Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.  

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Quick update on NBA content before we jump into today's slate.  As the season winds down and we have smaller and smaller slates we still want to provide you guys with what you need in your contests but we recognize the daily articles may be getting a bit repetitive as I feel like I've just been talking about the same players over and over for the past couple of weeks.  

What we've decided to do, is once round one is over and the round two matchups are set, I'm going to write a game by game breakdown of each series with all the relevant player matchups, stats and anything else I find in my research that may help you build your DFS lineups.  We'll keep this breakdown posted on the NBA projections page throughout round two so you can reference it as needed.  If anything happens that is noteworthy such as injuries or unexpected news we'll be sure to update the article accordingly.  We'll follow this same format for the remaining rounds as well until there are no more slates left!  Hopefully, this is sufficient but I'd love to hear your feedback.  We'll use it to shape how we approach our content strategy for future playoff slates in all sports.   

It's a four-game slate today!  Much better size as there is at least some variation on the board including several high priced options that will need to be prioritized.  We've got multiple players and teams who started off their respective series very well on their home courts and then have played poorly more recently on the road.  Today, they are returning home and looking to get the momentum back.  We saw similar scenarios last night and all three teams who returned home won their games and had multiple players come back with strong fantasy performances.  I think this theme continues to play out today and we'll focus on that as part of our strategy throughout the article.  Let's get to work!

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.  

Guards

Russell Westbrook, OKC [vs. UTA] (DK: $10.6, FD: $10.6)

Well, I was correct in predicting we'd get "Angry Westbrook" on Monday as he got into an altercation with Rudy Gobert, received a post-game technical foul, and even had the incident reviewed by the league (though it was never really in danger of a suspension there is no way the commissioner would suspend him for a critical game like this over a small incident like that).  What I was wrong about was despite being angry it didn't translate into a big fantasy night.  It was another subpar day at the office for Westbrook, his second game in a row with less than 50 fantasy points.  Regardless,  I'm going right back to the well tonight.  Now, he'll be even angrier, this is an elimination game, and the Thunder are back on their home court where Westbrook played better in the first two games of the series with 58 and 59 fantasy points.  It will be interesting to see where people land in terms of the three studs at the guard position on this slate all being priced similarly on DraftKings.  Harden is 10.9K, Westbrook is 10.6K and Wall is 10.5K.  On FanDuel, Wall is 10.7K and Westbrook is 10.6K while Harden is in a league of his own at 11.8K.  Prioritizing these guys will be important.  We'll talk about this more at the end of the article.  For now, Westbrook will be a core play for me today.  His price is discounted right now and he's trending down which will hopefully lower his ownership (it will still be high but maybe lower than some of the other high priced players).  I'm all in.        

Derrick Rose, MIN [@HOU] (DK: $4.6K, FD: $4K)

Rose has had an excellent series.  It's true, he's been aided a bit by Jeff Teague getting into some foul trouble in one game, getting hurt in another, and just playing awful in general but even in limited minutes, Rose has been very efficient.   In game one and three, he had 24 fantasy points each in just 21 and 24 minutes respectively.  In game four, he had 30 fantasy points in 32 minutes with the Wolves getting completely blown out and him getting some garbage time run.  With this series now shifting back to Houston, who are heavy favorites, I have no reason to believe a blowout isn't one of the more likely scenarios again tonight.  Rose, who is only under contract until the end of the year, would love to have a strong finish to his season as he looks for a new home this offseason.  He should play at least 20 minutes tonight and plenty of room for more and with his per minute production from a fantasy standpoint, I like him to also get at least 20 fantasy points with upside for more.  He makes a lot of sense as a punt play tonight at guard.  

Delon Wright, TOR [vs. WAS] (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.8K)

Ugh, don't make me do it again.  I've rostered Wright a lot recently and it's had mixed results.  It's just really difficult to ignore a player with his price tag and minutes per game, especially on these small slates where our options are limited.  So far he's played 25, 27, 19 and 27 minutes in this series.  That's a lot of playing time for a player priced well under $5K on both sites.  He's had two less than ideal games in a row, while Toronto was on the road, putting up 11 and 23 fantasy points.  My hope is that this scares people off of him.  With the Raptors returning home, where Wright has been better in this series with 33 and 27 fantasy points in games one and two, this seems like the perfect time to jump back on board (or stay with him if you're like me).  His home/road splits during the regular season were fairly similar.  The only significant difference worth mentioning was he shot much better from beyond the arc at home (40.3%) than on the road (32.9%).  Fred VanFleet is doubtful so there's nothing standing in his way of getting the minutes.  I'll be mixing him in with Rose as my punt options at guard.           

Forwards

Paul George, OKC [vs. UTA] (DK: $8K, FD: $8.1K)

The Thunder are too good of a team to just roll over like this.  I'm not ready to count them out just yet though I admit the Jazz look really good.  Tonight, the series shifts back to Oklahoma City and I think we see some momentum (and fantasy production) shift back to the Thunder.  George had 49 and 40 fantasy points at home in the first two games of the series (including a double-double with 10 rebounds) compared to 34 and 45 fantasy points in games three and four on the road.  He managed to avoid a major spike in his price after the strong start to the series so he's still priced where he can easily return value with plenty of room for upside given his ceiling.  Oklahoma City brought George in to help them compete for a championship.  With their backs against the wall, facing elimination, it will be interesting to see how he responds.  I think we get at least one more dose of "Playoff P" tonight and he leads the Thunder to a win before they ultimately get eliminated back in Utah in game six.  Just a prediction on my part but I'd be really surprised for them to drop two games at home in this series.   

Serge Ibaka, TOR [vs. WAS] (DK: $5.7K, FD: $6.1K)

The Raptors have the second highest implied total on the board today at 111.5 which is nearly identical to their season average.  I'd like to get some exposure to them tonight.  Ibaka, while not an exciting name from a fantasy standpoint, has some upside potential in this spot yet I don't think he'll be a popular option today.  In the two games in the Air Canada Centre, he produced 46 and 31 fantasy points.  In the two games on the road in Washington, he had just 12 and 24 fantasy points.  Looking at his home/road splits, he's averaging 11.5 more points, 2.5 more rebounds, and 1.5 more blocks at home during this series than he is on the road.  His field goal percentage is significantly better as well.  He's shooting 54.5% from the field at home and only 33.3% on the road.  It's worth noting, in their last game, Jonas Valanciunas only played 15 minutes and Ibaka slid over to center for much of the game and played a series high 34 minutes.  Even at the end of the game, after Jakob Poeltl fouled out, Ibaka remained at center and Pascal Siakam entered instead of Valanciunas.  Not sure what to make of this but the extra minutes are certainly encouraging.  For the most part, home teams have been dominating these playoffs.  The Raptors looked like they were going to run away with this series after the first two games but the Wizards came storming back.  Look for Toronto to regain control today and for Ibaka to exceed value on his home court.     

Kelly Oubre, WAS [@TOR] (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.3K)

A punt option at forward today is Kelly Oubre. Quitely (and maybe surprisingly), he is putting together a good series.  For me, Oubre is best known as a player who always seems to let me down when he's the chalk value option on certain slates.  Think Kyle O'Quinn or Alex Len.  You just never know what you are going to get out of the guy and you never feel great when you click his name.  Tonight, if I choose to roster him, it will be even worse cause now the minutes aren't as secure with him coming off the bench.  But, you can't deny in the first four games of this series he's been a sneaky value option.  He's exceeded his projection in three of the four games so far with fantasy point totals of 12, 26, 23 and 23.  That's a nice little return on your investment for a player who's going to be low owned and provide you with some salary relief in the process.  I won't go out of my way to roster him.  But, if he happens to be where I land on the last couple of people I need to fill my roster I'll be okay with it.       

Centers

Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN [@HOU] (DK: $8.5K, FD: $9.5K)

For the most part, my strategy today is to focus on teams/players who played well in the first couple of games of the series while at home, struggled on the road, and are now shifting back.  My hope is that the average DFS player will overlook the splits and focus simply on recent performance.  This is why much of my interest today is centered on the Raptors, Rockets, and Thunder (sorry Cleveland but outside of LeBron I just don't trust you).  Obviously, this doesn't mean I will ONLY play players from those teams.  But I think the majority of my exposure will come from them.  One place where I'd be looking at a road player is Karl Anthony-Towns.  We've talked about him a lot in these articles recently so I won't recap everything in detail.  But the bottom line, he hasn't been good in the series so far.  He showed some promise when they went to Minnesota for games three and four but when on the road he was awful putting up just 26 and 23 fantasy points.  But, and again I know I've said this a lot lately, for a player with his ceiling I just can't ignore his price.  He's even dropped on FanDuel today ($700).  He is the least expensive he's been on FanDuel today since back on February 13th when he was $9.4K.  Guess who they played that night?  Houston.  Guess how many fantasy points Towns put up that night?  65!  Nearly seven times return on investment.  That's what you're looking for in a tournament.  Remember, the ceilings on these guys rarely change.  Towns was nothing short of brutal in games one and two but I'm going to continue to roster him at these prices knowing that a 60+ point game (and seven or more times return on investment) are well within his range of outcomes.          

Clint Capela, HOU [vs. MIN] (DK: $7.3K, FD: $8.2K)

The Rockets have the highest implied total on the board tonight at 114.3.  They are the only team on this slate with an implied total that's above their season average in points per game.  They are massive twelve point favorites but I'm not concerned about the blowout as Houston always seems to give their starter's minutes in whatever situation.  Plus, Houston will win this game and end the series so they can have at least a couple nights to rest while they wait for the winner of the Thunder and Jazz.  Capela has arguably had the best matchup, from a fantasy perspective, of any player in the playoffs.  The Timberwolves gave up 33.2 fantasy points per game to centers which ranked 25th during the regular season.  It's difficult to find matchups which are that favorable to fantasy production when the competition is so much stiffer in the playoffs.  I like Capela in a stack with Harden and/or Paul.  I think all three of these guys have big games tonight.  We have Capela/Harden listed as a top assist combo for tonight.  Capela, who has been in the perfect lineup for two of the four games in this series so far, should be a lock for a double-double and makes for an excellent option at an otherwise unexciting position.        

Jakob Poeltl, TOR [vs. WAS] (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.6K)

Here's my wildcard of the day.  The Raptors seem set on playing Jonas Valanciunas limited minutes.  I don't know if there's something going on there that we don't know about or what but it's part of why I have interest in Serge Ibaka and it's part of what makes Poeltl interesting tonight as well.  In case you need a disclaimer here, this is a long shot.  Large field GPP only and minimal exposure.  In their previous game, with Valanciunas only getting 15 minutes, Poeltl received his highest minutes of the series with 24, playing mainly power forward while Serge Ibaka was the primary center on the floor.  Poeltl took full advantage of his playing time with 10 points and 7 rebounds leading to 21 fantasy points and being a member of the perfect lineup that night.  If he sees similar playing time tonight and has similar production, you'd be looking at around seven times return on investment for a nearly minimum priced player.  These are the types of gems you need to find to win a GPP.  I have no clue if this playing time is sustainable, or if something was wrong with Valanciunas or what the deal is but this situation stood out in my research today and I thought it was worth sharing.      

Injuries 🤕

Washington at Toronto

Washington:

• OUT: Jodie Meeks: SG/SF

• UPGRADE: N/A

Toronto:

• DTD: OG Anunoby: SG/SF

• DOUBT: Fred VanFleet: PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Delon Wright: PG/SG

Indiana at Cleveland

Indiana: 

• DTD: Joseph Young: PG/SG

• UPGRADE: N/A

Cleveland:

• QUEST: George Hill: PG

• UPGRADE: Jose Calderon: PG, Jordan Clarkson: PG/SG

Utah at Oklahoma City

No injuries reported for either team

Minnesota at Houston

Minnesota:

• QUEST: Tyus Jones: PG/SG

• UPGRADE: N/A

Houston:

• OUT: Luc Mbah a Moute: PF/C

• UPGRADE: Ryan Anderson: PF/C

I wanted to spend a little more time deciphering the high priced players on this slate.  Prioritizing these guys is important and I think there's some interesting strategy involved in figuring out who to roster.  LeBron is still the best play on the board, with all the usage he commands and the lack of support surrounding him it's really hard to argue with that. I'd place Harden next, at least on DraftKings, because of how favorable his matchup is and the Rockets high total tonight. You can argue differently on FanDuel because of the increased price but even then I think I'd still rank him second with the Rockets returning home.  Then I'd go Westbrook who is also returning home AND in an elimination game, and finally Wall. I've got nothing against Wall I just don't think the ceiling is as high as the other three even though he's playing so well right now. As far as strategy, I'm all in on Westbrook as a core play.  This could be a mistake, but he's getting a lot of attention right now for his poor play, especially on the defensive side, where Rubio has been burning him.  He was in the spotlight, even more, yesterday with his "incident" being reviewed by the league.  I think he's got one more huge game in him to shut up the critics and there would be no better time than tonight, at home in an elimination game.  I can see myself playing Westbrook together with either Harden (DraftKings) or Wall (FanDuel) and taking the salary savings over pairing someone up with James. I think either of those combinations can put up similar fantasy production but the savings will help you round out your roster.  Would love to hear what you guys think about this so make sure to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry with your comments/feedback.  You can also follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry.  Thank you for reading!   

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