Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.  

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Raise your hand if you fell into the "Hassan Whiteside will get a bunch of minutes once Joel Embiid comes back cause they'll need him on defense" trap.  In case you're wondering, my hand is up.  I made the mistake of rushing my judgment when the news came out and not adjusting well.  The second it was revealed that Embiid was going to play I quickly pivoted to him (which turned out to be a fine play at his reduced cost) and Whiteside who got only 13 minutes and a pathetic 5.40 DraftKings points.   My other mistake was that I stayed with Ersan Ilyasova who I incorrectly predicted would still get his minutes despite Embiid returning.  I figured, with how well Ilyasova had been playing, that Amir Johnson would lose the rest of his minutes instead.  But, as it turns out Ilyasova only got 20 and Amir Johnson still got 14 minutes making both players unusable.  We now know how these rotations will operate so that's the good news.  The bad news, I got my butt kicked last night.  My worst night of NBA playoffs so far.  But, that's the beauty of DFS.  We learn from our mistakes, shake off a bad night, and get a clean slate to work with again today. 

All the teams in action tonight have played two games so let's see if we can dive into the rotations and get any insight on how we may want to attack this slate.  Below are the average minutes per game for each player through the first two games of the series:

Boston at Milwaukee

Boston:

• Al Horford: 40

• Jaylen Brown: 39.5

• Terry Rozier: 39

• Jayson Tatum: 37

• Marcus Morris: 33

• Aron Baynes: 19

• Shane Larkin: 18.5

• Greg Monroe: 13.5

Milwaukee:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo: 44

• Khris Middleton: 42.5

• John Henson: 37

• Eric Bledsoe: 33.5

• Tony Snell: 27.5

• Malcolm Brogdon: 25.5

• Jabari Parker: 12.5

Cleveland at Indiana

Cleveland:

• LeBron James: 42

• Kevin Love: 34.5

• J.R. Smith: 32

• Larry Nance Jr: 27

• Jeff Green, George Hill: 19.5

• Rodney Hood: 18

• Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Korver: 17.5

• Jose Calderon: 11.5

Indiana:

• Bojan Bogdanovic: 35

• Myles Turner: 34.5

• Thaddeus Young: 33

• Victor Oladipo: 32.5

• Darren Collison: 32

• Cory Joseph: 23

• Lance Stephenson: 20.5

• Domantas Sabonis: 17.5

Toronto:

• Kyle Lowry: 37

• DeMar DeRozan: 36

• Serge Ibaka: 32

• Delon Wright: 26

• Jonas Valanciunas: 23

• CJ Miles: 21

• OG Anunoby: 20.5

• Jakob Poeltl: 14.5

• Pascal Siakam: 13.5

Washington:

• John Wall: 35.5

• Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris: 33

• Ty Lawson: 31 (one game)

• Otto Porter: 28.5

• Mike Scott: 27

• Kelly Oubre: 23

• Marcin Gortat: 20.5

Takeaways from this information:  First, Boston and Milwaukee are running extremely tight rotations.  Milwaukee has six players getting the minutes and then it goes all the way down to Jabari Parker with only 12.5 minutes per game as their 7th player.  Boston has five players getting all the minutes and then it drops down to Baynes with less than 20 per game.  Cleveland is not making things easy for us.  Outside of LeBron and Love, there are several players jumbled together.  They have Green, Hill, Hood, Clarkson, and Korver all playing between 17 and 20 minutes per game.  Not enough to use in DFS but just enough to make their teammates unusable also.  Toronto seems content holding Jonas Valanciunas to less than 25 minutes and then splitting the backup time between Poeltl and Siakam.  I was hoping to see Valanciunas get more in the playoffs but it's looking unlikely.  Finally, Ty Lawson is really interesting for Washington.  We'll get to him soon.  As we've done all week with these small playoff slates we are only going to focus (as much as possible) on less obvious, reserve and/or value players.  All of these are players who carry significant risk but a case can be made for them that would help you differentiate your rosters.  You don't need me to tell you the regular starters are always under consideration on small slates like this.  I'd rather go deeper and see what else we can find.  Let's get to work! 

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.  

Guards

Jaylen Brown, BOS [@MIL] (DK: $6.5K, FD: $6.8K)

One of the big question marks surrounding the Celtics heading into this postseason was which version of Jaylen Brown would we get.  If you recall, he struggled mightily as a rookie, with Boston just barely escaping out of the first round last year.  Well, through the first two games of this series it's become clear that the past is behind him.  In game 2, Brown became the youngest player in franchise history to score 30 or more points in a playoff game.  The only active players to achieve this at a younger age are Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings and the King himself.  Brown has been rock solid with 34 and 37 fantasy points in the first two games of the series.  He's been consistent against the Bucks all season with just one game under 25 fantasy points despite Milwaukee being a difficult matchup ranking 9th in average fantasy points allowed to shooting guards during the regular season.  The one issue with Boston is their prices are climbing with their productivity so far in this series.  But I'm willing to overlook that and lock in the high floor I'll get with Brown and hope he pushes his ceiling in this game tonight.  As we already discussed, Boston is running a tight rotation with Brown averaging 39.5 minutes per game so far.  Plenty of opportunities for him to exceed value on this small slate.  I like him to play close to 40 minutes yet again today, put up another valuable performance, and the Celtics to go up 3-0 in this series.

Darren Collison, IND [vs. CLE] (DK: $5.4K, FD: $5.9K)

Collison hasn't been able to show us that ceiling yet in this series but he continues to be as consistent as can be when playing the Cavs.  In six matchups this season he has just one game below 25 fantasy points and two games above 40 fantasy points (45 on November 1st and 51 on January 26th).  That type of floor/ceiling combination is hard to come by and makes him extremely appealing.  You have confidence he won't kill your lineup even if he has a bad night but you know the possible reward for rostering him could shoot you straight to the top in a tournament.  His minutes are secure, averaging 32 per game so far in this series.  The Pacers also have the highest positive pace differential on this slate which will lead to additional scoring opportunities.  Put that together with the fact that Cleveland ranks 29th in average fantasy points allowed to point guards over their last ten games and you've got a player who should be able to provide you some serious value today.  Doesn't hurt that Indiana is going home for this one as well.  Oh, did I mention he's under $6K on both sites?  Yup, I'll be clicking his name today. 

Ty Lawson, WAS [vs. TOR] (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.5K)

I'm sorry, did you say Ty Lawson?  Yup.  The Ty Lawson who went to North Carolina?  Yup.  The guy who played for Denver, Sacramento, Houston, and Indiana? Yup, that's him.  Is he still in the league?  As of a few days ago, he is yes.  Ty Lawson didn't play a single game in the NBA this season.  Instead, he was in China starring for the CBA's Shandong Golden Stars where he averaged 25.5 points and 6.5 assists per game making it pretty deep into the playoffs.  Then, a week ago, he signed a deal with the Wizards for the rest of the season.  We talked earlier in the week about how the Wizards have struggled with their depth off the bench for years.  It appears they are trying to solve for that while trying to keep their season alive.  I knew Lawson had signed with the team but what I didn't expect is he'd get 31 minutes in his first game after only being involved in two practices.  But that's what happened, and he looked every bit the spark off the bench the Wizards are looking for.  He had 14 points and 8 assists leading to a 29 fantasy point performance.  It's a one-game sample size so this could easily blow up in our faces but if the Wizards are going to give him at least 30 minutes per night to be the leader of their second rotation he should have no problem crushing his value for at least a couple of games.  Jump on now if you dare but just know, well, it's Ty Lawson.  Definitely wouldn't call him safe. 

Forwards

Serge Ibaka, TOR [@WAS] (DK: $6K, FD: $6.3K)

I'm writing about more starters than I wanted to which should give us at least some indication about the reserve players' value on this slate.  Unfortunately, the teams playing today are either playing their starters so heavily that we can't consider using anyone else or they are playing several reserve players a handful of minutes and it's impossible to predict who, if anyone, will get enough playing time to make them viable.  As far as Ibaka, my hope is because he's priced in the middle tier he might go overlooked.  In game one of this series, he had his best fantasy performance of the season.  He had a double-double with 12 rebounds and scored over 40 fantasy points for the first time since January 8th against the Nets. He then backed that up with another solid performance in game 2, with 31 fantasy points and just barely missing out on another double-double by one rebound.  His price has come up a bit, $900 on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel over the past two games, which definitely hurts his value. Forward is ugly outside of the stars like James and Antetokounpmo, especially on FanDuel, since you have to roster two of each position.   Ibaka is still cheap enough where he won't crush you if he has an off night but he still has that 40 point upside that could make a big impact on your lineup.  We currently have him listed as the top value of the day on FanDuel at $183/pt and third best value on DraftKings at $181/pt.  He doesn't give you the feeling of "this guy will win me this slate" when you click his name.  But, he's solid, and you probably have more confidence in him then other name's you've clicked throughout the playoffs so far.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement I know but what do you want from me? It's a three-game slate!

Tyler Zeller, MIL [vs. BOS] (DK: $2.8K, FD: $3.5K)

John Henson has been listed as doubtful for tonight's game, which should open up a good amount of minutes for Tyler Zeller. With Milwaukee and Boston playing small ball lineups and running very tight rotations, Henson has received basically all of the minutes at center, averaging 37 per game, and a lot of that should goto Zeller.  We know the matchup isn't great against a tough Celtics defense but we really need to look beyond matchup in the playoffs where we will never find anything ideal (most of the time).  The number of minutes he should see tonight should make up for the tough matchup. Keep an eye on Middleton and Bledsoe to see increased usage tonight as well with Henson off the court.

Mike Scott, WAS [vs. TOR] (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.5K)

Two Wizards bench players in one article?  I must be dreaming! Mike Scott is another guy that seems to be pushing for more playing time in Washington. The good news? I think he's going to get it. We talked about Scott in Wednesday's article and he came through with 26 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action. A solid 7.5 times return on investment. Meanwhile, Marcin Gortat was very inefficient and subsequently benched in the process. He played just 12 minutes in game two with only 4 fantasy points while Scott played 27 which is 10 minutes higher than his season average. I think this trend will continue.  The question is how will he get those minutes? Scenario one is similar to what we've seen recently with him quickly coming off the bench and providing a boost on offense, particularly on the second unit, and Gortat getting minimal playing time.  Scenario two is he gets the start in place of Gortat.  Coach Brooks was very secretive when asked about the situation after game 2 saying "Who knows? He might be a starting five option."  Not a lot of help there but either way it appears the minutes are here to stay.  Let's not forget he's still the minimum price on FanDuel and only $3.8K on DraftKings.  If you believe in the Wizards value today it could open up a lot of options for the rest of your lineup.  

Centers

Al Horford, BOS [@MIL] (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8.3K)

I'm still not sure why Vegas has the totals on the game between the Celtics and Bucks so low.  In game one the implied total was under 200 at 197.5, in game 2 the implied total was just over 200 at 201 and now today here we are with an implied total 203.  These teams have crushed these totals both games so far.  The Celtics, in fact, have the lowest implied total on the slate at 98.5.  They are going on the road, so I suppose that plays a factor, but this is a team who put up 113 and 120 in the first two games of the series.  I still feel like people are selling them short because of all the injuries.  If you're playing cash, the floor on Horford has never been higher.  He's locked into 40 minutes per night right now.  If you're playing GPP, I'll admit his price is definitely starting to get up to the point of wanting to pivot elsewhere.  On FanDuel he's increased $900 since the start of this series.  On DraftKings, he's up $1200 since the start of the series but it actually came down $100 after game 2.  The good news, in terms of GPP, is his ownership may come down.  He had a solid game 2 with 33 fantasy points which again, for cash games is perfect, but in tournaments, that's less than five times return on investment.  Ideally, we need more than that.  This combined with Boston having the lowest implied total on the slate at 98.5 could absolutely scare some people away.  The 57 point ceiling he showed us in game one, however, is still very much within his range of outcomes.  I don't think I'm going here myself today as center, even on FanDuel, is presenting us with a couple other usable options.  I'm going to have Celtics exposure but I'm not sure Horford is the best use of my money in tournaments today.  Still, given the minutes, the floor, and his incredible game one performance I figured he was worth adding to the discussion.  

Jonas Valanciunas, TOR [@WAS] (DK: $5.9K, FD: 6K)

I really want him to play more minutes than he is.  That's the only thing that has held me back from rostering him at all.  But, this is a three-game slate and our options are very limited, particularly at the center position.  While he's not getting as many minutes as I'd like, he's getting enough to make him worthy of consideration and those minutes seem to be secure.  Plus, with Marcin Gortat only getting 12 minutes in game 2 and potentially looking at similar playing time in game 3, Valaciunas could have a big advantage during his time on the floor being matched up with Mike Scott.  Scott is 6-8 while Valanciunas is 7 feet.  This height advantage allowed him to pull down 14 rebounds in game 2 in just 23 minutes.  A very efficient double-double.  It wouldn't shock me at all to see similar results today.  I'm going to keep an eye on the news today and see if we get any insight into what the Wizards plan to do with Scott/Gortat.  If Scott gets the start, or there is an indication he'll be playing heavy minutes at center, Valanciunas will be my primary center today, especially on FanDuel.  

Myles Turner, IND [vs CLE] (DK: $5.6K, FD: $6K)

I was all over Turner for game 2 and he was a letdown, at least from a fantasy perspective, only getting 21 fantasy points.  That's the bad news.  The good news, he was solid from a real-life perspective which should eventually lead to fantasy production if he can keep it going. He's shooting 61.9% from the field through the first two games of this series with 16 points in game 1 and 18 points in game 2.  If he can keep up the scoring production and find a couple extra rebounds along the way he has a clear path toward exceeding value at his current salary.  His minutes are secure, with 34.5 minutes per game through the first two games of the series.  He's not safe by any stretch, nor is he a player I would typically recommend, but you have to admit he's playing at a higher level so far in the postseason.  We also can't ignore that he seems to have some success against the Cavs this season with fantasy point performances of 37, 31 and 21 in their three meetings that he played.  The Pacers return home today and they have the largest positive pace differential on the slate which should only help his productivity.  It's worth noting that Kevin Love also got hurt in the previous game.  He suffered a partial tear in his thumb.  The x-rays came back negative and he's claiming he'll be good to go today but that thumb should be heavily taped up.  I'm obviously not a doctor so I have no idea if this will impact his ability to play defense but he mentioned it was painful so I can't imagine he'd want to stick that hand up to block a shot or get after the ball.  Mere speculation on my part but figured it was worth mentioning.  Regardless, Turner is a boom or bust GPP play today.  

Injuries 🤕

Cleveland at Indiana

As has been the case all week FanDuel appears to be significantly more expensive on many players, including the higher priced guys like Wall, James, Oladipo, and Antetokounmpo.  I'm not in love with a lot of the frontcourt value options today at forward and center.  There seems to be a bit more to work with at guard tonight which is likely where I'll try to save some money if I can.  As far as the studs are concerned it all depends on how much value you can stomach tonight.  If you believe in the newly discovered offense coming off the bench in Washington with Scott and Lawson, then it's possible you could go stars and scrubs and fit in a couple of studs.  James is the top overall play on the slate as he'll continue to single-handedly carry Cleveland.  Antetokounmpo is next on my list as he's dominated the Celtics all season and he's playing 44 minutes per game (two more than James).  The Bucks come home today as well.  I think he makes for a great pivot off of James with significantly less ownership and cost.  He has the ability in this matchup to contend with James for the highest fantasy points of the night.   Good luck today!  Tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry with any questions or feedback!  Thank you for reading!   

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