Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.  

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We have a MASSIVE four-game slate to talk about on this Saturday!  That's right, four-games!  We haven't had an NBA slate of this size in at least a week.  Last night, we saw all three home teams take the win and make their individual series more interesting.  Today, we've got one team looking at elimination and a four-game sweep.  We've got another looking to avoid going down three games to none, then we have two teams trying to take command of a tied series and another trying to even their series.   These games all have close spreads ranging from three to seven points with mediocre implied totals as low as 207 and as high as 216.  There should be enough for us to work with here from a fantasy production standpoint.  As far as value, well, that's a different story.  There's some but nothing that really jumps off the page.  We'll do our best to focus on the less obvious players you could make a case for rostering today rather than focusing on big name players that you already know are good options.  Let's get to work!

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.  

Guards

Rajon Rondo, NOP [vs. POR] (DK: $7.6K, FD: $7.1K)

Playoff Rondo is a real thing and it's pretty amazing to watch.  He's on absolute fire right now and a major reason the Pelicans are currently up three games to none and will likely, in my opinion, sweep the Blazers tonight.  In the three games of this series, he has fantasy point totals of 42, 36, and 44 including two double-doubles with 17 assists in one and 11 assists in the other.  In fact, he's averaging 12.3 assists per game in this series and 13.3 more fantasy points per game than he did during the regular season.  Even more compelling, this last game where he had 44 fantasy points he only played 28 minutes in a blowout.  Had he played typical playoff minutes (39 in each of the first two games of the series) he would have easily surpassed 50 fantasy points in game three.  I think this game is a bit more competitive then the first three with the Blazers back's against the wall.  That should only open up more opportunities for Rondo and company.  Don't be afraid to stack him with other members of the Pelicans either.  In particular, Anthony Davis, who we have Rondo listed as a top assist combo with.  I like Rondo for 35+ minutes tonight and another double-double.  Get your brooms out after this one.    

Ricky Rubio, UTA [vs. OKC] (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.4K)

I know I said I was going to try and focus on less obvious players today to help you with your tournament research/roster building process.  But, maybe, Rubio is less obvious then we think with guard being a completely loaded position tonight.  We've got Westbrook, Paul, Simmons, Lillard, and Rondo all on this slate.  My gut tells me all those guys are more likely to be rostered than Rubio tonight.  Yet, Rubio has been fantastic in the first two games of this series posting 38 and 47 fantasy points.  He's averaging 17.5 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists and has been part of the perfect lineup in both games of this series.  Oklahoma City gives up 34.1 fantasy points per game and 6.4 assists per game to point guards so there is no reason to believe this trend will not continue.  Plus, on top of all of this, he's still under $7K on DraftKings and only $7.4K on FanDuel.  He's a core option for me today.

Marco Belinelli, PHI [@MIA] (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.7K)

I feel like I've written up Belinelli one hundred times in the past week but he keeps coming through.  He's one of the safest, non-starting players on the board whenever the 76ers play.  In game three, when Embiid returned, he was the only player I still got right on Philadelphia.  I incorrectly assumed that Ersan Ilyasova, who's also played extremely well, would continue to get his share of minutes and that Amir Johnson would lose the rest of his.  Instead, Ilyasova saw a sharp decline in his playing time and the bench minutes got a bit cloudy for many players.  Belinelli, however, was not impacted playing 33 minutes and putting up 36 fantasy points.  He's taken double-digit shot attempts in eleven straight games resulting in no less than 20 fantasy points during that same span.  He's not under $5K anymore but he can still provide some salary relief on this small slate.    

Forwards

Kelly Olynyk (DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.2K) and James Johnson (DK: $5.7K, FD: $5.7K), MIA [vs. PHI]

Kelly Olynyk and James Johnson are here to stay my friends (at least until Miami gets eliminated).  Many of us, myself included, assumed Olynyk was picking up extra minutes because the Heat were able to play more small ball lineups without having to worry about Joel Embiid on the other end.  Once Embiid returned, however, Hassan Whiteside would see an increase in playing time that would eat into Olynyk's minutes and opportunities.  Instead, Whiteside still only played 13 minutes while Olynyk got the most minutes he's had all series at 36.  He's now averaging 33.3 per game which actually leads all Miami players.  He continues to be productive with this increased playing time as well scoring over 30 fantasy points in all three games (38, 31 and 31).  Johnson has had a solid series himself, averaging 4.4 minutes per game more than the regular season and 38.25 fantasy points per game in the series so far.  Philadelphia is a much worse matchup when Embiid is on the floor so understand the risk when considering either of these players (though they seemed to handle it okay in game three).  But, their minutes are secure, this is a home game that Miami desperately needs to win and both of these guys have the upside to make a difference on your roster today.   

Gerald Green, HOU [@MIN] (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4K)

He's a tough player to predict as his minutes aren't always as secure as we'd like and he relies very heavily on scoring to reach salary expectations.  If his shot isn't falling (or he's simply not taking the shots needed) he could leave a huge hole in your lineup.  In game one, he played 26 minutes, going 11 of 22 from the field and putting up 30 fantasy points.  In game two, he only played 20 minutes, shooting just 2 of 5 from the field resulting in 12 fantasy points.  In game three, he went back to 26 minutes and shot 7 of 17 from the field.  Surprisingly, he also cleaned up 12 rebounds resulting in 40 fantasy points.  An amazing ten times return on investment.  So, which Green do we think shows up for tonight?  Unfortunately, your guess is as good as mine.  The floor is very low but he certainly has the ceiling to make him worth considering, especially on a four-game slate.  He was only 5% owned in GPPs in game three.  At that ownership level and with his return on investment he was likely part of a lot of winning lineups that night.  He's a boom or bust GPP option for tonight.  

Justise Winslow, MIA [vs. PHI] (DK: $5K, FD: $4.8K)

It seems like whichever player between Winslow and Wade has an off night the other one greatly benefits.  Game one saw Winslow put up 30 fantasy points in 26 minutes while Wade had 21 fantasy points in 19 minutes.  In game two, Winslow had 8 fantasy points in 21 minutes while Wade blew up for 44 fantasy points in 26 minutes.  Finally, game 3, it was Winslow who blew up for 43 fantasy points in 27 minutes while Wade had 20 fantasy points in 25 minutes.  See what I mean? When one guy is on it eats into the other's production.  So, how do we decide which player to use?  For me, I'm going to keep it simple.  Wade is the cash game play as the floor is much higher with no less than 20 fantasy points in the three games so far.  He was also 53% owned in tournaments during game three.  Winslow, meanwhile, has a similar ceiling but lower floor and he was only 7.4% owned in tournaments during game three.  Now, I would expect Winslow's ownership to come up slightly after the previous big game while Wade was disappointing chalk which will bring his ownership down.  I'd still expect Wade, however, to carry significantly more ownership in the end.  Confusing? Yes, but there is fantasy goodness in here if you get it right.     

Centers

Joel Embiid, PHI [@MIA] (DK: $9.1K, FD: $9.6K)

We'll start with the obvious option as this is the center position which is generally much weaker than the others. Mask or no mask (he needed three to get through this game) Embiid picked up right where he left off in this game. He filled up the stat sheet with 23 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks and even a steal resulting in 46 fantasy points. He saw a rise in price on both sites, as expected, now that he has a game under his belt. But he's still under $10K and should be considered one of the better values on today's slate. Feel free to stack him with Ben Simmons, as the pair put up an incredible 135.0 offensive rating for the 24 minutes they were on the floor together. Expect more of this today. With the process back, the 76ers have a real chance at winning the eastern conference this season.  

Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN [vs. HOU] (DK: $8.3K, FD: $9.8K)

Rule number one for winning a GPP.  Embrace the variance.  When a stud player like Towns is cold (and he's freezing right now) it's the best time to jump on board.  With the rest of the field too scared to roster him because of how low the floor looks recently you have a great opportunity to gain an advantage.  What people always overlook in situations like this is no matter how low the floor may get the ceiling remains intact.  In tournaments (and really, on four-game slates in general) shouldn't you be primarily focused on ceiling anyway?  He's been awful so far in the series I'm not here to dispute that.  But, this is Karl Anthony-Towns.  He has an 80 point ceiling which we witnessed only a few weeks ago and now we are getting him at a discounted price (at least on DraftKings).  This is the least expensive he has been on DraftKings since December 6th when he was $8.1K (for the record he put up 54 fantasy points that night nearly seven times return on investment.)  On FanDuel, he's not as appealing from a price standpoint, as this is the cheapest he's been since only March 11th, but I still have interest because I believe ownership on him will be low which is incredible for a four-game slate.  After two games where Towns not being involved in this offense was clearly an issue, I have to believe they'll go out of their way today to get him the ball.  They'll have to if they have any chance of tightening up this series and potentially extending their season.  

Clint Capela, HOU [@MIN] (DK: $7.2K, FD: $7.9K)

If you're not into embracing variance and safety is more your cup of tea then it doesn't get any better than Clint Capela right now.  He has been excellent in the first two games of this series.  We know that Minnesota is a good matchup for centers, allowing 32.9 fantasy points per game which ranked 26th on the season.  Capela has taken full advantage of that with 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks in game one (52 fantasy points) and only eight points, but 16 rebounds in game two (31 fantasy points).  In fact, Capela has really taken full advantage of this matchup all season long without a single game under 30 fantasy points in their six meetings, three over 40 fantasy points and one over 50.  Despite all this success, his price dropped $300 on FanDuel and remained the same on DraftKings for tonight's game.  I think he's a lock for a double-double tonight and he's likely to be less popular with Joel Embiid having a solid first game back from his injury.  Embiid is listed as one of the top value centers today on both sites and I believe he'll be the most popular of the center options allowing Capela to fly under the radar more than he should.

Injuries 🤕

Oklahoma City:

• No injuries reported

Utah:

• PROB: Donovan Mitchell: SG

• UPGRADE: N/A

This could be a good slate.  Some tough decisions to be made and adding in the fourth game should help out with spreading ownership (at least a little it's still a small slate) in tournaments.  It's feeling like a good day to go with a balanced lineup approach.  I really like Rondo and Rubio at guard and I like Towns in tournaments today at his reduced price.  I'm not in love with any specific value play.  We mentioned a few in the article but they are very boom or bust.  Perhaps mixing in Belinelli with the three players I already mentioned will allow you to get up to at least one high priced player.  I need to play around with roster construction some more to figure out exactly how this all fits together.  Good luck today!  Tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry with any questions or feedback!  Thank you for reading!   

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