- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA Plays 3/6 | Shots, Shots, Shots
Top NBA Plays 3/6 | Shots, Shots, Shots
It's almost Happy Hour on a Friday afternoon but the shots we're looking at today are field goal attempts. One of the biggest things you look for in NBA DFS is guys who at least take the shot. It doesn't mean they always go in, but you at least have to target players who are going to launch a dozen plus times a game. 4-7 from the field pays the same as 4-19 but 7 for 19 is more likely than 7 for 7.
It's a 10-gamer today, so there are going to be plenty of opportunities for launching tonight.
Tonight's DFS Headlines
Hawks @ Wizards (-3) O/U 247.5
A great game to target as it pits two of the three worst teams in defensive efficiency against each other. Atlanta won 152-133 (!) when the teams met up at the end of January, with Trae Young ($9.9k) and Bradley Beal ($10.4k) combining for 95 points.
Spurs @ Nets (-3), O/U 222.5
San Antonio flexed their defensive muscles in Tim Duncan's coaching debut on Tuesday, beating Charlotte 104-103. Gregg Popovich is an unknown for tonight as he tends to "personal business" but it should be another low scoring affair as Brooklyn was held to 79 points Wednesday against Memphis.
Thunder (-7) @ Knicks (-5), O/U 219
The Knicks have allowed 38+ fp to 4 of the past 5 SG's they've faced, which bodes well for the Thunder back court. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7k) shot 12-15 from the field the last game and the Knicks are also 21st dVp against the PG. Chris Paul has a $7.5k salary tonight as well.
Jazz @ Celtics (-2), O/U 220.5
The Jazz have won 3 in a row, but against the Wizards, Cavs, and Knicks. Oddsmakers are still calling this a close one, favoring Boston by 2 despite the C's missing Gordon Hayward (knee) and Jaylen Brown (hamstring).
Pacers (-3) @ Bulls , O/U 212.5
Indiana has won 8 straight vs. the Bulls but will be a bit shorthanded tonight as Malcolm Brogdon suffered a hip injury vs. the Bucks on Wednesday while TJ Warren also suffered a laceration on his leg and is questionable. Victor Oladipo has also missed the last two with knee soreness.
Magic (-2) @ Timberwolves , O/U 233.5
Oddsmakers are expecting a bit more points than you'd think in this matchup, with a betting total of 233.5. Then again, the T'Wolves run the 3rd fastest pace in the league and the usual stout defense of Orlando has allowed 120+ in 3 of the last 5.
Heat @ Pelicans (-2), O/U 233
Miami gets the best pace boost of tonight's slate with a +7.55 possession increase. New Orleans is playing ping-pong right now with a whopping 113.9 possessions per game over their last 3. The Heat hit a franchise record 22 three pointers last game vs. Orlando but it's Lonzo Ball ($7.8k) who has hit 14-21 from downtown the last two games.
Grizzlies @ Mavericks (-6.5), O/U 226.5
Memphis' sudden defensive prowess is going to be put to the test tonight vs. Dallas' #1 ranked squad in offensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 104, 88, 88, and 79 points the last four and won at Dallas 121-107 on February 5th despite 32/12 from Kristaps Porzingis ($9.3k).
Trail Blazers (-3.5) @ Suns, O/U 231
It feels like Portland is about to get hot as they try to make up a 3.5 game deficit on the 8 seed in the West. Damian Lillard ($9.7k) returned Wednesday and was one of four Trail Blazers starters to score 22+ points.
Bucks @ Lakers (-1), O/U 228.5
Everyone is calling this contest an NBA Finals preview but it's also a clash of the top two contenders for MVP with LeBron James ($10.9k) hosting Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11.2k). Are you paying up for these two as they square off in the late ESPN game?
Guards
Kevin Huerter DK $5.6k | FD $5k
Gotta get a lot of exposure in the Hawks @ Wizards matchup that resulted in 285 points when the teams met up at the end of January. Young and Beal are obvious "spend-uppers" but Kevin Huerter has great value at $5k on FD. Huerter was 7-11 from the field and 4-7 from three in that previous matchup vs. the Wizards' #28 ranked defense vs. the SG. Washington has allowed 35+ fp to the last 5 SG's they've faced.
Jimmy Butler DK $7.9k | FD $7.9k
There are tons of guys to spend up for tonight (LeBron, Giannis, Trae, Beal, Doncic) which could let Jimmy Butler slip under the radar a bit. His projected ownership is just 10% in a nationally televised ESPN game with the best pace boost of the night against New Orleans. The Pelicans have allowed 122+ in three straight games and rank 23rd defensively vs. the SG. Butler is antsy after going just 4-9 from the field vs. the Magic and also has 6+ assists and rebounds in three straight games.
Marcus Smart DK $6.5k | FD $6.1k
Marcus Smart has hit 6X in 3 of the last 4 and has a great chance to continue that run against Utah tonight, which is also his 🎂Birthday Game 🎂. The Jazz have allowed a minimum of 28fp to 5 straight at the SG position including to Smart, who had 17 points and 9 assists en route to a 44fp night on February 26th. Smart has taken at least 15 shots in 5 straight games which should continue with Jaylen Brown (hamstring) and Gordon Hayward (knee) out of the Celtics lineup tonight.
Forwards
Rui Hachimura DK $5.3k | FD $5.3k
Rui Hachimura has a great matchup vs. Atlanta's #28 defense vs. the PF position. The Hawks allow 33.8 fppg to PF starters, which would be over 6X Hachimura's price tonight. Hachimura is back home after 4 games on the road - 3 of which he had 15 or more real points. Hachimura sat out the last meeting with the Hawks but should also be in line for his first double digit boards game since February 5th, as Atlanta ranks 28th in rebound rate.
Domantas Sabonis DK $8.7k | FD $8.3k
Domantas Sabonis is in a great spot tonight not only because he faces Chicago's #29 dVp against the PF but also because Indiana doesn't have a lot of other options. Brogdon, Oladipo, Warren, McDermott, and Sampson could all miss tonight's game for the Pacers. Sabonis has a double-double in 7 straight games and has been in a perfect lineup in 5 of those contests.
De'Andre Hunter DK $4.9k | FD $4.6k
If you're looking for some under $5k salary savers, it's hard to go wrong in attacking the Atlanta / Washington game with a betting total of 247.5. De'Andre Hunter definitely fits the mold after he put up 25 points on 8-11 shooting vs. the Wizards at the end of January. Hunter is a very hit or miss dude, as his points the last 4 games have been 2, 18, 22, and 6 but that's what keeps ownership on the low side.
Center
Jonas Valanciunas DK $7.4k | FD $7.5k
You play Jonas Valanciunas until further notice just for the way he's been rebounding the ball lately. The Memphis big man grabbed 25, 19, 16, and 15 boards the last four while adding 13+ real points in three of those games. Dallas allowed 14 rebounds to Derrick Favors last game and 11+ to Naz Reid and Bam Adebayo over the last 4 games. If Valanciunas can add some scoring, he'll hit the 50+ fp mark for the 3rd time in the last 5 games.
____________________________________________________________________________________
You can follow me, Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports), on Twitter for more daily fantasy and sports betting talk and make sure to check out the LineStar chat.
Freeroll
The NBA freeroll contests will take place on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday on DraftKings:
1st Place: Your Choice: One month LineStar premium membership, a LineStar T-Shirt or $10 via PayPal.
Bonus: If you place 1st in the LineStar Freeroll and you are using the LineStar avatar below, you can choose 2 prizes.
Please Note: While you may enter the LineStar freeroll as often as you’d like, you can only win a prize 1 time.
Winners: DM us on Twitter with a screenshot of your win to claim your prize.
🔥 SuperDraft Multiplier Must-Play
Today's SuperDraft multiplier must-play is Jimmy Butler. Butler has a 1.35X multiplier vs. the Pelicans' #23 ranked defense vs. the SG that has allowed 122+ points in three straight games.
🚨 Bonus: Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium
Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!
Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.