Top NBA Plays 4/14 | It's Playoff Time!

Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

Welcome back! It's playoff time! It's great to have meaningful basketball once again. If you survived the last couple of weeks of the regular season then this should be a bit easier to manage. Fewer injuries and late scratches (hopefully), tighter rotations and easier to predict minutes. The hard part? Value will be more difficult to come by (although not so much today as we'll talk about in the article) which means fewer ways to differentiate with these smaller playoff slates. Don't get cute and try to force in bad plays just to be different if you're playing in tournaments. It may only take one or two lesser owned (not even low owned) players to set you apart. If you find an option you like don't overthink it. With that said, let’s get to work!

I won't be able to do a pre-lock update today but there shouldn't be a ton of surprises. As always you can feel free to tag me in the NBA chat @glandry. I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.

Guards

Damian Lillard, POR [vs. NOP] (DK: $9.2K, FD: $9.8K)

This game is arguably the best one of the night for fantasy purposes. It has the highest O/U at 217 and the closest spread at 5.5 points in favor of the Blazers. This is a pace up game in which he should play close to 40 minutes. At a price of under $10K on both sites there is plenty of room to exceed value. The last time he faced the Pelicans he put up 72.8 fantasy points. New Orleans ranked 20th during the regular season in average fantasy points allowed to point guards. Don't overthink this one. He'll be popular but it should be worth it.

Could he put up 70+ again today in this spot?

John Wall (DK: $8.5K, FD: $9.4K) and Bradley Beal (DK: $7K and FD: $7.9K), WAS [@TOR]

Wall would easily be $10K had he not spent a good portion of the season on the sidelines. Beal's price has decreased because his production will take a hit with Wall playing full minutes again but I actually think it came down a little too far. This is far from an ideal matchup but it's the playoffs and that should be expected. Toronto is an excellent defensive team ranking 11th in average fantasy points allowed to point guards and 5th against shooting guards. Wall never played the Raptors this season so he's a bit of a wildcard. Beal, on the other hand, had some success against the Raptors scoring 49, 31, 53 and 39 fantasy points against them this season. Again, the absence of Wall helped with this, but still, we know Beal is a player capable of putting up big nights. The Wall/Beal stack is in play as they are listed as one of our top assist combos. It's worth noting that Otto Porter Jr is currently questionable. If he were to miss then both of these guys would see a slight usage increase.

This discount won't last much longer

Kyle Lowry (DK: $7.3K, FD: $6.8K) and DeMar DeRozan (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7K), TOR [vs. WAS]

Similar to Wall/Beal on the other side of this matchup, these guys are way too cheap, plain and simple. With the Raptors having the one seed locked up for an extended period of time both of them were playing steady but not big minutes down the stretch. DeRozan, in particular, averaged 28.8 minutes per game over the final month and only 22.3 minutes per game over the final week. Both of them should be pushed back over 30-minutes a night once again during the playoffs. Lowry's matchup isn't ideal with John Wall being a strong defender and the Wizards ranking fourth in average fantasy points allowed to point guards. Remember though, this is the playoffs, for the most part, the matchups are going to be more difficult. The price and the opportunity are more important in this case. Lowry did still manage to put up 53 fantasy points against them back on February 1st so it's certainly within his range of outcomes to have a big night. DeRozan has a bit easier path as the one weakness for the Wizards was the shooting guard position where they ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed. He had 33, 59, 45 and 43 fantasy points in their four meetings this season. He'd offer excellent value today if he can find similar fantasy production. Playing these guys together in a stack is absolutely in play as we have them listed as a top assist combo. Take advantage of the lower prices while you can.

One of the best values on the board today

Forwards

LaMarcus Aldridge, SA [@GS] (DK: $9.7K, FD: $10.2K)

He's almost literally the entire offense for this team and just continues to shoulder the load with a 26.5% true usage rate. He was excellent against Golden State during the regular season averaging a double-double with 26.8 points and 11 rebounds per game. This resulted in fantasy point performances of 49, 38, 54 and 57 (a double-double in three out of four). This will be one of the better first-round series. San Antonio is certainly no stranger to the playoff atmosphere and Golden State is still missing a key contributor on offense in Steph Curry. I like the Spurs to keep these games close and potentially push this series down to the wire. Aldridge will be a major reason they are able to do this.

The floor/ceiling combo with him is unmatched

Draymond Green, GS [vs. SA] (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7K)

Green's price is just leaping off the page at me. Two weeks ago, on April 1st he was $9K on FanDuel and $8.9K on DraftKings. His end of season production, when Golden State had the two seed locked and was desperately trying to get healthy again, likely contributed to his rapid fall in price. Unfortunately, this means it won't last very long so we should take advantage while we can. Green is typically not a scorer, he gets most of his fantasy points through rebounds and assists. I think we'll see an uptick in scoring during this series as he'll need to help shoulder some of the additional offensive load without Steph Curry on the floor with him. He had some success against the Spurs this season with fantasy point outings of 32, 48 and 53 (in their last meeting he only played 12 minutes so I'm not counting that). In two of those three, he recorded a double-double once with 12 rebounds and the other with 11 assists.

Outside shot at a triple-double with the rebounds and assists

Al-Farouq Aminu (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.8K) and Evan Turner (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.5K)

Here are your value players of the slate. Both of these guys are a great way to get inexpensive exposure to the Blazers who have the highest implied total on the board today. I mentioned the pace of this game earlier in the article which should lead to additional fantasy opportunities on both sides. The Pelicans rank 23rd in defensive efficiency against power forwards and 19th against small forwards. Turner has not done much with his increased playing time since Moe Harkless was sidelined with an injury. But, his price has come down since the initial hike from getting the starting job, and it's hard to ignore an under $4K player who will be starting on a four-game playoff slate. He did have some decent games against the Pelicans this season including 31 and 26 fantasy points. New Orleans is a great matchup allowing 28.3 fantasy points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards. Aminu also had success in this matchup this season with 42 and 36 fantasy points in their last two meetings. The entire Blazers team is firmly in play today but with so much attention likely going to Lillard (and Jusuf Nurkic on DraftKings which we'll get to soon) I like these guys to help provide some salary relief tonight if you need it.

Solid salary relief candidate

Centers

Hassan Whiteside, MIA [@PHI] (DK: $7.2K, FD: $7K)

Center is very weak on FanDuel, which is often the case, as players are only allowed one position of eligibility. On DraftKings, where LaMarcus Aldridge and Anthony Davis are also considered centers it opens up some more options. I'm gambling that Whiteside will get to play additional minutes now that we are in the playoffs but I'd prefer to wait for a game to see what happens if I can. Late in the regular season, Whiteside burned me in a prime spot against the Nets because he only played 19 minutes. He complained about his playing time after this game, was fined by the team, played 28 minutes the next game, and then came back down to around 20 minutes per game the rest of the way. So, I don't know what to expect. The Heat also have a deep bench and will likely roll ten deep in their rotation even in the playoffs. This will be something to pay attention to today. Whiteside had some good fantasy production against the 76ers this season with 21, 38, 46 and 43 fantasy points per game (the 21 point game was in only 18 minutes). If we get any kind of clarity that Whiteside will see an increase in minutes he's too cheap on both sites for the potential upside here.

Will he get the minutes? I hope so!

Jusuf Nurkic, POR [vs. NOP] (DK: $6.6K, FD: $8K)

FanDuel really got aggressive with their playoff pricing today. Normally, FanDuel is softer and it's typically easier to find players who are underpriced. Today, I'm finding players everywhere on FanDuel with increased prices and DraftKings seems to be priced down. Nurkic is $1400 less on DraftKings today which gives us yet another opportunity to roster a player from the team with the highest implied total for short money. You can even consider him on FanDuel given how weak this position is but the price is certainly less appealing. The Pelicans are giving up 9.3 rebounds per game to centers so a double-double is definitely a possibility. Nurkic put up 37 and 46 fantasy points the last two times these teams met. I'll have heavy exposure today.

Excellent value today on DraftKings

Marcin Gortat, WAS [@TOR] (DK: $4.8K, FD: $4.7K)

We should expect an increase in minutes for players like Gortat as teams will try to keep their starters on the floor as often as possible in playoff games. Gortat isn't an exciting name, but he's inexpensive and the floor is solid. In four meetings this season, he had fantasy point performances of 29, 41, 23 and 24. Toronto was ranked 18th in average fantasy points allowed to opposing centers during the regular season. The ceiling is low, Gortat is typically more of a cash game player, but if he hits the higher end of his floor, while also opening up additional salary for you, he could definitely be worthy of a roster spot in an otherwise weak position today.

Solid floor against Toronto over the past few seasons

Injuries 🤕

Washington:

New Orleans:

  • No injuries reported

Portland:

  • OUT: Moe Harkless - SG/SF

  • UPGRADE: Evan Turner - SG/SF

This is shaping up to be a good opening NBA playoff slate. A lot of the price decreases on some bigger name players should lead to ownership being spread out more than normal on a four-game slate. As a reminder, I won't be able to do a pre-lock update today but there shouldn't be a ton of news to begin with. You'll still need to pay attention but it will be nothing like what we've seen the last couple of weeks. Good luck today! We'll be back here tomorrow for the four-game Sunday slate! Tag me on chat @glandry with any questions or feedback! Thank you for reading!

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