Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.  

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Last thing but just as important before we dive into today's breakdown.  Just wanted to send my condolences out to Coach Popovich and his family.  His wife passed away yesterday.  Such terrible news and our thoughts are certainly with him and his family during this difficult time.  

Things are heating up in the NBA playoffs with two of the three series that played last night tying up at one game apiece.  Tonight, we've got a pair of teams looking to avoid going down the dreaded three games to none hole and a surprisingly tied series headed back to Miami which could really swing some more momentum in the Heat's favor.  Two of the totals on this slate are over 216 and the largest spread is Golden State at 3.5 points.  This should be a good one for fantasy production.  

Our sample size has increased another game so let's see if we can dive into the rotations and get any insight on how we may want to attack this slate.  Below are the average minutes per game for each player through the first two games of the series:

Philadelphia at Miami

Philadelphia:

• Ben Simmons: 36.5

• Dario Saric: 33.5

• JJ Redick: 33

• Marco Belinelli, Robert Covington: 31.5

• Ersan Ilyasova: 29.5

• Amir Johnson: 22

• Markelle Fultz: 9.5

Miami:

• James Johnson: 30.5

• Josh Richardson: 30

• Goran Dragic: 28.5

• Justise Winslow: 26

• Dwayne Wade: 22.5

• Wayne Ellington: 20

• Tyler Johnson: 16

• Bam Adebayo: 15

• Hassan Whiteside: 14

Portland at New Orleans

Portland:

• Damian Lillard: 41

• CJ McCollum: 38.5

• Al-Farouq Aminu: 33

• Moe Harkless: 27 (one game)

• Evan Turner: 25.5

• Zach Collins: 21.5

• Ed Davis: 20.5

• Jusuf Nurkic: 20

• Pat Connaughton: 18

• Shabazz Napier: 14

New Orleans:

• Anthony Davis: 40

• Nikola Mirotic: 39.5

• Rajon Rondo: 39

• Jrue Holiday: 38.5

• E'Twaun Moore: 29

• Ian Clark: 21

• Darius Miller: 14.5

Golden State at San Antonio

Golden State:

• Klay Thompson: 37.5

• Kevin Durant: 35.5

• Draymond Green: 34.5

• Andre Iguodala: 25.5

• Quinn Cook: 21.5

• Kevon Looney: 21

• Shaun Livingston: 19

• JaVale McGee: 17.5

• David West: 15

• Nick Young: 6

San Antonio:

• LaMarcus Aldridge: 31

• Patty Mills: 29.5

• Rudy Gay: 29

• Danny Green: 23

• Davis Bertans: 22

• Manu Ginobili: 20

• Bryn Forbes: 19

• Pau Gasol, Dejounte Murray: 17.5

• Kyle Anderson: 10.5

• Tony Parker: 10

Takeaways from this information:  First, Philadelphia and New Orleans are both running very tight rotations.  After the first six players, the minutes drop off a cliff.  For the most part, we'll have to stick to the starters on those teams with the exception of Marco Belinelli for Philly and maybe Ian Clark for New Orleans (he hasn't been very productive from a fantasy standpoint in this series).  Miami's frontcourt rotation is annoying with Bam Abedayo and Hassan Whiteside getting enough minutes to take away from one another but not enough minutes to be usable in our lineups.  Kelly Olynyk is really the only usable center right now.  The San Antonio backcourt rotation is similar with Patty Mills really the only guard getting enough minutes.  Dejounte Murray, Tony Parker, and Bryn Forbes are all playing just enough to make the other guys not worth it but not enough to get used.  Manu Ginobili is kind of on the fence at the moment.  He saw a slight increase in his game two minutes and if that trend were to continue I'd have interest today but it's hard to know for sure what they will do.   As we've done all week with these small playoff slates we are only going to focus on less obvious, reserve and/or value players.  All of these are players who carry significant risk but a case can be made for them that would help you differentiate your rosters.  I don't want to waste your time writing articles recommending players like Durant, Davis, and Lillard.  You don't need me to tell you those guys are strong plays today.  I'd rather go deeper and see what else we can find.  Let's get to work! 

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.  

Guards

Dwayne Wade, MIA [vs. PHI] (DK: $5.4K, FD: $4.9K)

We saw some classic Dwayne Wade in game two as he completely took over the game and singlehandedly led Miami to a win to even this series.  Wade finished with 28 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists resulting in 44 fantasy points.  The question we need to ask ourselves today is do we think this performance, or anything close to it, is repeatable?  He saw the largest price increase of this slate on DraftKings at $700 and the fourth largest on FanDuel at $400.  Both of these cut into his potential value.  It seems like Miami is taking the "hot hand" approach when it comes to minutes.  In game one, it was Justise Winslow who got all the minutes off the bench when he was having a good game, meanwhile, Wade only got 19.  In game 2, Winslow was cold and only played 21 minutes while Wade got 26.  My gut tells me the Heat will look to get Wade involved as it obviously worked in game 2.  My concern is, if he's not playing as well, are his minutes secure or could he go right back to playing less than 20 again?  He'll be very popular today after his performance in game 2.  People will assume that vintage Wade is back.  I'm not as convinced.  I think there are some pretty good pivot options today, especially if he's going to carry as much ownership as I think he will.  I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm leaning fade, as I'm worried this could be a letdown spot, and with him being so popular, it would give us a big edge on the field.  

Marco Belinelli, PHI [@MIA] (DK: $5K, FD: $5.7K)

A good pivot from Wade, at least on DraftKings, could be on the other side of this game.  Marco Belinelli has provided an incredible offensive spark off the bench for Philadelphia.  He's had at least 20 fantasy points now in 11 straight games.  So far, in this series, he's put up 39 and 21 fantasy points.  What gives me the most confidence in him, however, is his playing time seems secure as he's played 33 and 30 minutes in each playoff game.   He saw a slight price increase of $200 on DraftKings, but he's still just $5K.  He saw a slight price decrease of $200 on FanDuel where you could still argue he's a bit overpriced but every little bit helps. I'm going to contradict myself a little here since I just said I was likely fading Wade today.  FanDuel basically forces you to consider playing Wade who's only $4.9K.  That's an $800 difference.  But, on DraftKings, where Wade saw such a massive price hike based on just one game, Belinelli has shown consistency both in performance and playing time now for weeks.  Yet, he is still cheaper than Wade.  I think it makes a lot of sense to take the lower ownership Belinelli will carry today and hope Wade falls flat in the game.  It's worth mentioning that JJ Redick is a similar price on both sites (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.6K).  I'm leaning Belinelli simply because Reddick's decreased price will likely raise ownership, while Belinelli's rising price could make people shy away.  Why pay more for someone who comes off the bench right? But that's what you want in GPPs.  The less owned player with a similar price and opportunity for production.  Both are in play but I'm leaning Belinelli.     

Patty Mills, SA [vs. GS] (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.8K)

For some reason, Mills is still $700 cheaper than Dejounte Murray on DraftKings and $1200 less on FanDuel despite averaging 12 more minutes per game.  Mills, at this point, is really the only guard on the Spurs with minutes that appear to be secure.  He had a very strong game 2 with 29 fantasy points.  Golden State has been a good matchup for shooting guards all season allowing 30 fantasy points per game.  The Spurs also return home today where they were an impressive 33-8 during the regular season.  This would explain why the spread is still only 3.5 points despite losing the first two games of this series by a decisive margin.  I'll address the elephant in the room as well.  I certainly don't want to be insensitive when it comes to the death of Coach Popovich's wife but you have to believe the emotion on the Spurs today will be high and these guys will come out firing as a show of support for their coach.  Take that for what it's worth.  The Spurs are too good to get swept in this series even if it is against the Warriors.  I like them to get a game back today.    

Forwards

Ersan Ilyasova (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.6K) and Dario Saric (DK: $6.6K, FD: $6.4K), PHI [@MIA]

When Joel Embiid went down with an orbital fracture Richaun Holmes was originally slotted to step in and take the majority of his minutes.  Instead, Ersan Ilyasova has been playing fantastic in his increased opportunity, either as a starter or off the bench, leaving Holmes as a mere afterthought at this point.   I'm viewing Saric and Ilyasova as basically interchangeable.  They are both starting, playing similar minutes and have almost the exact same projections on both sites.  They have a similar floor and ceiling with both players posting a fantasy point score in the high 40s in the past week (Saric 48 in their last game and Ilyasova with 45 on April 10th).  Even their matchup is identical as Miami ranked 18th in average fantasy points allowed to both power forwards and centers this season.  Through the first two games of this series, Saric has had 30 and 48 fantasy points per game while Ilyasova has had 37 and 28.  So, how do you choose?  Honestly, you could make a case to play both of them together in the same lineup.  It's not a situation where one player is taking away the other's minutes.  Instead, they are collectively taking minutes away from Holmes, Amir Johnson and, obviously, Embiid.  On FanDuel, where they are priced just $200 apart, Saric is the slightly better value though Ilyasova's price has dropped $700 for today's slate while Saric's price increased $400.  Saric is still cheaper but these sudden shifts in price for both players make them very similar.  On DraftKings, Ilyasova is $800 less than Saric and is clearly a better value there.  This doesn't mean, however, that Saric is someone you shouldn't consider it's just the difference between them is a bit more defined.  Bottom line? Both of these guys are playing well and should be on your radar today just like JJ Redick and Marco Belinelli who we already discussed.  It's part of what makes the 76ers such a dangerous team.  They have multiple players who can step up at any point and have similar production to their counterpart whether they are starting or coming off the bench.  

Kelly Olynyk, MIA [vs. PHI] (DK: $6.1K, FD: $6.3K)

Joel Embiid's absence doesn't only impact his own team it also impacts how the minutes are divided up on their opponent as well.  With Embiid doubtful, this should allow Miami to stick to smaller, faster lineups.  This means Hassan Whiteside continuing to see less than 20 minutes and Kelly Olynyk seeing over 30 minutes yet again today.  He's been productive in the series so far with 40 and 30 fantasy points (38 and 31 on FanDuel) in the first two games of the series.  Philadelphia, as we know, is a much less intimidating matchup in the frontcourt without Embiid.  They rank 24th in average fantasy points allowed to reserve power forwards in their last ten games.  This game is a good one to get exposure to with the highest O/U on the slate at 217 but a spread of only one in favor of Philadelphia despite the Heat being back home in Miami.  I'm sure they'll have something to say about being underdogs on their home court.  Assuming Embiid misses (he's currently doubtful) I like this to be a fast game for the Heat who currently have the largest pace up differential on the slate that should stay competitive.  Olynyk should have plenty of scoring opportunities and be able to pay off his salary on both sites.  

Maurice Harkless, POR [@NOP] (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.6K)

It's desperation time for the Blazers down by two games and now heading out on the road for the next two.  I was surprised to see Moe Harkless get 27 minutes in his first game back only 10 days removed from arthroscopic knee surgery.  There were rumors of a "strict minute limit" but nothing definitive was ever said.  Perhaps desperate times call for desperate measures.  In his return, he managed 11 points on 5-5 shooting along with 5 rebounds producing 19 fantasy points.  On FanDuel, for some reason, his price dropped an additional $200 making him an even better value today.  He provides a spark to the Blazers as he was playing some great basketball before the injury while Evan Turner hasn't done much of anything with his increased opportunity.  With Evan Turner questionable tonight, and Harkless clearly playing better anyway, I would expect him to get the start making him too cheap on both sites.  Assuming we get no word of any kind of minutes limit (again I've seen it mentioned via multiple sources but nothing that says what the restriction actually is) he would be one of the better values available on this slate tonight.  Keep an eye out on the news surrounding Portland today as the status of Harkless, Turner, and Nurkic who never returned from his leg injury in game 2 could completely flip this slate.    

Centers

Jusuf Nurkic (DK: $6.2K, FD: $7.5K) and Zach Collins (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.5K), POR [@NOP]

All week I've complained about how awful center has been on FanDuel.  Well, welcome to the worst slate yet.  We'll start with the good news on DraftKings, which includes Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Ersan Ilyasova, Kelly Olynyk and James Johnson as additional options.  That gives you a lot more to work with and honestly, all those players are solid options on this three-game slate.  On FanDuel, you basically have two options.  Option one is Jusuf Nurkic.  But, to complicate things, he left game 2 with a leg injury.  He returned to the bench but not to the game.  I've seen nothing that indicates he wouldn't play today but like I said earlier we need to keep our eye on Portland news before lock tonight.  If Nurkic misses then Zach Collins becomes an autoplay.  Collins stepped up in Nurkic's absence last game producing 12 points and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes resulting in 16 fantasy points.  A solid return for a player priced near the minimum on both sites.  It's worth noting, even if Nurkic plays, Collins actually had 24 fantasy points in game one of this series when Nurkic played the whole game.  Collins was part of the perfect lineup that night so you could still consider him assuming Nurkic plays today.  Obviously, this increases the risk.  Nurkic himself was on his way to a big night before going out with the injury in game 2.  He had 22 fantasy points in just 15 minutes filling the stat sheet with 3 rebounds, a block, and a steal.  The problem here, as if FanDuel couldn't get any worse at this position, is he's $1300 more expensive than he is on DraftKings where we really don't even need him.  It's like the good folks at FanDuel are laughing at us as they put the prices out on center.  Oh look, Nurkic is the only good option tonight.  Let's jack up the price and watch everyone squirm when they click his name! (Cue the evil laughter).  In all seriousness though, despite the big difference between the two sites, Nurkic is actually down $800 from game one so it's certainly an improvement.  If you liked him in game one then you have to like him again today (assuming he's healthy).  

JaVale McGee, GS [@SA] (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.6K)

Welcome to option two.  Our good friend JaVale McGee.  The problem?  He's questionable for tonight's game.  If he misses, you're looking at the minutes being divided up between Pachulia, Looney and, Bell.  Those guys have played average minutes per game in this series so far of zero, seven and four respectively.  So, good luck figuring out what to do with that.  McGee said he was feeling "good" (#analysis) so let's assume he plays tonight and this awful player pool doesn't get narrowed down even further.  He's started both games and averaged 17.5 minutes per game.  Not exactly the type of minutes that give you confidence but he's been extremely efficient.  The good news?  In the two games in this series, he's had fantasy point performances of 29 and 28 placing himself in the perfect lineup both nights.  Despite this excellent efficiency, his price actually dropped a whopping $900 on FanDuel for today (it rose $200 on DraftKings but he's still very cheap so no real impact).  It's like FanDuel felt sorry for knowing they are so much more expensive than DraftKings on Nurkic that they tried to give us a break by dangling a very cheap, though questionable, McGee in front of us today.  If McGee plays today, and there are no concerns about his health, he'll be my guy at center on FanDuel.  I'm going to take advantage of the sudden price drop and hope his efficiency continues.  On DraftKings, he's under consideration, but you have a lot more to play with over there.     

Injuries 🤕

Philadelphia:

• DOUBT: Joel Embiid: C

• UPGRADE: Ersan Ilyasova: PF/C

Miami:

• No injuries reported

Portland at New Orleans

Portland:

• QUEST: Evan Turner: SG/SF

• QUEST: Jusuf Nurkic: C

• UPGRADE: Moe Harkless: SG/SF, Zach Collins: PF/C

New Orleans:

• No injuries reported

Golden State at San Antonio

Golden State:

• QUEST: JaVale McGee: C

• OUT: Patrick McCaw: PG/SF

• OUT: Steph Curry: SG/SG

• UPGRADE: Andre Iguodala: PG/SG/SF, Zaza Pachulia: C

San Antonio:

• OUT: Joffrey Lauvergne: PF/C

• OUT: Kawhi Leonard: SF

• UPGRADE: N/A

I'm excited about this slate.  With the lower seeded teams shifting to their home courts it should make for even more competitive games.  We even have some possible injury situations to monitor which could open up more value today.  Haven't had to say that for a few days!  Make sure to keep an eye on the news, particularly surrounding the Blazers, who could really turn things upside down for us today.  As far as the higher priced players are concerned.  It's worth noting the difference in price on each site as there are some fairly big discrepancies.  Outside of Ben Simmons, who has the same price on both sites, FanDuel is much more expensive.  Anthony Davis is $1800 more on FanDuel, Damian Lillard is $700 more, Kevin Durant is $700 more and LaMarcus Aldridge is $600 more.  As far as my approach to the slate is concerned I'm feeling good about the value options at the forward positions today with players like Harkless, Rudy Gay (who I didn't mention but you should take a look at) and the twin towers of Saric and Ilyasova in Philadelphia.  I'm a little less confident at guard outside of JJ Redick and Marco Belinelli so I could see this being an area I spend some money today.  On DraftKings, I'd like to spend money at center.  On FanDuel, I want to save money at center with McGee if I can.  Your strategy on each site today is going to be vastly different given the available player pools and large price differences.  Good luck today!  Tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry with any questions or feedback!  Thank you for reading!   

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