Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.    

We got some more clarity on the western conference playoff picture last night.  For the most part, the teams who will be in the postseason are now settled with the exception of the eighth spot which will be decided tomorrow night.  There are some teams who could potentially move up or down in terms of seeding that we'll need to pay attention to.  I'm not going to discourage you from playing tonight but I am going to encourage you to drastically cut back on how much money you put in play.  We are literally guessing at this point what teams will do.  I myself am planning to put in a few GPP lineups mainly for fun but that will be about it.  If you're brave enough then let's take a look at tonight's slate.  The best way for us to break this down and figure out which players may be useful is to start off by understanding the big picture and what teams are playing for.  Let's go game by game for a minute:

Charlotte at Indiana: The Hornets are eliminated and Kemba Walker has been playing like he's already in the Bahamas for the past two weeks.  I'm staying away from Hornets starters but they have some bench guys that should get playing time you could consider.  Indiana is locked into the 5th seed in the east.  They should rest guys tonight.  I would only use players who are not part of their regular rotation.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: Cleveland won in New York last night and is now just a half game back of the 76ers for the 3rd seed in the east.  Both teams play tomorrow night.  If Philly wins tonight they'd be back to a full game ahead with one to play.  Plus, they have the 14 game winning streak on the line.  They will give full effort in this game.  The problem is, it could get out of hand against the Hawks which could lead to resting in the 4th quarter.  Be careful.  Atlanta is done.  They've been done for a while and have a regular rotation of reserve players that have been getting minutes for a couple of weeks.  Those guys are still in play tonight.

Boston at Washington: Boston is locked into the 2nd seed in the east and Coach Stevens already said publicly the starters would be on a minutes restriction the rest of the way.  I'm staying away from anyone who is part of the regular rotation here.  Washington is interesting.  With Miami losing last night, the Wizards are only a half game back for the 7th seed in the east.  If they win tonight they would be tied and both teams play tomorrow night as well.  I would think that Washington would do everything they can to win both games and hopefully get to the 7th seed which would set them up to play the Kyrie Irving-less Celtics instead of having to travel over the border for a date with the top-seeded Raptors.  Again, keep in mind since the Celtics are resting players this game could get out of hand so nothing says Washington wouldn't rest guys late in the game if they had a big lead.

Phoenix at Dallas: This is my favorite game of the night.  Both of these teams have long been eliminated and the Suns have already secured the worst record and most ping pong balls.  Phoenix has been playing a rotation of reserve players now for weeks.  They are in play.  Dallas will likely rest guys tonight and play mostly reserves (Harrison Barnes is already announced as sitting out) so I would stay away from starters and focus on the bench guys who stand to benefit here.

Golden State at Utah: Golden State is locked into the 2nd seed in the west and I would expect them to rest players tonight.  Utah is currently just a half game back of 3rd place in the west after Portland lost its fourth game in a row last night.  Utah and Portland play each other tomorrow night.  Unless Utah doesn't care about whether they are the 3rd or 4th seed (they should) I would expect them to go all out tonight to get the win and force a showdown against the Blazers tomorrow.

Houston at LA Lakers: Houston is locked into the top seed in the west.  They should rest players.  I'm staying away from anyone who is part of their regular rotation.  The Lakers are eliminated and have been playing mostly the reserves in heavy minutes recently.  I would avoid the regular starters here (Randle may start for example but I doubt he plays very much) and focus on the reserve players who stand to benefit.

Assuming the coaches of these teams agree with my logic above, then you've got a handful of teams that should be okay to target and some that you should just avoid completely. The pre-lock update will be posted between 5:30 pm EST and 6 pm EST so keep an eye out for that.  As always you can feel free to tag me in the NBA chat @glandry.  I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.  

Guards

Danuel House, PHO [@DAL] (DK: $5.9K, FD: $4.3K)

This is a FanDuel specific recommendation given the price difference between the two sites.  House is $1600 less on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings.  You could make an argument, especially on a day like today, to still play him on DraftKings.  He's certainly getting the minutes and he's been very productive recently but it will be much more difficult for him to pay off his salary at that price.  On FanDuel, he's pretty much a lock.  He's been taking advantage of his recent opportunities with fantasy point performances of 20, 34, 26, 18, and 39 in his last five games.  He's averaging 35.9 minutes per game and most recently played a whopping 45 minutes against the Warriors on Saturday night.  I think you could see another high 30s to low 40s in minutes tonight as even some of the Suns' reserve players, who have been playing regularly for the past couple of weeks, are starting to show on the injury report.  Josh Jackson is currently questionable.  If he misses there is basically nobody else.  House is a steal on FanDuel today and his price on DraftKings will likely drive down ownership so you can consider him there, especially if he plays 45 minutes again or anything close to it.  

Malik Monk, CHA [@IND] (DK: $5.8K, FD: $5.2K)

This feels like way too much money to pay for Monk but you can't argue with the recent results. Over his last five games, he's had a 33.6% true usage rate with averages of 20.4 points and 4.2 assists and is shooting nearly 50% from the field. He's had over 25 fantasy points in four straight games including 41 against the Magic on April 6th and 35 against these same Pacers in their last game on Sunday. On paper, Indiana is not the best matchup as they rank 3rd against point guards in average fantasy points allowed. Keep in mind, however, with the Pacers locked into their playoff spot I wouldn't expect them to play their starters full minutes (if at all) which means Monk should mostly be up against reserve players from a matchup standpoint. 

Shane Larkin (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.6K) and Jabari Bird (DK: $3.4K, $3.7K), BOS [@WAS]

I would anticipate Terry Rozier resting tonight as he'll be critical for the Celtics to have any shot of getting out of the first round of the playoffs.  Without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart, Boston is incredibly thin right now in the backcourt so I see no reason to put Rozier at risk in a meaningless game.  This should mean plenty of run today for both Larkin and Bird.  Bird's situation is interesting.  He's currently on a two-way deal and would not be available to the Celtics in the postseason unless they sign him to an actual contract for the rest of the season.  To do that, however, they would need to release another player.  So, I'd imagine they would give Bird as many minutes as he can handle tonight to either showcase himself as a player they should hang on to or for other teams to see so he can hopefully get a job next year.  In their last two games, Bird has played 24 and 22 minutes and put up 27 and 17 fantasy points.  I think we see him get at least 30 minutes tonight which means he'd be an excellent value at his price.  Larkin typically plays somewhere in the high teens to low 20s for minutes.  My guess would be he starts tonight and gets around 30 minutes himself.  He's had some success against the Wizards already this year putting up 24 fantasy points in 24 minutes off the bench back on March 14th.  Keep in mind though, Larkin did most of that damage against the Washington reserves who rank 25th in average fantasy points allowed to point guards.  Washington starters rank 5th.  This will really come down to what the Wizards decide to do.  If John Wall starts, it means the Wizards are going for the win, and Larkin would be up against Wall which is a difficult matchup.  I'd probably have more exposure to Bird in this case.  If Wall sits, then I think Larkin is the better player.  Something we'll need to watch for during the day today.

Forwards

Gerald Green, HOU [@LAL] (DK: $5.2K, FD: $4.6K)

Houston has no reason to play any of their regular starters with the top seed locked up for a while now.  This should open the door for Gerald Green to play as many minutes as he can handle.  He's played well in extended minutes recently averaging 25.7 per game and scoring in double figures in five straight.  If you've never rostered Green before I'll warn you he can be frustrating.  He can go hot and cold very quickly.  Recently, on March 27th, he was chalk due to some injuries for the Rockets, at the end of the first half despite playing full minutes he had zero fantasy points.  Zero.  Then, he was on fire in the second half and managed to salvage his night and pick up 27 fantasy points for his owners.  If he gets the start tonight the potential is through the roof.  The Lakers rank 25th on the season giving up an average of 28.1 fantasy points per game to small forwards.  This should also be a pace up game which would be beneficial to someone like Green who needs scoring opportunities to put up fantasy points.  

Dragan Bender, PHO [@DAL] (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.3K)

I recommended Bender on Sunday and he came through in a big way putting up 33 fantasy points including 14 rebounds.  He played 41 minutes that night with Marquese Chriss on the sidelines.  Chriss is once again questionable tonight so I would expect Bender (similar to Danuel House if Josh Jackson misses) to be looking at another night with the possibility of playing over 40 minutes.  In the last week, Bender is nearly averaging a double-double with 12 points and 9.7 rebounds in 31.9 minutes per game.  If he gets over 35 minutes tonight he should be a lock for another double-double.  It's a good matchup, the Mavericks rank 20th against power forwards in average fantasy points allowed this season.  The Suns are my favorite team to target tonight if Chriss and Jackson both miss in addition to all the players they've already ruled out.  Their rotation would be so thin they'd have no choice but to play everyone huge minutes.  I'll be stacking Phoenix as much as possible.  

Semi Ojeleye, BOS [@WAS] (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.5K)

Boston is a deep team and there's quite a bit of talent buried on their roster.  With all the current injuries and the need to rest players ahead of the postseason Ojeleye should get plenty of opportunity in tonight's game.  He played 27 minutes on Sunday against the Hawks putting up 26 fantasy points.  That would be a massive eight times return on investment if he could do something similar tonight.  The matchup doesn't look great but I'm just not putting much stock into the defensive metrics right now with everyone's rotations all over the place.  At this stage in the season, if you have a player with a clear path to 30 minutes, then he's under consideration, regardless of the matchup.  Since Jayson Tatum rested for a game recently, my guess would be Jaylen Brown rests tonight (along with Terry Rozier).  If that were the case we'd be looking at a three-man rotation of Bird, Larkin, and Ojeleye in the backcourt.  Ojeleye could also pick up additional minutes at small forward if Tatum were to sit later in the game.  

Centers

Rudy Gobert, UTH [vs. GSW] (DK: $8.1K, FD: $9K)

Hey! A regular player!  I mentioned in my brief game by game break down at the beginning of the article that Utah will want to win this game.  If they do, then their regular season finale tomorrow night against the Blazers will determine the 3rd and 4th seeds.  Their starters are in play.  Personally, I think most of them, especially on FanDuel, are overpriced.  But, you're going to have so much leftover money today it might make sense from a strategy standpoint to overpay for some players simply to pick up the raw points they bring with them.  We know Gobert is often limited by knee injuries and doesn't usually play full minutes.  But, we also know he has a ceiling that can reach 60 or more fantasy points.  His minutes have increased recently averaging 30 per game over the last week compared to 22.2 per game during the season.  He's a double-double machine averaging 10.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.  The Warriors are ranked 20th against opposing centers over their last ten games and Gobert himself put 51 fantasy points up on them the last team they played on March 25th.  There aren't too many places you can spend money tonight.  Gobert may very well be the most expensive player I have exposure to today.

Alex Len, PHO [@DAL] (DK: $5.7, FD: $4.6K)

Len has all the incentive in the world to want to play well in his last couple of games.  He's a free agent after this season and will be looking for Phoenix to re-sign him or a new home elsewhere in the league.  He's had a double-double in two of his last three games with 35 fantasy points in one and 29 fantasy points in the other.  The game in between he had only 12 fantasy points but got into foul trouble against Anthony Davis and only played 19 minutes.  He's a little expensive on DraftKings where his price has risen $1100 this month.  On FanDuel his price has stayed relatively flat during the month of April and you could argue he's a bit underpriced.  Assuming Marquese Chriss misses the game today Len would start at center.  I don't believe he'd be a candidate for the "40-minute club" with Bender and House but he should get at least 25 minutes with Alan Williams picking some up in a backup role.  This would be more than enough time for him to exceed value.  Dallas is 20th on the season in average fantasy points allowed to centers giving up 31.7 fantasy points per game and 10.2 rebounds per game.  Len started against them back in January and had a double-double with 12 rebounds which resulted in 34 fantasy points.  Like I said, stacking the Suns tonight.

Guillermo "Willy" Hernangomez, CHA [@IND] (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.5K)

Something standing out to me today is pricing between the two main sites is all over the place.  In some cases, FanDuel is over or underpriced and in other places, DraftKings is over or underpriced.  Guess that just speaks to how much everyone is guessing about what is going to happen today.  If you're playing on both sites keep this in mind.  You might be able to exploit a player's matchup, price and opportunity on one site but pivot to somebody else on the other.  In the case of Hernangomez, I'd say he's fairly priced on FanDuel based on his recent production but underpriced quite a bit on DraftKings.  He's currently listed as the top value there.  I think tonight is the night we see him unleashed.  His minutes have slowly crept up over his last three games playing 16, 20 and then 24 minutes.  The big giveaway is that a healthy Dwight Howard only played 23 minutes in their last game.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Howard sit tonight in a meaningless game or play no more than 20 minutes.  This would give Hernangomez a shot at 30 minutes in which case he'd be one of my favorite players on the board.  We'll have to see if we get any news before lock on the Hornet's plans.  In his last five games, he's had fantasy point performances of 25, 34, 25, 32 and 27.  He's showing a solid floor with room for upside if given the opportunity.  In two games this season off the bench he's had 32 (only 17 minutes) and 27 (24 minutes) fantasy points against the Pacers.  I like him to break 30 fantasy points again today making him an excellent value.  

Injuries 🤕

Charlotte at Indiana

Charlotte:

• OUT: Treveon Graham - SG/SF

• OUT: Dwayne Bacon - SG/SF

• OUT: Cody Zeller - PF/C

• OUT: Michael Carter-Williams - PG

• UPGRADE: Malik Monk - PG/SG, Willy Hernangomez - PF/C

Indiana:

• No injuries reported

Philadelphia at Atlanta

Philadelphia:

• OUT: Joel Embiid - C

• UPGRADE: Ersan Ilyasova - SF/PF

Atlanta:

• OUT: Dennis Schroder - PG

• OUT: Jaylen Morris - SG

• OUT: Kent Bazemore - SG/SF

• OUT: Malcolm Delaney - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Deandre Bembry - SG/SF, Isaiah Taylor - PG, Damion Lee - SG/SF

Boston at Washington

Boston:

• DTD: Guerschon Yabusele - SF/PF

• OUT: Marcus Smart - PG/SG

• OUT: Kyrie Irving - PG

• OUT: Daniel Theis - PF/C

• UPGRADE: Terry Rozier - PG/SG, Jabari Bird - SG, Semi Ojeleye - SG/SF

Washington:

• OUT: Ian Mahinmi - PF/C

• UPGRADE: Jason Smith - PF/C

Phoenix at Dallas

Phoenix:

• QUEST: Josh Jackson - SG/SF

• QUEST: Marquese Chriss - PF/C

• QUEST: Alan Williams - C

• OUT: Elfrid Payton - PG

• OUT: T.J. Warren - SF/PF

• OUT: Devin Booker - SG/SF

• OUT: Tyson Chandler - C

• UPGRADE: Tyler Ulis - PG, Danuel House - SG/SF, Shaquille Harrison - SG/SF, Dragan Bender - PF/C, Alex Len - C, Troy Daniels - SG

Dallas:

• QUEST: Salah Mejri - C

• OUT: Harrison Barnes - SF

• OUT: Dirk Nowitzki - PF/C

• OUT: J.J. Barea - PG/SG

• OUT: Nerlens Noel - C

• OUT: Wesley Matthews - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Yogi Ferrell - PG/SG, Kyle Collinsworth - PG/SG, Maxi Kleber - PF/C, Doug McDermott - SG/SF

Golden State at Utah

Golden State:

• OUT: Andre Iguodala - SG/SF

• OUT: Patrick McCaw - PG/SF

• OUT: Steph Curry - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Shaun Livingston - PG/SG, Quinn Cook - PG

Utah:

• OUT: Raul Neto - PG

• UPGRADE: N/A

Houston at LA Lakers

Houston:

• PROB: Eric Gordon - PG/SG

• OUT: Ryan Anderson - PF/C

• UPGRADE: Luc Moute - PF/C

LA Lakers:

• QUEST: Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF

• QUEST: Lonzo Ball - PG

• OUT: Brandon Ingram - SF

• OUT: Isaiah Thomas - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Josh Hart - SG/SF, Tyler Ennis - PG/SG

Yesterday's news throughout the day was crazy and I would expect more of the same today.  Hopefully, since it doesn't matter for most of these teams, they announce their plans early so we have plenty of time to adjust.  Fortunately, there are fewer games tonight than last night so it should make things easier to keep track of.  I'll see you back here between 5:30 pm EST and 6 pm EST for the pre-lock update.  Feel free to respond to this email with any feedback you have or you can always tag me @glandry in the chat rooms on LineStar.    

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