Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

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Quick update on NBA content before we jump into today's slate. As the season winds down and we have smaller and smaller slates we still want to provide you guys with what you need in your contests but we recognize the daily articles may be getting a bit repetitive as I feel like I've just been talking about the same players over and over for the past couple of weeks.

What we've decided to do, is once Round 1 is over and the Round 2 matchups are set, I'm going to write a game by game breakdown of each series with all the relevant player matchups, stats and anything else I find in my research that may help you build your DFS lineups. We'll keep this breakdown posted on the NBA projections page throughout round two so you can reference it as needed. If anything happens that is noteworthy such as injuries or unexpected news we'll be sure to update the article accordingly. We'll follow this same format for the remaining rounds as well until there are no more slates left! Hopefully, this is sufficient but I'd love to hear your feedback. We'll use it to shape how we approach our content strategy for future playoff slates in all sports.

The Rockets and Jazz took commanding leads in their series last night and today we've got two teams looking to put away their opponents so they can get ready for round two. Plus, the Celtics desperately need a win to swing the momentum back in their favor. What's interesting is two of the three games have a blowout factor with the 76ers favored by ten points and the Warriors favored by eleven points. Garbage time could be in play tonight which may make some value players interesting on this small slate. Let's get to work!

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry. I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.

Guards

Khris Middleton, MIL [@BOS] (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.5K)

In my opinion, the best player for the money in this series hasn't been Giannis Antetokounmpo or Jaylen Brown. It's been Khris Middleton. He appears to have found a weakness in the Celtics defense at small forward and is doing a great job of exploiting that (remember he's only shooting guard eligible on FanDuel). Boston ranked 15th during the regular season in average fantasy points allowed to small forwards, but rank dead last in the last ten games with the most recent four coming against Middleton himself. During that span, he's had fantasy point performances of 57, 32, 49 and 42. Perhaps Jayson Tatum is spending so much time focusing on the offensive side of the ball without Kyrie Irving on the floor that his defense is taking a negative hit. The problem, of course, is Middleton's price is rising with his production. Despite that, he has a projection of 42.6 DraftKings points ($190/pt) and 41.58 FanDuel points ($204/pt) making him one of the better values on the slate even with the added cost. This should be a great game. To this point, the home team has won each time, but Milwaukee knows they have momentum on their side and can't afford to go back home trailing. This should go down to the wire allowing extra minutes and opportunities in the process.

Terry Rozier, BOS [vs. MIL] (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.8K)

The Boston backcourt situation is about to get a little cloudy with Marcus Smart's upgrade to questionable. He has been saying for a week now he's targeting a game six return so I'd say he's not likely to play today but he's obviously getting close. Officially, he's been cleared by the Celtics but the final call on his status will be made after shootaround this afternoon. We'll need to watch this. Since it was a thumb injury, he's most likely been able to run and keep himself in shape which means he's unlikely to have any kind of minute restriction upon his return. In the meantime, we're looking at probably one more game of Terry Rozier as the starting point guard. This feels like a really good time to jump on board. Jaylen Brown is coming off a monster 54 fantasy point performance in game four. I think he's more likely to get attention from the field today which could leave Rozier to fly under the radar a bit. This could be exaggerated even further if the news on Marcus Smart doesn't come out until the last minute. Rozier has seen his price stay relatively flat and even fall a bit with two less than exciting (though not bad) games recently. He's much more interesting on DraftKings with a $1000 discount compared to FanDuel. On FanDuel, you can do better in terms of value though he's likely to be lower owned due to the factors we already mentioned and the higher price tag. I like Rozier to have a big game today, with Boston returning home, where he had 37 and 44 fantasy points in games one and two.

J.J. Redick (DK: $5.6K, FD: $5.6K) and Marco Belinelli (DK: $5.3K, FD: $5.7K), PHI (vs. MIA)

These guys are really hard to figure out. They've been priced similar, have had similar fantasy production and are playing nearly identical minutes. The only difference is one starts and the other comes off the bench. The first two games of the series, they even had similar results with Belinelli scoring 39 and 21 fantasy points and Redick scoring 35 and 21 fantasy points. What's interesting is how Embiid's return to the lineup has impacted both of them. In game three, Embiid's first game back, Belinelli had 38 fantasy points while Redick had 15. In game four, Redick had 36 fantasy points while Belinelli had 18. This is only a two-game sample, so I wouldn't put a ton of weight into it, but it would appear that Embiid's return to the lineup only leaves room for one of these guys to succeed at a time. I would no longer consider rostering them together, even on small slates like today, as we had talked about in this article before. Embiid simply commands too much usage when he's on the court and somebody gets left behind as a result. But, guessing which player has the big game today is tough. If forced to choose, I'm leaning Belinelli. I believe strongly the 76ers will run away with this one just like the spread indicates. Of the two it should be Belinelli who would pick up some extra minutes in garbage time.

Shaun Livingston, GS [vs. SA] (DK: $3.3K, FD: $4K)

There are, surprisingly, several good options at guard today despite the small slate. Let me throw a punt option in here for those of you playing in large field tournaments. Livingston has put together two solid games in a row with 23 fantasy points in games three and four (FanDuel scoring). He's also seen a slight increase in minutes averaging 20 per game over the last three compared to 16.3 minutes per game during the regular season. Tonight, we should see the minutes approach something closer to 25, as I believe the fun and games are over and the Warriors will mop the floor with the Spurs tonight. They are home, eleven point favorites and looking to put this one away so they can start getting prepped for their battle with the New Orleans Pelicans. This should lead to some garbage time for guys like Livingston, which put him squarely in the conversation on a three-game slate.

Forwards

Ben Simmons, PHI [vs. MIA] (DK: $10.1K, FD: $10.5K)

Simmons does not need to be upgraded but it looks like he could get one anyway. Josh Richardson, arguably Miami's best on-ball defender, is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury after he collided with Joel Embiid for a loose ball in the previous game. He briefly left and returned to the game later on. So, that's an encouraging sign. He also said he would do everything he could to play in game five for what it's worth. Either way, Simmons is in play on this three-game slate. If Richardson misses, however, I like him even more. He's been great in the series with fantasy point performances of 52, 50, 53 and 57. He's also been playing nearly 40 minutes per game. Somehow, even with the excellent production, his price has managed to stay relatively flat. On DraftKings he was $10.2K in game three and on FanDuel he started this series at $10.5K. So, basically no difference despite the strong performances. Tonight, the 76ers return to Philadelphia looking to close out this series in front of the home crowd. I like them to do just that, for Simmons to be a big contributor, and then Philadelphia gets a few days to rest while they wait for their second-round opponent.  

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL [@BOS] (DK: $9.9K, FD: $11.3K)

Really digging deep with the Simmons and Antetokounmpo recommendations huh? I know, but Simmons feels to me like his biggest game is coming with the 76ers looking to close out the series at home and the possibility of no Josh Richardson. I had to mention him. Then, I saw Antetokounmpo's price on DraftKings and I choked on my breakfast a little. No seriously, eggs went down the wrong pipe and had to get up from my computer to get some water. Under $10K? For this guy? He's averaging nearly 40 minutes per game in this series and I've said this probably a dozen times in the past week but he's absolutely crushed Boston this season. Is he getting a price decrease because Milwaukee is going back on the road? If so, he's actually played better against the Celtics when in Boston with fantasy point performances of 63, 55, 67 and 56 versus 60, 57, 43, and 42 at home (regular season included). I understand dropping the price a little as his last two games weren't ideal but $500 after game four and $700 since the start of this series seems like way too much. You're pretty much forced to play him now on DraftKings. He's the best value on the board today with a projection of 55 equaling $180 per point. I do think Boston ultimately wins tonight, being back on their home floor, but that doesn't mean ABC won't have an outstanding game in the process

Justise Winslow, MIA [@PHI] (DK: $5K, FD: $4.5K)

I've read a bunch of sources about who would be the replacement for Josh Richardson should he miss tonight's game. The conclusion I've drawn is there's no clear benefactor with players like Wade, Ellington and Winslow all likely to pick up the slack in his absence. Something that stood out to me, and therefore gives me a reason to believe Winslow should get the majority of the extra work, is his defense. Winslow is actually ranked third among active small forwards in the NBA with a defensive real plus-minus rating of 2.09 behind only Kyle Anderson of the Spurs (3.39) and Robert Covington of the 76ers (4.36). I didn't realize he was this strong a defender and therefore it would make the most sense for Winslow to be tasked with trying to slow down Ben Simmons in this spot without Richardson. We also know the ceiling on Winslow is very high as he already had a 43 fantasy point performance in this series. Despite that big game, his price has dropped $800 on FanDuel while remaining relatively flat on DraftKings. If you're going to give me a player with a mid-40s ceiling, for $5K or less on both sites, and a (sort of) clear path to 30 minutes (if Richardson is out) then he's someone I'm going to have heavy exposure to. Keep an eye on the news here. Even if Richardson plays, perhaps he's less than 100%, and that could still open up additional minutes. We'll have to wait and see how this looks closer to lock.

Centers

Joel Embiid, PHI [vs. MIA] (DK: $8.9K, FD: $9.5K)

We'll get the obvious option out of the way first. You know who really wants to close out this series tonight? Embiid would love to finish off the Heat and get some extra days rest and give his orbital fracture more time to heal before the next series. He clearly doesn't like playing with the mask on. Apparently, he tried to get on the court without the mask at one point and Coach Brown lost his mind before telling Embiid to put it back on. Mask or no mask I really like the 76ers as a whole tonight playing back on their home court. Truth be told, I don't think Embiid is a great value today. He's had 46 and 40 fantasy points since returning which is only about 4-5 times return on investment. Not enough if you want to take down a tournament. We have him projected for 42.58 DraftKings points today ($209/pt) and 42.74 FanDuel points ($222/pt). It's a small slate, however, and anything can happen. We know the ceiling on Embiid is very high so I'm not telling you he's a bad option I just personally believe there are better spots to spend your money tonight. On FanDuel, however, where the options at center are pretty limited, I understand the reasoning for viewing him as a potential "must-play". I think center is likely a place where people try to save money tonight so rostering Embiid and spending up at center could actually be a contrarian approach.

Al Horford, BOS [vs. MIL] (DK: $6.9K, FD: $8K)

After his monster game one with 57 fantasy points, Horford has come back down to earth with 33, 21 and 33 in their last three games. The Celtics have gone 1-2 in that three-game stretch and are now tied with the Bucks heading back to Boston for game five. This is, obviously, a critical game for the Celtics. They need to swing the momentum back in their favor and they definitely don't want to go back to Milwaukee down 3-2. Horford needs to step up and lead this group of young players like he did in game one. He's most appealing on DraftKings, where his price has started to reset after game one after he increased $1300. He's now dropped $300 over the last two games to get him back under $7K. He's $1100 more expensive on FanDuel, but because of limited options at center, he's in heavy consideration on that site as well. As we know, it's a great matchup, with the Bucks ranking dead last in defensive efficiency against centers and 21st in average fantasy points allowed. I think Horford comes through tonight, in front of the home crowd, and gets Boston back in control of this series.

Thon Maker, MIL [@BOS] (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.5K)

Here's your punt option today at center. John Henson was just ruled out for tonight so this opens up some value once again on Milwaukee. I didn't buy into the Maker hype after his 34 fantasy points in game three and he came back with 23 (26 FanDuel) fantasy points in game four. Certainly not as impressive but still a solid return considering his price tag. I still don't think I can go here, especially now that Henson is out, as Maker will be popular again. There is something about chalk Thon Maker that just really doesn't sound right. If you play the percentages I think he's likely to let you down more times than not. If I get burned by not playing him then so be it. So, this is a fade for me but I understand the interest in him which is why he was worth writing about. I was actually hoping Henson would return today then I think I would have more interest in Maker for GPPs. Henson's return would undoubtedly cause the field to jump off of Maker and I think that's when I would risk jumping on. The strategy, of course, is hoping the Bucks realize how much of an upgrade he has been and still find ways to get him involved. This is no longer a scenario but could be something to think about in future games. He's a great salary saver tonight and if he gets you somewhere in the range of 25 or more fantasy points you'll be in a great position to succeed.

Injuries 🤕

Milwaukee at Boston

Milwaukee:

• OUT: John Henson: PF/C

• UPGRADE: Tyler Zeller: PF/C, Thon Maker: PF/C, Jabari Parker: SF/PF

Boston:

• QUEST: Marcus Smart: PG/SG

• OUT: Kyrie Irving: PG

• UPGRADE: Terry Rozier: PG/SG, Jaylen Brown: SG/SF

Miami at Philadelphia

Miami:

• QUEST: Josh Richardson: SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Justise Winslow: SG/SF, Wayne Ellington: SG/SF, Dwayne Wade: PG/SG

Philadelphia:

• No injuries reported

San Antonio at Golden State

San Antonio:

• No injuries reported (Kawhi doesn't count anymore)

Golden State:

• OUT: Patrick McCaw: PG/SG/SF

• OUT: Steph Curry: PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Andre Iguodala: PG/SG/SF

I like this slate a lot. I think the possible blowouts add a new element into the mix as you'll need to consider how these scenarios play out and if that would open up any value. I'm definitely going to have some exposure to bench players from Golden State. They won both games at home very easily and I think you'll see the same again tonight. I like Philadelphia as well to win but I have more faith in Miami keeping that one competitive than I do in San Antonio (man that sounds weird when I read it back to myself). I won't take quite as many shots on Philadelphia bench players getting garbage time as I will on Golden State players. Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry with any questions or feedback! Thank you for reading!

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