Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

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The NBA playoffs are getting good. All the teams trailing in their series that played yesterday got the win. Three of those four series are now tied at two games each and then the Spurs avoided the sweep against Golden State but they are really just prolonging the inevitable with that win. Regardless, the playoffs so far are living up to the hype and I'm excited to see what unfolds over the next week. We kick it off tonight with just a mini two-game slate. Both series are currently at 2-1. We've got a fairly significant difference in implied total between the two games but the exact same spread at 5.5 points in favor of Houston and Utah. Today, I'll discuss some core plays that might shape how we can attack this slate. I'll include at least one punt option for consideration at each position. Let's get to work!

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry. I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.

Guards

Russell Westbrook, OKC [@UTA] (DK: $10.7K, FD: $12K)

His price is standing out to me today on DraftKings. This is the cheapest he's been since way back on December 3rd. It hasn't been a great series so far for him (both offensively and defensively). He's fallen below his projections every game with fantasy point totals of 58, 59 and 43. Utah is a difficult matchup defensively only allowing 25.4 fantasy points per game to point guards. But, this is Westbrook we are talking about. He's capable of big things on any given night. It's not like he's never had success against the Jazz before. In fact, he had one of his best performances of the season against them when he put up 77 fantasy points back on December 5th. He's obviously going to be highly owned it's a two-game slate but it wouldn't surprise me if Harden who is $100 less on DraftKings, gets slightly more ownership. The Rockets have the highest implied total on the slate tonight which should play an impact. I think Westbrook will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after Rubio made him look bad in their previous game. This feels like a good time to jump back on board. Angry Westbrook may be in full force this evening.

Ricky Rubio, UTH [vs. OKC] (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.4K)

Even if we get a full dose of "Angry Westbrook" tonight it's not going to keep me from rostering Rubio. You can draw whatever conclusions you want from Westbrook's post-game comments that he was going to lock Rubio down. For me, I need to see it before I believe it. Rubio has been outstanding in this series. Westbrook is a fantastic player but defense is not his strength. A few comments are not going to keep me from rostering the player he is defending especially when he's playing as well as he is right now. He's averaging 48 fantasy points per game in his series and is coming off a very impressive triple-double with 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. Let's be honest, it's not like the Thunder are a difficult matchup and Rubio is doing this out of nowhere. The Thunder have struggled with point guards all season. They ranked 26th in average fantasy points allowed giving up 34.1 fantasy points per game and 6.4 assists per game. It's going to take a couple of bad games before I reconsider rostering Rubio right now.

Eric Gordon, HOU [@MIN] (DK: $4.6K, FD: $5.4K)

Your punt option at guard isn't a true punt because he's a little more expensive then I'd like. But, he'll provide at least some level of salary relief and it will be interesting to see what others do with him. He has not had a good series with only 16, 14 and 20 fantasy points in each game. He really hasn't played well against the Wolves at all this season. He had one game, back on January 18th, where he scored 45 fantasy points off the bench (so we know there's a solid ceiling here) but other than that his regular season consisted of 16 and 10 fantasy points to go along with the playoff series so far. That's the bad news. The good news is he's played 30, 29 and 34 minutes per game. He's arguably the most secure bench player in the league in terms of his spot in the rotation. You're going to hear this a lot from me today so I apologize in advance but you don't care about the floor on this slate. Only the ceiling. Gordon has the ceiling and if we are lucky others will be scared to roster him due to his recent performance. I'd plan to have exposure today.

Forwards

Joe Ingles, UTA [vs. OKC] (DK: $5.7K, FD: $6.3K)

Forward will likely be a popular spot to punt today particularly without any true "studs" at this position. With people trying to jam in Westbrook and Harden this will be a place where salary relief is needed. If you want to be different (and you'll need to be on such a small slate) you could consider paying a little more here. Ingles has not had a good series but he bounced back with 33 fantasy points in their previous game after only putting up 15 and 7 in the first two. He was left open often throughout game three and he capitalized converting 5-10 from three-point range. He finished the night with 21 points, 4 assists, and 3 rebounds. He's a bit overpriced, especially considering how much his performances have fluctuated recently. It's a huge risk to roster him right now. But this past game shows he's capable of putting up big fantasy performances and he did have an excellent end of the regular season. It's an ugly slate, and due to his price, I see Ingles has someone who gets overlooked quite a bit today. You could try overpaying a little and hope that nobody else does. Then fingers crossed he has another big night from downtown and puts up a 30+ fantasy point game again.

Carmelo Anthony, OKC [@UTA] (DK: $5.6K, FD: $5.6K)

Melo hasn't done anything to stand out in this series but he hasn't done anything to get me to shy away from him either. He's displayed a solid floor with fantasy point performances of 36, 31 and 26 through the first three games of this series. He's been solid, if unspectacular, against Utah all season as the last game was his lowest fantasy point performance all season against them. This is no small feat as Utah ranks 1st against small forwards in average fantasy points allowed. If Oklahoma City has any shot in this series they will need something more than what they are currently getting from a key veteran on this team. I'm going to take his reasonable price tag and hope that a vintage Melo game happens, which would likely give you an advantage over much of the field.

Jerami Grant, OKC (@UTA) (DK: $3.6K, FD: $4.1K)

I think Corey Brewer will be a popular punt option today cause he's cheap and a member of the starting rotation so he'll get plenty of minutes. I think he's more likely to disappoint then come through for us and if he's going to be popular then that's a clear fade. Let me instead present a different option that should go unnoticed (at least as much as possible with only two-games). This is no sure thing by any means but we need to take shots somewhere on a slate this small. Grant has played 14, 30 and 17 minutes so far in three games. In the game with 30 minutes, he played well with 13 points and 6 rebounds leading to 21 fantasy points. Now, the reason he played 30 minutes is of course because Steven Adams got into foul trouble. But Adams is up against Rudy Gobert, which is a very difficult matchup, and there is nothing that says Adams couldn't get into foul trouble again. If he does, and you punted with Grant, then you've put yourself in an excellent spot. It's impossible to predict what will happen. I'm simply saying this scenario is feasible and I think he's someone worth considering today.

Centers

Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN [vs. HOU] (DK: $8.6K, FD: $10.2K)

You do not care about floor tonight. It's a two-game slate. Towns, on DraftKings at least, is still way too cheap for his ceiling. He was having an awful series with only 27 and 22 fantasy points in the first two games. We discussed embracing the variance in Saturday's article and how a player of Towns' caliber, with an 80 point ceiling, needs to be rostered in situations where they've gone cold and their price has dropped as a result. He bounced back in game three with 49 fantasy points. This still isn't anything to write home about, but solid nonetheless. It equaled nearly a six times return on investment on DraftKings that night because of how far his price had dropped. Today, even with the bounce-back game, his price only increased $300 which once again makes him one of the best (if not the best) values on the board. He's $1600 less than he is on FanDuel today. I can never ignore a price discrepancy that large between the two sites. When the Wolves finally got Towns involved something amazing happened - they won the game. They absolutely need to make sure they get the ball to him as much as possible tonight if they have any chance of tying this series.

Rudy Gobert, UTH [vs. OKC] (DK: $6.9K, FD: $8.1K)

Speaking of DraftKings values, Rudy Gobert is another player who is clearly in the conversation today. He's had a pretty good series so far with fantasy point performances of 27, 46 and 41 in the three games. In the last two, he's had a double-double in each with 13 points and 15 rebounds in game two and 18 points and 12 rebounds in game three. I wanted to write up Gobert prior to game three but I chickened out. Admittedly, I was hesitant because of the matchup against Steven Adams. Gobert had a good game two, but Adams got into foul trouble and only played 22 minutes. He's had little success against Adams and the Thunder this season and I wasn't ready to make him a core play solely relying on Adams to get in foul trouble again. I had limited exposure to him on my rosters that night and he came through. Now, with two solid games under his belt I feel more confident in him even in the difficult matchup. It also helps that he's at home where Gobert was significantly better this season. If you take a look at his regular season home/road splits, Gobert averaged 15 points, 11.2 rebounds and shot 68.8% from the field when at home versus 11.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and shot 54.4% from the field while on the road. Okay, so maybe significantly better is a stretch, but every stat makes a big difference to us in the world of DFS.

Steven Adams, OKC [@UTA] (DK: $5.2K, FD: $6.1K)

If you're punting at center then Adams is really your only option. It's a terrible matchup. No way to sugar coat it. Utah ranked 6th on the season in average fantasy points allowed to centers. Rudy Gobert is the highest rated individual defender in the NBA with a defensive real-plus minus of 5.20. But, with all that in mind, we need to remember this is a two-game slate. Anything is possible. You have to embrace the variance and hope it works out. Otherwise, you wind up stuck tied with 100s of other DFS players just barely inside (or worse outside) the cash line. Adams had some success against the Jazz this season putting up 34, 26 and 27 fantasy points against them during three matchups in December. Any of those outcomes would give you a solid return on your investment and wouldn't crush your lineup. If he happens to have a great night, or maybe Gobert gets into foul trouble (the way Adams did in game two) you're looking at a best-case scenario. We have him projected at less than 20% ownership which is really good on a two-game slate. I'm not confident in this recommendation but then again is anyone ever confident in most of the players they roster on small slates?

Injuries 🤕

Houston at Minnesota

Houston:

• OUT: Luc Mbah a Moute: PF/C

• UPGRADE: Ryan Anderson: PF/C

Minnesota:

• OUT: Justin Patton: C

• UPGRADE: N/A

Oklahoma City at Utah

• No injuries reported for either team

Well, there you have it. I'm not a fan of really small slates like this. It takes the skill and the research process out of the equation and adds way too much luck. You're literally just hoping to find the best possible outcome from a group of less than ideal players. If you do play today I hope this article helped a little. My thought would be that more ownership will go toward the Houston/Minnesota game since it has such a high total. Assuming that to be true, then my strategy would be to game stack the hell out of the Oklahoma City/Utah game. It's entirely possible that game could finish with a higher total and more fantasy production and if you get even some of those players at lower ownership then you'll be in a great spot. If you decide to play, then good luck! Tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry with any questions or feedback! Thank you for reading!

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