. Thompson is not expected to have a minute restriction so feel free to fire him up. That's it! Short and sweet today. I'll be back tomorrow for the Easter Sunday slate. Good luck tonight!
Crazy slate last night. We'll do a quick recap of yesterday at the end of this article there's something I want to share with you guys that I hope you'll find useful. For now, we have a five-game all-day slate for today and a three-game main slate tonight. Since the main slate is only three-games I'm going to include the earlier games as well. For today's article, I'm going to neglect to mention anyone priced over $8K on either site. We need to dig deeper to make a case for some players who could help you with this smaller slate. If I just sit here and point out Durant, Wall, Walker, Drummond, and Green I'm not doing you any favors. So, with that said, let's get to work!
Check back later today and feel free to tag me on the LineStar chat @glandry with any questions or comments!
Guards
Goran Dragic, MIA [vs. BKN] (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.2K)
I know I know he's not a name you like to roster for fantasy purposes. He's pretty boring and he often gets out to slow starts and makes you suffer before ultimately coming through in the end. He does provide us some rare stability today on an otherwise lackluster slate. He won't kill your lineup but he lacks the ceiling most nights to take down a tournament. We can't argue with the matchup, however, against a Nets team ranked 20th in average fantasy points allowed per game to point guards. Miami is one of the better teams to target on this slate with the second highest implied total on the board but a close enough spread that tells us this game may stay competitive throughout. On most nights, Dragic will reach value which is really better suited for cash games. He does, however, have a handful of 40 and even 50 fantasy point performances this season which shows you he's capable of breaking out. I'll be taking a long look at him today when building lineups.
Quinn Cook, GS [@SAC] (DK: 6.6K, FD: $6.2K)
Cook is playing some fantastic basketball taking full advantage of his opportunities as the starter. Today, he gets a great matchup against a Kings team ranked 23rd against point guards over their last ten games giving up an average of 36 fantasy points per game. Cook's breakout game as the starter came against this same team when he put up 42 fantasy points just a couple of weeks ago. The downside here is Klay Thompson sounds like he'll make his return today. This won't impact Cook's minutes but it will put a dent in his role in the offense. Still, it's a great spot and he's basically the only true point guard on the roster right now so I like his chances to do well again.
Fred VanFleet, TOR [@BOS] (DK: $4.8K, FD: $5K)
You have to dig deep today and find some hidden gems that will allow you to differentiate from the field if you're playing in tournaments. VanFleet has been getting solid minutes off the bench for the Raptors. He's played at least 20 minutes in five straight games. Today, he gets a Celtics team who is a little thin defensively at the guard position without Kyrie Irving or Marcus Smart. Last time these teams met VanFleet put up 27 fantasy points in 31 minutes off the bench. That workload is never guaranteed so dial back your expectations but if he could do something similar to that again today he'd be an excellent value at likely low ownership.
Forwards
Reggie Bullock, DET [@NYK] (DK: $5K, FD: $5.2K)
Bullock is actually a shooting guard but is small forward eligible on FanDuel (you can play him at either position on DraftKings.) The Knicks rank 22nd on the season against shooting guards giving up 30.7 fantasy points per game. Bullock put up 26 fantasy points the last time these two teams faced each other on December 22nd. I actually like the game environment here despite being between two teams who are out of the playoff hunt. The 211 O/U leaves room for some fantasy upside and the 3.5 point spread tells us it should stay competitive. These are two things we always try to find in a game when we are looking for players to add to our rosters. This is a matchup where Bullock can reach for his ceiling but likely will fly under the radar for most DFS players. He's firmly in play on the all-day slate.
Justice Winslow, MIA [vs. BKN] (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.9K)
Roster construction today will most likely lead us to figure out how to pay up for as many studs as possible and then filling in value as best we can. With the ownership being so high on the stud players finding low owned value plays will be the key to success in tournaments. Winslow is averaging 25.5 minutes per game off the bench over the last week. He's had at least 20 fantasy points in three out of five games during that span including a 30 fantasy point performance in their last game. The good news with Winslow is we know his minute floor is somewhere in the mid-twenties, which is reasonable. The better news is if the Heat blowout the Nets in this game (which is possible despite the closer than expected spread) Winslow's minutes would only increase. I like him as a low owned value play today who has the ability to get you into the 30 fantasy point range and pay off big dividends in tournaments.
Luke Kornet, NYK [vs. DET] (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.6K)
Enes Kanter is doubtful for today's game against the Pistons. Assuming he misses then Kyle O'Quinn would likely draw the start and Luke Kornet would see increased playing time off the bench as well. It's worth noting that I've read O'Quinn would be the expected starter but we actually have Kornet currently listed as the projected starter so just keep an eye out. Honestly, either way, they would both get their minutes and be in play. The sneakier play would be to use whoever comes off the bench as they would likely avoid Andre Drummond defense. Drummond isn't a complete shutdown defender but he's definitely above average. It's also an improved matchup with Blake Griffin currently on the shelf. Detroit is 16th against opposing centers giving up an average of 31 fantasy points per game in their last ten (Kornet is a power forward on FanDuel which is why we have him here so keep that in mind.) Kornet's performances are all over the map if you look at his player chart so the floor is non-existent for him. But, it doesn't take much for a near minimum priced guy to reach value. If he's expected to get 30 minutes (or even close) today then he's a strong option.
Centers
Hassan Whiteside, MIA [vs. BKN] (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.5K)
Finally, I can recommend a player who I actually might consider rostering on a regular basis. Whiteside is arguably my favorite option on the board today. After an extended absence, he returned in their last game and scored 29 fantasy points in only 19 minutes of action. With a game now under his belt, I'd expect him to be closer to a normal workload today but we still get him at a discounted price. Brooklyn is a dream matchup for centers. The Nets rank dead last against them on the season giving up an average of 40 fantasy points per game. Whiteside put up 51 fantasy points of his own last time these teams met. I'm pretty sure I'm pressing the lock button next to his name today. We should see his price start to creep back into the $8K range fairly soon so good time to take advantage while you can.
Greg Monroe, BOS [vs. TOR] (DK: $5.6K, FD: $5.3K)
This is completely depending on the news we get out of Boston today. Al Horford and Marcus Morris missed the Celtics last game and for the time being, they are listed as day to day. If either one of them sits then Monroe should get an opportunity to play big minutes and it would make him an option on this slate. The matchup isn't great. The Raptors are a tough defensive team, particularly in the frontcourt. But, Monroe has the upside to put up a big game when given the opportunity. In two games this season he started against the Raptors and put up 34 (26 minutes) and 37 fantasy points (30 minutes). This should be a grudge match between the top two seeds in the east and despite being pretty banged up the Celtics continue to find ways to win. Monroe has been a welcome veteran presence on a team being carried by its young stars right now. If he gets the playing time tonight he'll be a big reason why this game stays close.
Kyle O'Quinn, NYK [vs. DET] (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.5K)
I really hate to say it but if Kanter misses then you have to consider Kyle O'Quinn tonight. In one of my articles last week I went on a mini-rant about the roller coaster ride of emotions you go on when rostering Alex Len but that he has the ability to put up big numbers if things line up just right. Well, O'Qunn is worse. I've been a part of many "Kyle O'Quinn chalk days" that have failed miserably. I'm making a good argument to play him tonight huh? He IS capable of a big game and it looks like he'll be in for heavy minutes today without Kanter. He's already had some success against the Pistons with 29 fantasy points in 24 minutes in their first game and 19 fantasy points in 12 minutes in their second game. He's a solid per-minute producer and if he can stay out of foul trouble today he could have a big impact on this slate. The day I ranted about Len he had a huge night. Let's hope O'Quinn can do the same.
Injuries 🤕
Charlotte at Washington
Charlotte:
OUT: Cody Zeller - PF/C
OUT: Michael Carter-Williams - PG
UPGRADE: Willy Hernangomez - PF/C
Washington:
QUEST: John Wall - PG
QUEST: Otto Porter - SF
UPGRADE: Kelly Oubre - SF, Tomas Santoransky - PG/SG, Bradley Beal - PG/SG
Detroit at New York
Detroit:
OUT: Blake Griffin - PF/C
UPGRADE: Anthony Tolliver - PF/C
New York:
PROB: Courtney Lee - SG/SF
PROB: Kyle O'Quinn - PF/C
QUEST: Frank Ntilikina - PG/SG
DOUBT: Enes Kanter - PF/C
UPGRADE: Kyle O'Quinn - PF/C, Luke Kornet - PF/C
Toronto at Boston
Toronto:
No injuries reported
Boston:
DTD: Al Horford - PF/C
DTD: Marcus Morris - SF/PF
OUT: Marcus Smart - PG/SG
OUT: Kyrie Irving - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Terry Rozier - PG/SG, Jaylen Brown - SG/SF, Jayson Tatum - SF/PF, Greg Monroe - PF/C
Brooklyn at Miami
Brooklyn:
DTD: Isaiah Whitehead - PG/SG
UPGRADE: N/A
Miami:
PROB: Tyler Johnson - PG/SG
UPGRADE: N/A
Golden State at Sacramento
Golden State:
PROB: Klay Thompson - SG/SF
QUEST: Omri Casspi - SF/PF
DOUBT: Andre Iguodala - SG/SF
OUT: Steph Curry - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Patrick McCaw - PG/SF, Quinn Cook - PG
Sacramento:
DTD: Garrett Temple - SG/SF
DTD: Zach Randolph - PF/C
UPGRADE: Bogdan Bogdanovic - SG/SF, Buddy Hield - SG/SF, Skal Labissiere - PF/C
Real quick, I wanted to recap last night as I think there was a valuable lesson to learn from all the insanity before lock if you're new to DFS. If you didn't play last night it was nuts. There was a bunch of news that came out last minute and even some unexpected news (looking at you Eric Gordon). At one point I was wondering if Houston would have enough players to dress for a full team. As all this value opens up you start to scramble and sometimes tend to forget about your research throughout the day. This, in turn, leads to panic and you wind up forcing in bad plays. On slates like last night, with so much value available, don't assume just because a player is more expensive he's a better option. When I was new to DFS and didn't have a lot of confidence in my research, I would automatically try to spend any leftover money I had and get as close to full salary as possible. I would assume if I had too much money still on the table I was missing something and my lineup would fail. This is NOT true. I'm not saying you should leave a lot of leftover money consistently but once in a while you'll come across a slate where you just simply don't need all the salary available to you. Trust your instincts and your research when this happens. To support what I'm saying I thought I'd share my FanDuel lineup last night which turned a nice profit for me but had $700 in remaining salary. Shout out to @berto30 who asked me about Ersan Ilysova on chat before lock. I had overlooked him but it made a lot of sense. Just because I'm the one writing the articles doesn't mean I don't listen to what you guys have to say as well.
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