Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

We transition from a really bad two-game slate to a much better three-game slate today. Unlike last night, which featured two games between teams who are unevenly matched (although Miami surprised us all), tonight features three games where the first game of each series was decided by single digits including an overtime game. Before we get started let's first, just like yesterday, take a quick look at how the minutes were distributed to these players in game one. It's only a one-game sample size so we can't draw any concrete conclusions, but it may provide some insight into how the playoff rotations will operate.

Milwaukee at Boston

Milwaukee:

• Kris Middleton: 47

• Giannis Antetokounmpo: 45

• John Henson: 37

• Tony Snell, Eric Bledsoe: 33

• Malcolm Brogdon: 32

• Jason Terry: 18

• Jabari Parker: 15

Boston:

• Jaylen Brown: 46

• Al Horford, Jayson Tatum: 44

• Terry Rozier: 40

• Marcus Morris: 35

• Shane Larkin: 16

• Aron Baynes: 15

• Semi Ojeleye: 14

• Greg Monroe: 10

Washington at Toronto

Washington:

• Bradley Beal: 41

• John Wall: 39

• Markieff Morris: 38

• Otto Porter Jr: 32

• Marcin Gortat: 29

• Mike Scott: 27

• Kelly Oubre Jr: 16

• Tomas Satoransky: 12

Toronto:

• Kyle Lowry: 38

• DeMar Derozan: 35

• Serge Ibaka: 33

• Delon Wright: 25

• Jonas Valanciunas: 23

• O.G. Anunoby: 22

• C.J. Miles: 19

• Pascal Siakam: 16

• Jakob Poeltl: 15

New Orleans at Portland

New Orleans:

• Anthony Davis: 41

• Nikola Mirotic: 40

• Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday: 39

• E'Twuan Moore: 27

• Ian Clark: 25

• Darius Miller: 14

• Damian Lillard: 42

• C.J. McCollum: 38

• Evan Turner, Al Aminu: 30

• Jusuf Nurkic: 25

• Zach Collins: 22

• Ed Davis: 20

• Pat Connaughton: 18

• Shabazz Napier: 14

Some observations from the above information. First, the Celtics and Bucks both went small. John Henson got the majority of the center minutes while Tyler Zeller played only four minutes and Thon Maker was a healthy scratch for the Bucks. On the Celtics, Al Horford got the most minutes at center with Marcus Morris getting 35 off the bench. Meanwhile, Baynes and Monroe played 15 and 10 minutes respectively. Second observation, these teams ran much tighter rotations then the teams who played last night. Only the Blazers had more than one bench player with at least 20 minutes. The assumption here is it's because these games were very close whereas last night contained teams that had been previously blown out in their game ones. So, if we believe these games will be competitive again, then we can assume similar, tightened up rotations. Alright, now that we've got a look at the potential rotations, we will once again focus (as much as possible) on value/reserve players you can use to mix and match with the higher priced, more obvious starters on this small slate. Let's get to work!

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry. I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.

Guards

Delon Wright, TOR [vs. WAS] (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.1K)

Wright was outstanding in game one with 18 points and 4 assists in 25 minutes off the bench. This resulted in a fantasy point performance of 33 on both sites. Fred VanFleet is still questionable for tonight's game. Obviously, if VanFleet comes back this presents a bit of an issue in terms of minutes. I still think, given how good both of these guys are defensively, even if both play they'll get their share of minutes. Wright might see a slight decrease compared to game one but it should still be enough to allow him to hit value. If VanFleet plays, then I like both of these guys as value options (I think the field would shy away from Wright in this case so he could be sneaky). If VanFleet misses than Wright would likely be chalk today. Remember, the Wizards bench is incredibly thin, allowing 18 fantasy points per game to reserve point guards. When John Wall isn't on the floor Wright should have plenty of easy looks to put up some points even if his minutes come down a bit.

Malcolm Brogdon, MIL [@BOS] (DK: $4.3, FD: $4.5)

I'm really hoping the Vegas line in this game causes people to shy away since the O/U is so low at 197.5. That's probably wishful thinking since it's only a three-game slate but we can hope. This series is going to be a brutal fight to the end and I think all of these games are going to come down to the last couple of possessions exactly like game one. Brogdon is arguably my favorite player on the board today. Surprisingly, since he was supposedly still on a minutes' limit, he and starter Eric Bledsoe played nearly identical minutes, but Brogdon was much more efficient putting up 26 fantasy points compared to Bledsoe's 15 (at almost half of the cost). There seems to be no concern about Brogdon's injury and it should be all systems go for the rest of the playoffs. What I'll be interested in today is where this game one performance lands Brogdon in the rotation for game two. Could he start in place of Bledsoe? Unlikely, since Bledsoe has been solid despite a poor game one. The more likely scenario is Brogdon starts in place of Tony Snell who played 33 minutes in game one and had just 2 points and 3 rebounds to show for it. Regardless of what they end up doing with the starting five, Brogdon will get his minutes, he's a very talented player that fell of people's radars when he got hurt this season and he's way too cheap right now. Jump on while it lasts.

Ian Clark, NOP [@POR] (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.8K)

There's some pretty good value at guard on this slate tonight as Clark is another player who should have a clear path to at least 20 minutes and is priced near minimum salary on both sites. In game one, Clark played 25 minutes scoring 10 points with a rebound, an assist, and a steal which resulted in 17 fantasy points. Not a huge fantasy number, I know, but when you consider his salary it was about four times return on investment on FanDuel and five times return on DraftKings. Ideally, we'd like a little more than that if we are looking to win a GPP but he certainly wouldn't have killed our lineups with that return either. Tonight, his price dropped $200 on FanDuel and remained the same on DraftKings, so we still have plenty of room to exceed value in this spot. I like him today as a large field GPP option that should go lower owned with a shot to get you five to six times return and open up some salary for other key players on your roster.

Forwards

Marcus Morris, BOS [@MIL] (DK: $5.8K, FD: $5.5K)

As we pointed out in the minute's breakdown above Morris was the only player off the bench for the Celtics that got more than 20 minutes. He's been asked to step up all season off a bench that was supposed to include Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier. But, those two were forced into regular starting roles with all the injuries the Celtics have suffered this season. Morris playing big minutes and providing the spark on offense for that second unit may be the key to this series for the Celtics. In game one, Morris played 35 minutes and scored 21 points with 7 rebounds and an assist which resulted in 29 fantasy points. We know Milwaukee is weak at defending the frontcourt ranking 29th against starting power forwards and 25th against reserve power forwards over their last ten games. I'd expect the small ball lineups to continue throughout this series which means plenty of minutes and opportunity for Morris. This will likely be the last game we get him still priced under $6K.

Mike Scott, WAS [@TOR] (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.5K)

A weak bench has been an issue that has plagued the Wizards for a few seasons now. It will be on display more than ever throughout this series as the Raptors have the opposite problem. Mike Scott is the one bench player who has the ability to provide any kind of offense for them from the second unit. In game one, Scott played 27 minutes and had 14 points on 7-10 shooting and 3 rebounds. The 17 fantasy points is a reasonable return on his salary which stayed the same on both sites for today's slate. The downside here, I'm not convinced Scott will continue to see that many minutes in the series. The Wizards' centers got into foul trouble early in this game forcing them to play smaller lineups that gave Scott extra opportunities. I think he still sees a fair amount of minutes but I'd speculate it's closer to 20 on most nights instead of closer to 30 like in game one. This is purely a guess on my part but he did only average 17.4 minutes per game this season. He has the ability, even if he were only to get 20 minutes, to reach value at his current salary, but he's a large field GPP flyer for me only.

Ed Davis, POR [vs. NOP] (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.5K)

The value on today's slate is so much better than yesterday. Davis missed a handful of games toward the end of the regular season with an ankle injury. He returned for the final two regular-season games, playing just 15 and 17 minutes in each, to help get him back into game shape. In game one of this series, he played 20 minutes and was very productive with 6 points, 13 rebounds and a blocked shot leading to 24 fantasy points. That's an outstanding return given the salary. For tonight, his price stayed the same on FanDuel (minimum salary) and only increased $100 on DraftKings. He's a player with a low floor but also a 40 point ceiling making his current salary a steal, especially on a small slate like this. It's not a great matchup. He'll likely run into Anthony Davis from time to time and the Pelicans actually ranked 2nd against reserve power forwards over their final ten games of the season. But the ceiling and price here are too hard to ignore. Now that he has a few games under his belt after his injury I like him to play at least 20 minutes again tonight.

Centers

Al Horford, BOS [@MIL] (DK: $7.3K, FD: $8K)

I'm going to deviate from my original plan of focusing on all reserve players because there isn't much to choose from at center. You'll have no choice than to go with one of the more highly owned starters here and then try to differentiate elsewhere. The good news, we can actually pick from a couple of options tonight that we'll be (somewhat) confident in. Hopefully, if you played last night, you didn't get cute and try to find an alternative to JaVale McGee. He was literally your only option. Sometimes you just have to take what the slate gives you and move on. For tonight, we'll start with Al Horford who remember is center eligible on FanDuel despite very clearly being a power forward on this team. Horford was lights out in game one. As expected, he stepped up in a big way as the veteran presence on this young team. He played 44 minutes (remember this game went to overtime) and had a double-double with 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists. What's most impressive? His 24 points were on just 5-8 from the field. He went 13 of 14 from the free throw line. He even chipped in three blocks and a couple of steals. All of this lead to a 57 fantasy point performance and nearly ten times return on investment on DraftKings where he was absurdly underpriced. Deservedly so, he got a price increase on both sites. On DraftKings he's up $1300 and on FanDuel he's up $600. Coach Stevens said the Celtics would "ride" Horford this series so despite the price increase I'm still planning to make him my highest owned player today.

Jusuf Nurkic, POR [vs. NOP] (DK: $7K, FD: $8.3K)

I'd expect Horford to be pretty high owned so if you wanted to pivot in tournaments you could look to Nurkic as an option. It makes sense on DraftKings since he's slightly less expensive. The problem is, on FanDuel he's actually $300 more than Horford so I'm not sure pivoting to a more expensive player who's in a more difficult matchup just to get the lower ownership is wise. You might have to just lock in Horford and move on if playing on FanDuel tonight unless you go with a value option which we'll get to next. Nurkic was solid in game one with a double-double consisting of 11 points and 11 rebounds leading to 30 fantasy points. He should benefit from the pace in this game as the Blazers have the highest positive pace differential that should result in increased fantasy point opportunities. We know Nurkic can be a volatile player. In their now five meetings this year with the Pelicans his range of fantasy point outcomes has been as low as 13 and as high as 46. Because of this, he's almost always a GPP only player for me. You can definitely make a case tonight, especially on DraftKings, to pivot here.

Marcin Gortat, WAS [@TOR] (DK: $4.8, FD: $4.3)

I'm encouraged that Gortat got 29 minutes in the first game of this series. For the most part, approaching 30 minutes was rare for him, only averaging 25.3 per game this season. Despite the minutes, he wasn't overly productive, with only 12 points and 6 rebounds leading to 18 fantasy points. The good news is this caused his price to drop $400 on FanDuel and stay flat on DraftKings. So, he still has room to reach value especially if we think he'll continue to see increased minutes in the playoffs. We talked in Saturday's article about how Gortat had success against the Raptors this season. In fact, his 41 fantasy point performance against them back on November 19th was his highest all season except for the very first game of the year, against the 76ers, where he put up 46 fantasy points. He's capable of a ceiling game though they are rare and his floor is pretty steady. This is far from a glowing endorsement if you couldn't tell but if you were looking to pay down at center today he's really your only option.

Injuries 🤕

New Orleans:

• No injuries reported

Portland:

• DTD: Moe Harkless: SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Evan Turner: SG/SF

Much better slate than yesterday! There are some legitimate value options with clear paths to minutes that could provide you with a nice return and some salary relief. As far as the stud players go, Anthony Davis is expensive but he was downright filthy in game one and he's owned the Blazers this season. John Wall will continue to be a priority for me until his salary fully recovers. He's still under $10K on both sites and should easily push 50+ fantasy points per night. Damian Lillard was disappointing in game one but he's still Dame. He's a bit underpriced, the ceiling is massive, it's a pace up game and he'll play around 40 minutes. Last, but not least, Antetokounmpo has dominated the Celtics all season and I don't expect that to stop in the playoffs. The Celtics/Bucks, despite the low total, is my favorite game today. I think we'll see a repeat of game one with a fight to the bitter end and the possibility of overtime. As for my approach, I'm prioritizing Antetokounmpo and Davis over Lillard and Wall. The guard position is much deeper today. We talked about Brogdon and Wright as value options, VanFleet could return, plus you have Bledsoe, Rondo, and Lowry as mid-range options (Lowry is still too cheap and the field is likely to forget about him after a poor game one). I'm most likely going to use that group as my pool for guards and then do my best to pay up for Davis and/or Antetokounmpo and then lock in Horford at center. Good luck today! I'm sticking to NBA all this week as we are going to cover the playoffs at least through the first round until the slates get to the point where they become unplayable. Tag me on chat @glandry with any questions or feedback! Thank you for reading!

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