Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

I slept in this morning, a rare thing for me, thinking I had all kinds of time to get my article done. I woke to realize the main slate locks at 1 pm EST! Ahh! So, I'm a little later with this than I'd like to be for a slate that starts this early but hopefully it still gives you enough time to read and make adjustments if you find anything noteworthy in here today. The slate brings us lower implied totals than yesterday with Boston and Milwaukee just barely cracking the 200 point mark. There's also a double-digit spread, rare for the playoffs, but understandable given the Rockets have had the top-seed locked up for well over a month and the Timberwolves needed overtime on the final game of the season to just make the playoffs. The large spread isn't going to factor much into my decision. This is the playoffs and the starters are going to get their minutes. Remember, don't overthink it during the playoffs. If you have a player you like then use them. Don't force in bad plays to try and be different because the slates are smaller. Alright, enough talk, we've got work to do.

As always you can feel free to tag me in the NBA chat @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry. I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.

Guards

Russell Westbrook, OKC [@UTA] (DK: $11.2K, FD: $11.9K)

We've got a few high-priced players to pay up for today and you'll likely only be able to fit in one. I've been playing around with roster construction this morning and there's not a lot of great value to be found. I was able to do it but I didn't love the lineups. The mid-tier is fairly strong so a more balanced approach seems like the way to go. Based on that, we'll need to prioritize the expensive players. On paper, looking at the matchup and average fantasy points allowed, it's Harden. The Timberwolves are weak defensively, particularly in the backcourt. But, if you look at their meetings this season Harden was less productive (at least by James Harden standards) than usual. He averaged 27.3 points per game but shot only 38% from the field. Westbrook, meanwhile, played well against the Jazz this season. If four meetings, he had fantasy point performances of 34, 70, 58 and 58. In two of the four games he had a triple-double and in all four games, he had a double-double with double-digit rebounds. I'm not saying Harden is a bad play, I'm just saying Westbrook to me feels a bit safer as he has more avenues to put fantasy points on the board. His floor feels stronger but their ceilings feel similar. I also think Westbrook will be lower owned today with people shying away because of the difficult matchup with Utah.

Donovan Mitchell (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.8K) and Ricky Rubio (DK: $5.9K, FD: $6.5K), UTA [vs. OKC]

I don't love Rubio today I want to make that clear. He had a down season and struggled in his matchups with the Thunder this season putting out 28, 21, 8 and 16 fantasy points in each game. He also averaged as many turnovers as he did assists. Not good right? So, why bother bringing him up? He's cheap. Very cheap, and we know he is a player who is capable of putting up big games. His ceiling is about 50 fantasy points, with multiple 47 and 48 fantasy point performances throughout this season. Oklahoma City is also a favorable matchup, despite Rubio's history, allowing 33.4 fantasy points and 6.4 assists per game to point guards. On a four-game slate I think you can make a strong argument to roster him. His teammate, Donovan Mitchell, on the other hand is one of my favorite players on the board. He had some big games against the Thunder this season with 16, 48 and 40 fantasy points. He only played 22 minutes in the game he had 16 fantasy points and that was in the first month of the season when the Jazz didn't realize how good a player they had just yet. It's also worth noting that all these games were before Andre Roberson, an elite defender, got hurt. Mitchell will likely now face off with the likes of Corey Brewer and Russell Westbrook who are much, much weaker defenders than Roberson. The Thunder ranked 29th in the league in average fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. I'll have heavy exposure to Mitchell today.

Darren Collison, IND [@CLE] (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.5K)

Speaking of favorite players on the board. Darren Collison owned the Cavs this season to the point where Cleveland Coach Tyronn Lue acknowledged it saying "He's hurt us this year, he's been a tough guy for us to cover." Despite the obvious talent, Collison is a guy I've had a difficult time rostering during the regular season cause his minutes can be unpredictable. He averaged 24.3 minutes per game during the regular season. Not enough to make us want to invest too heavily in him on a regular basis. I would expect this to be less of an issue during the playoffs, however, as the Pacers will need to throw everything they have at the Cavs to have a chance in this series. If we assume this to be true, and Collison will play 30 or more minutes per game, then he's way too cheap for this matchup. Cleveland ranked 30th (that's right dead last) in average fantasy points allowed to point guards over their final ten games. Let's remember Cleveland was still playing hard through those final weeks of the regular season fighting for their playoff seeding. Collison had fantasy point performances of 46, 17, 34 and 47 against them this season. The 17 fantasy point performance was in 22 minutes. The other three games were in 30 or more minutes which is what I would expect him to get today. He's arguably the best value on the board today on both sites.

Forwards

Jimmy Butler, MIN [@HOU] (DK: $7.8K, FD: $8.7K)

Jimmy was finally unleashed during the regular season finale and he came through for us in a big way scoring 48 fantasy points in 42 minutes in their playoff-clinching win over Denver. Despite this performance, his price still hasn't come up enough to justify his potential production. On FanDuel, his price was raised $900 and on DraftKings it was only raised $400. Remember, this is a player who is typically priced in the mid $9K range on both sites. It's not a great matchup with the Rockets ranking 6th in the regular season against small forwards but we know good matchups will not always be easy to come by during the playoffs. This is more about the price and possible upside than about the risk of the matchup. The downside here, as our good friend @sixsense has pointed out in the Jimmy Butler chat conversation, is Butler is the best defender on the T-Wolves which means he'll have the responsibility of covering James Harden. This can be exhausting and could potentially take away from his offensive production. Minnesota is going to need him on both ends of the floor to have any chance in this series so I'm still planning to roster him today as I don't think the price will stay this low much longer, but this was a really good point and I wanted to mention it. It definitely increases the risk.

Jayson Tatum, BOS [vs. MIL] (DK: $6.2K, FD: $6.6K)

I'm expecting BIG things from the Celtics superstar rookie in this first round series against the Bucks. Everyone is writing off Boston now that Kyrie Irving will not return this season and I think that's a huge mistake. This Celtics team is loaded with talent even without key players like Irving, Hayward, and Smart who are all out for the rest of the season. Most years Tatum would have been a lock for Rookie of the Year honors, he just happened to be in an outstanding class with players like Ben Simmons and Donovan Mitchell who all played lights out this season. Regardless, the Celtics will be leaning on Tatum to provide a spark and get them through this first round. It's a great matchup, as the Bucks are weak defensively against forwards and centers (and very strong against guards). They ranked 28th against small forwards in average fantasy points allowed this season giving up 31.3 fantasy points per game. In the current Celtics starting five, it's Tatum who sees the largest usage increase at 2.62% accounting for nearly 17 fantasy points per game. I like this series to come down to the wire and I think ultimately Tatum will be a key factor in whether or not Boston can pull it off.

Jeff Green, CLE [vs. IND] (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.6K)

A risky yet viable option today is Jeff Green who will start at power forward for the Cavs but comes with a price tag below $5K on both sites. It's an excellent matchup with the Pacers ranked 22nd against power forwards in fantasy points allowed giving up 29.5 per game. Green didn't have any big games against them this season with fantasy point performances of 24, 12, 15 and 19 in their four meetings. But, he never played more than 24 minutes in any of those games. As we've talked about, the rotations in the playoffs will tighten up and lead to increased minutes for the starters and a couple of key bench players on each team. Green should get above average minutes giving him the opportunity to be productive. I like him as a potential salary relief option on a slate that doesn't have much value.

Centers

Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN [@HOU] (DK: $9.6K, FD: $10.5K)

Towns played exceptionally well against the Rockets this season despite the tough matchup. Houston ranked 9th in average fantasy points allowed to centers and Clint Capela has a defensive real plus-minus rating of 3.07, good for 11th among centers. Despite this, Towns averaged 23.8 points and 14.8 rebounds per game against them in four games. This lead to fantasy point performances of 63, 65, 42 and 48. He had a double-double in each of those games including 18 rebounds in their most recent matchup on March 18th. An interesting stat provided by LineStar today, in six blowout games where the Timberwolves were heavy underdogs, Towns averaged 57.38 fantasy points. Houston is currently an eleven point favorite ahead of this game. I wouldn't put much weight into that but it was interesting enough to share. This game also has the highest O/U on the slate at 216.5 despite the large spread. This means there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around. Towns will need a monster game if they will have any shot at keeping this close against the top-seeded Rockets.

Clint Capela, HOU [vs. MIN] (DK: $6.4K, FD: $7.7K)

The aforementioned Capela is also in play tonight. While I expect Towns to have a monster offensive game this doesn't take away from the fact he's a poor defender. Minnesota ranked 23rd this season in average fantasy points allowed to the position giving up 32.9 fantasy points per game. Capela had some of his best fantasy outings of the season in this matchup with 32, 33, 46 and 42 fantasy points per game. He recorded a double-double in three of those four matchups. He's very underpriced today on DraftKings with a price tag that's $1300 less than it is on FanDuel. He's in consideration on FanDuel as well but the price is not as appealing. He's an inexpensive and potentially lower owned way to get some exposure to the Rockets who have the highest implied total on the slate today.

Al Horford, BOS [vs. MIL] (DK: $6K, FD: $7.4K)

Hordford is a steal on DraftKings today at $6K. That's $1400 less than he is on FanDuel. We know the Bucks struggles against frontcourt players, ranking 25th on the season and 23rd over their last ten games in average fantasy points allowed to power forwards. I mentioned Tatum as someone the Celtics would need to lean on but that pressure will be felt even more by Horford who is now the veteran leader on this young Celtics team. He was very consistent this season against Milwaukee with fantasy point performances of 39, 43, 44 and 37. At his price on DraftKings, similar production would mean a six to seven times return on your investment. Even on FanDuel, he would have averaged around five times return on investment at his current price. I like Horford and Tatum to both take over this game for the Celtics. I'm not writing him up but Greg Monroe deserves an honorable mention here. He'll be a big part of the Celtics playoff rotation. He should get the needed minutes and will provide the offensive off the bench for Boston. He's an excellent pivot off Horford, who will likely be high owned today, especially on DraftKings.

Injuries 🤕

Milwaukee at Boston

Milwaukee:

• No injuries reported

Boston:

• OUT: Marcus Smart: PG/SG

• OUT: Kyrie Irving: PG

• UPGRADE: Terry Rozier: PG/SG

Indiana at Cleveland

Indiana:

• No injuries reported

Cleveland:

• No injuries reported

Utah at Oklahoma City

Utah:

• No injuries reported

• QUEST: Corey Brewer: SG/SF

• OUT: Alex Abrines: SF/SF

• UPGRADE: Jerami Grant - SF/PF

Minnesota at Houston

Minnesota:

• No injuries reported

Houston:

• DTD: Ryan Anderson: PF/C

• OUT: Luc Mbah a Moute: PF/C

• UPGRADE: Gerald Green: SG/SF

Another solid playoff slate. The most interesting decision to me is first, what's your priority list for the expensive players? Second, do you think there's enough value to fit more than one in? Personally, I don't, but I tend to lean more on balanced lineups than others who are always trying to jam in the stars and scrubs approach whenever possible. In the playoffs, however, this can be risky cause we know the rotations will be tighter and some of those bench guys you might have taken shots on during the regular season come with increased risk now. I'm not planning a pre-lock update since the slate actually starts in just a few hours anyway. Just pay attention to the news. I think the most surprising news we got yesterday (which was actually just after lock if I remember correctly) was that Andre Iguodala was starting at point guard for the Warriors. Other than that, it was pretty quiet. I think we'll see mostly the same today. Good luck! I'm sticking to NBA all this week as we are going to cover NBA playoffs at least through the first round until the slates get to the point where they become unplayable. Tag me on chat @glandry with any questions or feedback! Thank you for reading!

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