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- Top NBA Plays 4/18 | Using the Odds to Decipher Playoff Success
Top NBA Plays 4/18 | Using the Odds to Decipher Playoff Success
Wednesday's NBA playoff games played out pretty much as oddsmakers expected. The Pacers and Celtics were in a low scoring affair and the Bucks and Rockets both posted blowout 20+ wins. Being able to pinpoint how a game is going to play out is half the battle in DFS success - the other being finding out who is responsible for the contest going that way. Three more games on tap tonight, let's see what the odds are telling us about the outcome:
Tonight's DFS Headlines
Each of the three games on Thursday sees a series that is tied 1-1 with the lower seeds returning back to their own city after having stole home court advantage. Both the Spurs and Warriors blew big leads in Game 2 vs. the Nuggets and Clippers respectively. In the other game, the Nets will try to go up 2-1 vs. the Sixers. There's a lot of star power on tonight's card, let's see what kind of value is out there:
Guards
Lou Williams (DK: $7400 FD: $4100 Y! $29) Ownership: 17.76%
Lou Williams was feeling it on Monday as he helped the Clippers outscore the Warriors 85-58 in the 2nd half of game 2. Williams is averaging over 30 points and 10 assists through the first two games of the series and is back at home today. LAC is still a big home underdog (GSW -8), but Williams is playing with great confidence.
Derrick White (DK: $4900 FD: $5400 Y! $17) Ownership 12.04%
Derrick White has been very efficient so far in the series vs. Denver. He shot 7-10 in Saturday's win and 7-11 in Monday's loss. Both of those games were at the Pepsi Center, and White should get a boost being back home today. There's salary relief and potential for 30+ fantasy points, which makes White a solid play for tonight's card.
Gary Harris (DK: $5100 FD: $5800 Y! $13) Ownership 15.72%
There's also good value on Gary Harris for today's game 3, as he's shown some real initiative for Denver so far in the series. Harris has shot 7-12 and 10-16 so far vs. the Spurs, going for 20+ points in each game. He doesn't do a lot of secondary scoring (1 apg, 4 rpg in series) but is averaging 30 fantasy points per game so far in games 1 and 2... and comes pretty cost efficient.
Forwards
DeMar DeRozan (DK: $7600 FD: $9100 Y!: $35) Ownership 30.15%
That's not a horrible price tag on DK for DeMar DeRozan, as he's gone for over 43 fantasy points in each of the first two games vs. the Nuggets and both games were on the road. DeRozan has 19 and 17 field goal attempts at the Pepsi Center and also has a 50fp and 36fp night in his only two home games so far in April.
Caris Levert (DK: $5400 FD: $5600 Y!: $19) Ownership 13.1%
The following is some hard hitting sports insight - the Nets want to win tonight. When Brooklyn won Game 1 in their series vs. the Sixers, Caris Levert went 8-18 and was +18 in 23 minutes. The Nets fell 123-145 in Game 2 with Levert going just 3-8. Brooklyn would be wise to incorporate Levert into the game plan like they did in Game 1, but he has still averaged 18 points and 4 boards so far vs. Philadelphia - and is back home on Thursday.
Danilo Gallinari (DK: $6900 FD: $7900 Y! $32) Ownership 15.56%
There's some definite upside in Danilo Gallinari as the Clippers / Warriors series shifts back to the Staples Center. Gallinari looked a bit nervous in Game 1, shooting just 4-14. He was much more efficient during the Game 2 comeback, shooting 8-17 including 3-6 from beyond the arc while grabbing 4 rebounds and dishing out 6 assists for a 42 point fantasy night. Gallinari went for 50+ fp in 2 of his last 4 home games to close out the regular season.
Center
Boban Marjanovic (DK: $4700, FD; $5800 Y!:$11 ) Ownership 17.72%
Joel Embiid has played 24 and 20 minutes in Games 1 and 2 vs. the Nets and is again questionable for Game 3 with a nagging knee injury. That gives potential, yet again, for Boban Marjanovic who has 13 and 16 points so far. Marjanovic grabbed 8 boards last game and dished out 4 assists in the series opener, so he can score a variety of ways. The minutes have been just 15 and 18, but Marjanovic has still approached 30 fantasy points in each of the first two games. Can he get a 20-25 minute night going on the road?
Utility Player
Ben Simmons (DK:$7700 FD:$9900 Y!: $44) Ownership 24.8%
Ben Simmons looked like he had enough after Philadelphia's Game 1 loss to Brooklyn so he went off for 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists to ensure the Sixers evened up the series. Simmons had a rough game 1 (9/7/3) but was recovering from a dental procedure and was questionable to even play before the game. Two more nights off following Game 2 should have Simmons feeling rested and ready to produce in Brooklyn tonight.
It's playoff season and it's a great time for DFS success. For more discussion, feel free to check out Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) on Twitter for sports betting talk and DFS news.